5 reasons why Donald Trump won & the Democrats lost

This volition beryllium the archetypal clip that the Republicans person won the fashionable ballot since 2004, erstwhile incumbent George W Bush won 50.7% of the nationalist ballot compared to Democratic challenger John Kerry, who was astatine 48.3%.

In fact, this mightiness extremity up being the party’s champion show since 1988, erstwhile past Vice President George HW Bush basked successful the afterglow of his fashionable predecessor Ronald Reagan to triumph much than 53% of the nationalist vote, and 426 Electoral College votes.

Here are 5 reasons wherefore Donald Trump won — and Kamala Harris and the Democrats lost.

1. 01

   Voters’ miseries & anti-incumbency

   Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee did not alteration the cardinal dynamic of the race. As an nonfiction successful The Telegraph enactment it: “incumbents don’t triumph erstwhile voters are miserable”. And the past 4 years nether Joe Biden did marque galore Americans miserable: ostentation ran rampant, unemployment was rife, and the system witnessed a steep downturn. 

   Not that Biden could person prevented a planetary pandemic oregon stopped Russia from invading Ukraine, premier drivers down the United States’ economical downturn, helium inactive copped the voters blasted for their dwindling fortunes. Even though things are overmuch amended present — by immoderate accounts, the Biden medication has really been precise palmy successful starring the US retired of an economical situation — this seems to not person registered successful the mean voters’ calculus, who inactive vividly remembers the post-pandemic difficulties.

   Contrast this with the Trump presidency, during which the banal markets soared, unemployment fell to historically debased levels, and ostentation was manageable, it is not each excessively astonishing wherefore astir voters favoured Trump implicit the incumbent vice president connected economy. And pre-election polling had suggested that this was the azygous astir important contented successful this election.

   Harris simply did not committedness the transformative docket that voters yearned for, and though Trump’s propositions person been acold from definitive, positive, oregon adjacent deliverable, his committedness to bring alteration that voters truthful desperately look to privation has propelled him to an unprecedented victory.

2. 02

   Support & turnout successful Rural America

   Since the 1960s, Rural America has shifted its enactment to the Republicans. How good the enactment performs statesmanlike elections has often been straight correlated to elector turnout successful agrarian counties — higher the turnout, amended the probability of a Republican winning the contention to the White House. 

   White agrarian voters helped propel Donald Trump to the White House successful 2016, and they look to person done truthful again successful 2024. Rural region aft agrarian country, particularly successful the 7 plaything states, saw Trump amended his 2020 numbers some successful implicit presumption and comparative to Harris. Put unneurotic with a downturn successful municipality turnout — a cardinal for Democrats to triumph — the result was ne'er successful question.

   Beyond the aforementioned economical concerns — immoderate of which are existent portion others much a merchandise of cognition — agrarian voters person agelong felt ignored, patronised, oregon outrightly denigrated by the Democrats, considered to beryllium the enactment of wide elites. Despite spending millions of dollars and important run clip to tribunal agrarian voters implicit the past decades, the Democrats person fundamentally failed to combat this perception. And for bully reason. 

   Consider Hillary Clinton referring to Trump voters arsenic “a handbasket of deplorables” during the 2016 campaign. Or The New York Times’ bestseller White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy (2024) which argues that agrarian Whites are “racist, xenophobic, anti-immigrant, anti-gay”, and airs an existential menace to our republic.

3. 03

   Trump’s expanding enactment among minorities

   Democrats person agelong believed that they are the enactment of the United States’ myriad minorities, that they correspond the astir marginsalised radical of the country. And number voters, particularly radical of colour, person traditionally backed the party. This clip around, however, Trump has managed to technologist a wide conjugation of enactment and made heavy inroads into the Democratic basal — deeper than Harris expected and could afford.

   In fact, Trump is acceptable to triumph a bigger proportionality of the non-white ballot than immoderate Republican campaigner for astatine slightest the past 40 years. This has allowed him to nullify the Democrats’ vantage successful truthful called strongholds. Take for lawsuit Georgia’s Baldwin County, wherever 40% of voters are African American, which has voted Republican for the precise archetypal clip since 2004.

   Trump has besides earned a bigger stock of the Hispanic ballot than ever before, thing which is apt to get him implicit the enactment successful the states of Nevada and Arizona. This singular conjugation of rural, debased educated, blue-collar voters with important pockets of Hispanic and Black enactment has proved that Trumpism has a acold bigger basal than Democrats person reckoned with, and the party’s authorities has seemingly taken galore of its halfway voters for granted.

   As an opinion nonfiction successful The Indian Express enactment it: “His speeches are rambling, yes, but the run has focussed connected issues… The Harris camp, connected the different hand, bought into the TikTokification of governmental grammar and successful doing so, mislaid the vocabulary to code cardinal issues”.

4. 04

   Women not the trump paper Harris hoped for

   Both successful Rural America and among minorities, the uptick successful enactment for Donald Trump was driven by antheral voters. According to an nonfiction successful Time magazine, “Exit polls showed Trump winning ample numbers of Latino men successful cardinal battleground states, improving his numbers with that radical successful Pennsylvania from 27% to 42%. Nationally, Trump's enactment among Latino men leaped from 36% to 54%.”

   This acold outdid the enactment Kamala Harris gained — and had banked connected — from women crossed the governmental aisle. Crucially, Trump “held dependable nationally with achromatic women, shocking Democrats who had expected a post-Dobbs uprising”.

   Since the conservative-majority Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe vs Wade ruling successful 2022, reproductive rights person been a cardinal plank of Democratic politics. For Harris, her stance arsenic a staunch defender of termination rights was ever going to beryllium her trump paper against the Trump juggernaut — thing that would galvanise women, irrespective of contention oregon governmental affiliation, to ballot for her. Not lone did she bask constricted occurrence successful this regard, this was offset by the acold bigger inroads Trump made among men crossed the governmental aisle.

   Overall, Trump led among men by astir 22 percent points, compared to lone 14 percent points that Harris led among women. In an predetermination which did not spot women importantly outvoting men (as they person done successful the past), this was simply excessively large a sex spread for Harris to overcome.

5. 05

   Democrats’ hypocrisy, Trump’s authenticity

   The Democrats person agelong fashioned themselves to beryllium the enactment which believes successful democracy, upholds the United States’ wide values, and is the bulwark against the alleged demagoguery and authoritarianism of the likes of Donald Trump.

   But soaring rhetoric astir redeeming American ideology flies successful the look of overmuch of what the Joe Biden presidency has allowed to instrumentality spot — oregon actively engaged in.

   Take for lawsuit Israel’s actions successful Gaza, and the Biden administration’s steadfast enactment for the Zionist nation. How tin a enactment which claims to basal for wide values enactment the wide killings of Palestinian civilians by a authorities that has agelong stripped them of their rights?

   And however tin a enactment past expect Arab Americans — traditionally a voter-block for the Democrats — to past ballot for them aft they virtually spot household members being blown to smithereens? Dearborn, a metropolis successful the plaything authorities of Michigan, with among the largest populations of Arab Americans successful the US saw a elector turnout of lone 39.6%, “a NOTA rebuke if ever determination was one”.

   In the look of Democrats’ seeming doublespeak, Trump appears to beryllium authentic and unapologetic. Is helium a person to Arab Americans? Perhaps not. But helium does not unreal to be.

   While Trump mightiness ne'er marque America large again, his authorities is retired determination for everyone to judge. Unlike the Democrats, who person vacillated connected issues, and made hollow appeals to larger esoteric concerns without having the gumption to backmost their words with action.