5 key U.S. election turning points Canadians should watch for

Americans are facing a determination astir the future of their country and nary substance which president they choose, Canada cannot flight the propulsion of governmental polarization from its closest neighbour.

Vice-President Kamala Harris and erstwhile president Donald Trump contiguous starkly antithetic paths guardant for the United States and the contention for the White House appears to beryllium highly close.

The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading spouse and its adjacent president volition beryllium successful complaint during the reappraisal of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico statement successful 2026.

Harris has campaigned connected the information that she voted against the trilateral agreement, saying it didn’t bash capable to support American workers oregon the environment. The vice-president is mostly expected to support President Joe Biden’s Buy American procurement rules.

The centrepiece of Trump’s docket is simply a projected 10 per cent across-the-board tariff.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports spell to the U.S. and 60 per cent of Canada’s gross home merchandise is derived from trade.

The run has been unprecedented and tumultuous. Biden removed himself from the Democrats’ summons aft a disastrous statesmanlike statement and Harris became the statesmanlike campaigner a small much than 3 months earlier predetermination day.

There were besides 2 assassination attempts connected Trump. The representation of humor streaming down his face, with a fist successful the air, became a rallying telephone for the Republican leader’s astir ardent supporters.

Here are 5 things to ticker for arsenic the votes travel in:

Whichever campaigner gets 270 electoral assemblage votes gets the presidency. Pennsylvania’s 19 votes could beryllium the astir important this election.

Both campaigns person indicated the authorities is portion of their way to victory, and whoever wins the Keystone State whitethorn lone request 2 different battleground states to instrumentality the White House.

What happens successful Pennsylvania whitethorn besides awesome voting successful the 2 different Midwestern battleground states.

“If you are looking astatine Pennsylvania, deliberation astir however voters successful Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are akin to each other,” said Matthew Lebo, a specializer successful U.S. authorities astatine Western University successful London, Ont.

Americans surviving successful six different battleground states volition play a captious relation successful the result connected Tuesday.

Wisconsin and Michigan went to Trump successful 2016 and swung to Biden successful 2020.

Michigan whitethorn beryllium of involvement to galore Canadians: Canada is that state’s apical export marketplace and it imported astir US$50.9 cardinal successful goods from its bluish neighbour past year.

Georgia, North Carolina and the sunbelt states of Arizona and Nevada could besides beryllium cardinal indicators for who volition instrumentality the White House.

American voters volition beryllium making aggregate choices successful the voting booth, electing not lone the president but besides members of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Those down-ballot races are highly important to find who controls each enclosure of Congress.

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The Democrats presently power the Senate by a slim borderline and 34 seats are up for grabs.

The Senate controls the process for presidents to name furniture positions and has powerfulness implicit treaties. Depending connected who is successful control, determination could beryllium consequences for Canada, Lebo said.

For example, Trump has suggested vaccine-skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would person a large relation successful the administration, including nationalist wellness policy.

“As Canadians, we privation Americans to proceed to get vaccinated,” Lebo said.

Specific races to watch: Democrat Sen. Jon Tester against Republican Tim Sheehy successful Montana; GOP Sen. Ted Cruz versus Democrat Colin Allred successful Texas and longtime Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown against Republican Bernie Moreno.

All 435 seats successful the House are up for grabs this predetermination and the result could person far-reaching consequences for the incoming president. Republicans presently person a majority, but lone by a tiny margin.

Specific races to watch: Virginia’s open-seat contention betwixt Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson; different open-seat contention successful Michigan betwixt Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett; and Nebraska’s combat betwixt Republican incumbent Don Bacon and Democratic challenger Tony Vargas.

Trump has spent his last days connected the run way pushing baseless claims astir the integrity of the election. He besides said helium shouldn’t person near the White House astatine the extremity of his past tenure, erstwhile helium mislaid the predetermination to Biden.

Whether his claims volition motivate supporters to the polls remains to beryllium seen but there’s interest it could sow chaos successful the aftermath of the election, akin to erstwhile Trump loyalists stormed Capitol Hill connected Jan. 6, 2021.

There are besides concerns astir misinformation being dispersed by overseas actors. U.S. quality officials person already pointed to videos purporting to amusement elector fraud successful Georgia and Pennsylvania arsenic the enactment of “Russian power actors.”

U.S. officials accidental the extremity is to stoke part and rise questions astir the result of the election.