A narrow margin: Trump taps House Republicans for his second administration

First, determination was House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y.

President-elect Trump tapped her to service arsenic ambassador to the United Nations.

Then determination was Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla. 

The incoming President asked Waltz to go his nationalist information adviser.

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Then Mr. Trump selected erstwhile Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., for lawyer general, and Gaetz promptly quit.

That’s rather a drain connected 1 instauration successful conscionable a fewer days.

Anybody other from the House?

"I cognize he's already pulled a fewer truly talented radical retired of the House. Hopefully, nary much for a small portion until peculiar elections," said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.

It’s astir the math.

President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. Capitol. (Getty Images)

With Stefanik, Waltz and Gaetz connected board, House Republicans apt people a bulk of 221 seats to 214 for the Democrats. It’s a borderline of seven. But it means the GOP tin lone suffer 3 votes connected immoderate fixed rotation telephone and inactive walk the contented astatine manus without needing assistance from the different side.

With Gaetz retired and Stefanik and Waltz departing, that bulk shrinks to 218-214. A borderline of 4 votes. But Republicans tin present lone suffer 1 vote. And determination is astir ne'er cleanable attendance successful the House. Absences are inevitable. 

But what if determination are much departures?

A elder House GOP root told Fox earlier the departure of Gaetz the Republican bulk could suffer nary much than 2 House members to the Trump administration.

"I don’t cognize if the medication has a fig successful their head," the root said.

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And remember, you can’t name a House member. You tin bash that successful the Senate. But not the House. Governors indispensable telephone peculiar elections to capable these seats. So, successful the lawsuit of Stefanik, it whitethorn instrumentality Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul 3 to 4 months to telephone a peculiar election. 

Naturally, that presumes the spot stays successful the GOP column. These are Republican seats. But determination are surprises successful peculiar elections. The accustomed beingness of voters don’t ever amusement up.

"I would ideate Hochul, fixed her cynical effort astatine politics, volition apt effort to usage the afloat 90 days," groused Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y.

Meantime, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., got connected the horn to Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis successful hopes of calling a peculiar predetermination successful conscionable a fewer weeks for the spot near vacant by Gaetz. The anticipation is that the territory volition nonstop a Republican successor to Gaetz to Washington conscionable aft the caller year.

This is wherefore you tin perchance quash chatter astir whether Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine mightiness name Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, to the Senate spot of Vice President-elect JD Vance. Under different circumstances, Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., could beryllium successful play for an medication station oregon to adjacent win Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., successful the Senate if he’s confirmed arsenic caput of state. But that script creates yet different House vacancy.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., waves connected signifier astatine the Republican National Convention astatine the Fiserv Forum successful Milwaukee July 17.  (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

"President Trump afloat understands and appreciates the mathematics here. And it's conscionable a numbers game," said Johnson. "But each azygous ballot volition count, due to the fact that if idiosyncratic gets sick oregon has a car mishap oregon a precocious formation connected their plane, past it affects the votes connected the floor. So, I deliberation helium and the medication are good attuned to that."

Johnson added, "I don't expect that we volition person much members leaving."

Then President-elect Trump drafted Gaetz.

House Republicans struggled astatine times to beforehand their ain docket with a akin constrictive bulk implicit the past 2 years. They leaned connected Democrats to debar aggregate authorities shutdowns and to assistance the indebtedness ceiling. They failed connected their archetypal effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Republicans dithered for a expansive full of 27 days connected 2 antithetic occasions past twelvemonth trying to fig retired who would beryllium talker of the House. 

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., couldn’t go talker astatine the opening of Congress due to the fact that the GOP numbers were truthful thin. House Republicans past struggled for much than 3 weeks past autumn to elite a successor to McCarthy for the aforesaid reasons. 

So, what is past is prologue.

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A nonaccomplishment of elemental parliamentary algebra could stymie the docket of President-elect Trump.

"Between the talker and (incoming Senate Majority Leader John) Thune, R-S.D., there's a existent knowing we've got to support these majorities," said Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y.

Ironically, had Molinaro held his spot against Rep.-elect Josh Riley, D-N.Y., the GOP would bask a bigger cushion.

Trump is acutely alert of the occupation successful the House.

"I promised Mike that I wouldn't beryllium taking excessively galore much earlier we commencement counting the votes. He said, ‘Please, could you dilatory down a small bit?’ I conscionable similar the radical successful Congress. Mike, I'm sorry. But don't interest astir it, Mike. Just relax. Just relax," the president-elect said.

Republicans are already gathering imaginable absences and vacancies into their legislative calculus for the caller year.

U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson shakes hands with President-elect Trump onstage astatine a House Republicans Conference gathering astatine the Hyatt Regency connected Capitol Hill Nov. 13, 2024, successful Washington, D.C.  (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

"It’ll beryllium similar a logistics chess match. When we person to bash a definite vote, if we're truly astatine a one-seat bulk and someone's sick, there'll beryllium logistics progressive with that," said Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, vice president of the House Republican Conference. 

But that is easier said than done. That presumes that everyone contiguous and accounted for is connected committee with the contented of the day. Republicans struggled with that improvement connected a regular ground implicit the past 2 years.

"This is simply a profoundly divided Republican Party – unified present by their victory. But spot however agelong that lasts," said erstwhile House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md. "We cognize determination are heavy philosophical and procedural differences wrong the Republican Party that we saw repeatedly successful the past Congress."

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., told Republicans to not expect a lifeline from the number enactment successful the caller year.

"If you judge that that's an overwhelming mandate, then, of course, the American radical volition expect that you volition bash the basics successful presumption of governing," said Jeffries.

The state is connected yet different collision with the indebtedness ceiling. The contented should ripen sometime successful the archetypal 4th of adjacent year. Jeffries argued that if Republicans are successful complaint and person the enactment of voters, past they should "be capable to debar a catastrophic default connected our nation's debt."

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But Jeffries added a caveat astir past week’s election.

"If you judge that’s an overwhelming mandate," helium said.

That’s the situation facing House Republicans. The radical spoke. Now they expect action. But the equation successful the House is hard to negociate connected immoderate fixed day. And departures for the adjacent medication don’t massage the mathematics astatine all.