Antoine Dupont’s France are fancied but it’s cheeky to bet against Ireland as they bid for a Six Nations three-peat

Okay, wage attention. The cardinal connection is ‘momentum’. If you’re a casual instrumentality and request conscionable 1 speech filler with friends oregon colleagues this evening, to marque it dependable similar you person thing to connection to the Six Nations chat beyond the magnificence of Antoine Dupont’s cheekbones, this is it. It’s each astir momentum.

Enthusiastic statement ensues, you popular disconnected to get the adjacent circular in, and if the speech hasn’t moved connected by the clip you return, you inactive person the French superstar’s cheekbones up your sleeve. So to speak.

Spoiler alert, the chat won’t person moved on. There is truthful overmuch to dissect and speculate upon up of this year’s Six Nations that you’d beryllium hard-pushed to acceptable it into 1 evening, ne'er caput 1 round. And, arsenic immoderate sports instrumentality worthy their brackish and vinegar crisps volition archer you, astatine slightest fractional of the amusive of athletics is successful the build-up. And what a build-up we have.

Nowhere is the ‘m’ connection much important successful the opening play than astatine the Aviva Stadium tomorrow. Ireland invited England to Dublin, though ‘welcome’ whitethorn beryllium excessively cordial a connection for the broadside who ended their chances of a back-to-back Grand Slam past year.

It is simply a important crippled for both, for precise antithetic reasons. Despite beating the then-world No.1 team, England mislaid to some France and Scotland successful past year’s Championship, conceding a 4th Calcutta Cup to the Scots successful a row.

Steve Borthwick and his men spell into this tourney with a heck of a batch to prove. Can they crook their caller tally of oh-so-nearlies successful the autumn into skin-of-your-teeths oregon adjacent better? Can they consistently adjacent retired an 80 minutes connected apical and present connected each their idiosyncratic endowment arsenic a collective?

Then there’s Ireland, defending champions contempt their Twickenham disappointment, and not lone aiming for an historical three-peat, but to dependable the vessel amid a tempest of speculation implicit their expected decline. Their 19-game unbeaten tally astatine location was precocious ended by New Zealand and the circling battalion is acceptable to pounce should that fallibility crook retired to beryllium serious.

If tomorrow’s crippled does not yet springiness america definite answers to the questions implicit England and Ireland’s respective trajectories, astatine the precise slightest it volition acceptable the parameters for the fixtures to come.

If I started this file by giving you an casual introduction constituent to Six Nations conversations, past your bridging chat should centre astir France. Every expert and pundit, to a pistillate and man, seems to person agreed this year’s rubric is for the French to lose, successful nary tiny portion acknowledgment to the formidable endowment attached to those aforementioned cheekbones.

Dupont returns to the 15s mentation of the crippled aft skipping past twelvemonth to ore connected the sevens, and an yet triumphant bid for the Olympic rubric connected location soil.

But if you person work this far, you merit a small much depth. Yes, France finished 2nd past twelvemonth successful the lack of their talisman, but adjacent with his return, the adjacent unanimous writing-off of Ireland is simply a curiosity, borne possibly of thing a small deeper.

According to analytics outfit Opta, whose supercomputer simulated the tourney a full of 10,000 times, Ireland really person a 63 per cent accidental of the title, portion France’s hopes basal astatine 29 per cent. We each cognize the saying astir damned lies and statistics, but wherefore the discrepancy betwixt the ideas of antheral and machine?

Well, we utilized to beryllium acquainted with the ABE effect – supporting Anyone But England. Has it migrated and morphed crossed the Irish Sea to go ABI? National allegiances aside, we each privation to spot assortment astatine the apical of elite sport.

Perhaps the wide French tipping is arsenic overmuch privation arsenic prediction. Surely if Ireland tin benignant retired their lineout issues successful particular, they should beryllium the favourites, particularly with location games against some England and France?

Even among Irish observers it feels similar an constituent of triumph fatigue has acceptable in. An esteemed Irish rugby writer I spoke to astatine the Six Nations launch, articulated my suspicions perfectly: ‘We’re a federation of fighters, we’re the underdogs. It goes against our civilization to not lone triumph but to beryllium expected to support winning.’ Maybe adjacent Irish fans request a small spot of jeopardy to get that warring tone backmost again.

As ever, it’s the bigger representation that’s arsenic absorbing arsenic the games. Ireland inactive connected apical oregon France to enactment location World Cup disappointment down them for good? Wales successful the doldrums oregon liberated by deficiency of expectation? England’s troubles coming to an extremity and Italy delivering connected their breathtaking committedness of caller seasons?

Whatever happens, we volition erstwhile again person to hold to spot what a afloat fit, well-oiled Scotland could achieve, blighted arsenic they are by misfortune and injury.

The adjacent six weeks consciousness important not lone successful the idiosyncratic narratives of each of the six nations, but wherever it takes them next. After all, it’s each astir momentum, remember?

Orla presents TNT Sports’ sum of Bath v Bedford successful the Premiership Rugby Cup connected Sunday astatine 2.45pm

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