As Jordan’s King Abdullah meets Trump, can he resist US pressure on Gaza?

Jordan’s King Abdullah II is acceptable to conscionable with United States President Donald Trump successful Washington, DC, amid the latter’s repeated insistence that the monarch judge Palestinians helium would similar to expel from Gaza truthful the US tin instrumentality power of the enclave.

The thought came up successful Trump’s comments – made alongside a smiling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu past week – that Palestinians should beryllium “removed” from the devastated Gaza Strip. Trump has emphasised that, to his mind, the Palestinians would not return, making his ideas taste cleansing.

Jordan rejects the idea.

Trump’s comments were condemned not lone by Jordan but besides Egypt, which Trump besides said should “take” Palestinians from Gaza, arsenic good arsenic Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

However, Trump said US fiscal enactment for Jordan and Egypt would unit their hand.

“If they don’t agree, I would conceivably withhold aid,” Trump said connected Monday, the time earlier gathering King Abdullah.

A reddish line

US fiscal backing for Jordan is important – the state was the fourth-highest recipient of US overseas assistance successful 2023, with $1.72bn. But accepting the uprooting of millions of Palestinians from Gaza would beryllium a governmental non-starter for Amman, according to analysts.

“Accepting different question of Palestinians into the state remains a reddish line,” Dima Toukan, a non-resident student astatine the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. “The king volition not budge connected this matter.”

King Abdullah, a longtime US ally, has been nether unit internationally and domestically since the opening of Israel’s warfare connected Gaza successful October 2023.

Jordan’s presumption arsenic a cardinal determination state to the US and a commercialized spouse with Israel has angered its overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian population, which besides includes astatine slightest 2 cardinal Palestinian refugees and Jordanians of Palestinian origin.

Any acceptance of Trump’s ideas, which person been likened to the Nakba successful which 750,000 Palestinians were ethnically cleansed by Zionist gangs to state the authorities of Israel successful 1948, would beryllium a look for home unrest and situation the monarchy’s legitimacy.

Protests against Israel’s warfare connected Gaza, which has killed much than 61,700 Palestinians, person taken spot successful Amman for overmuch of the past 16 months.

While they person calmed since the ceasefire betwixt Israel and Hamas, Jordanians took to the streets again connected Friday to protestation against the thought of Trump displacing Palestinians from Gaza into Jordan.

“Jordanians were wide with their messages during protests connected Friday,” Toukan said.

Anger tin rapidly pb to instability: An attack successful September by a Jordanian killed 3 Israeli borderline guards.

“My consciousness is that the king is conveying a precise urgent connection that Trump’s disastrous ‘plan’ is efficaciously going to destruct Jordan,” Sean Yom, an subordinate prof of governmental subject astatine Temple University, said.

“The displacement/relocation thought broaches the existential fearfulness of each Jordanians – crossed the board, from monarchy to nine – that Israel volition annex each of Palestine, and that resource-poor, socially-restive Jordan volition beryllium near picking up the pieces.”

Aid troubles

But Jordan has to measurement up different considerations erstwhile it comes to Trump’s comments.

Even earlier Israel’s warfare connected Gaza, the monarchy was nether unit owed to economical struggles that led to disenchantment among immoderate of the country’s influential tribes.

Jordan is already getting a sensation of Trump’s imaginable to upend decades of fiscal assistance aft helium announced connected the time of his inauguration that astir of the US’s planetary assistance commitments would beryllium frozen for 90 days.

Some Jordanians accidental they mislaid enactment oregon had their businesses impacted by Trump’s decision. It is besides notable that portion Egypt and Israel were fixed exceptions connected the overseas assistance freeze, Jordan’s presumption arsenic a staunch determination state did not support it.

“Jordan is straight babelike upon US assistance and information assistance,” Yom said. “The kingdom is susceptible to geopolitical blackmail.”

Ever since Jordan and Israel signed the 1994 Wadi Araba bid agreement, the Hashemite Kingdom has been a cardinal state of the US with enactment for it often crossing administrations and enactment lines.

But Trump’s unit whitethorn unit Jordan and different determination allies to commencement hedging their bets, analysts said.

Jordan, Egypt and different Gulf states “are astir apt looking to Russia and China”, Geoffrey Hughes, writer of the publication Kinship, Islam and the Politics of Marriage successful Jordan: Affection and Mercy, told Al Jazeera.

“A batch volition hinge connected however overmuch that scares the Trump medication and however credible immoderate menace of defection oregon hedging seems successful airy of the signals coming retired of Moscow and Beijing.”

Troops arsenic a stick

To proceed operating arsenic usual, Jordan would person to find capable backing from overseas powers to capable a billion-dollar gap. Analysts said the imaginable of the afloat magnitude being covered was unlikely.

But Jordan whitethorn person 1 much means of leverage.

“The biggest happening to ticker is the stationing of US forces successful Jordan,” Hughes said.

There are astir 3,000 US troops successful Jordan, mostly focused connected countering ISIL (ISIS) successful caller years, part of a wider web of US troops ostensibly built up to antagonistic ISIL implicit the past decade, with different troops stationed successful Syria and Iraq.

And yet, with Trump successful power, adjacent that leverage whitethorn not beryllium arsenic important arsenic it erstwhile seemed.

The US president has divided from his predecessors, who placed value connected a US beingness successful the region, speaking astir pulling US troops from Syria and Iraq.

Trump reiterated the volition to propulsion US troops from Syria successful precocious January, leaving immoderate to wonderment if a US beingness successful Jordan would beryllium a priority.

It could besides change the Jordan-Israel relationship, giving Israel an excuse to intervene straight with perceived “security threats” wrong Jordanian territory.

“Maybe Trump doesn’t adjacent privation [US troops successful Jordan] … they besides complicate immoderate Israeli aggression that could beryllium forthcoming,” said Hughes.