Beyond abortion rights: Why did Kamala Harris lose women’s votes?

Donald Trump’s decision of Vice President Kamala Harris successful the 2024 United States statesmanlike predetermination has signalled women’s rights – specifically the close to an termination – was little of a cardinal contented than expected for voters.

This was the archetypal statesmanlike predetermination since the Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade tribunal ruling, which ended a woman’s close to terminate a pregnancy. Trump has repeatedly claimed recognition for that 2022 verdict, which was made imaginable by his appointments of 3 blimpish judges to the apical court.

The Harris run made overmuch of Trump’s stance connected reproductive rights successful a bid to woo pistillate voters, peculiarly successful the plaything states. However, aboriginal nationalist exit polls showed that Harris had won the enactment of 54 percent of women, little than President Joe Biden did successful 2020 erstwhile helium had the enactment of 57 percent.

So what happened to the pistillate vote?

Why was termination expected to beryllium important successful this election?

The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade successful June 2022 was a immense turning constituent for women’s reproductive rights successful the US and sparked a monolithic backlash from women’s rights and aesculapian groups.

Overturning Roe had been a cardinal run committedness that Trump successfully contested the 2016 predetermination on.

In airy of the uproar implicit the Supreme Court’s ruling, Democrats expected the contented to loom ample this election, and Harris shaped overmuch of her run astir it.

Governor Janet Mills speaks astatine a rally successful Monument Square successful Portland marking the 2nd day of the US Supreme Court determination overturning Roe v Wade [Gregory Rec/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images]

How did the candidates run connected the contented of abortion?

Harris’s run focused connected highlighting statements Trump has made astir abortion.

For example, 1 advert that the Harris run ran adjacent to the polls was titled Punishment, referencing a connection by Trump earlier the 2016 predetermination successful which helium suggested women who effort to get abortions should beryllium punished.

However, successful 2016, Trump moved backmost from this position, clarifying that immoderate punishment would beryllium for doctors performing the procedure, not women undergoing it.

On October 29 this year, Harris stated that Trump would “force states to show women’s pregnancies”. She urged listeners to “Google Project 2025 and work the plans for yourself”, referring to a blimpish argumentation blueprint assembled by immoderate of Trump’s supporters but which Trump has distanced himself from.

This assertion by Harris was deemed mendacious by PolitiFact, a fact-checking outlet.

Ultimately, portion it is existent that Trump and his Republican aides person been called retired for making sexist remarks astir women, Trump made up for it by strategically distancing himself from the conception of a federal termination ban successful the run-up to this election, stating helium believed it should beryllium for idiosyncratic states to determine connected laws astir abortion.

Instead, helium focused connected rallying enactment among the moving people by focusing connected economical argumentation arsenic the main thrust of his campaign.

Trump’s moving mate, JD Vance, successful 2022 said helium supported a nationwide termination ban. However, successful July this year, Vance said helium was aligned with Trump connected the thought that termination should beryllium an contented that each authorities deals with.

If not abortion, what were women acrophobic with this election?

According to a survey of pistillate voters conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation and published connected October 11, the apical contented that emerged for women voters wide was inflation, including rising household expenses. More than one-third (36 percent) of respondents cited it arsenic the astir important issue.

This was followed by threats to democracy, which 24 percent of respondents cited, and migration and borderline security, which 13 percent of women cited. The aforesaid fig – 13 percent – cited termination arsenic the astir important issue.

The nationalist exit polls were accordant with this.

According to a preliminary nationalist exit canvass conducted by information supplier Edison Research, 31 percent of voters said the system mattered astir successful shaping their determination to ballot whereas 14 percent cited abortion.

How did women ballot successful this election?

Women did ballot for Harris but by a smaller borderline than they did for Democrats successful erstwhile elections – for Biden successful 2020 and for Hillary Rodham Clinton successful 2016.

CNN’s exit polls recovered that Harris won pistillate voters’ enactment by 10 percent points implicit Trump. But successful 2020, Biden won their enactment by 15 percent points, and successful 2016, Clinton did by 13 percent points.

While Harris made flimsy inroads with achromatic pistillate voters, Trump inactive won them by 8 percent points. Historically, achromatic women person voted for the Republican candidate.

According to the CNN polls, Harris besides won 92 percent of the votes of Black women, compared with Trump’s 8 percent. This was up from Biden’s 90.5 percent ballot stock successful 2020.

However, the Democrats mislaid enactment among Latina women this time. Harris won 61 percent of their votes this predetermination – 22 percent points supra Trump. But this borderline was markedly little than the 39-point pb Biden had implicit Trump with Latina women successful 2020.

Campaign signs astatine an aboriginal voting tract astatine the West Oaks Branch Library successful Ocoee, Florida, United States connected October 27, 2024 [Paul Hennesy/Anadolu via Getty Images]

What did Harris bash incorrect and Trump bash right?

Harris focused excessively overmuch connected termination alternatively than much salient issues, specified arsenic economical policies, that would entreaty to moving people voters, including women, David Schultz, an writer and governmental subject prof astatine Minnesota’s Hamline University, told Al Jazeera.

Voters had much assurance successful Trump’s quality to grip the economy, and the Republican campaigner ostensibly was amended astatine persuading moving people and mediate people voters connected his economical policies. Harris connected the different hand, appealed much to college-educated, precocious mediate people voters.

White women with assemblage degrees tended to ballot for Harris this predetermination – 53.5 percent did truthful – portion 64 percent of achromatic women without degrees voted for Trump, according to a CNN poll.

“The Harris run did not needfully bash a bully occupation of explaining however her policies would assistance the mediate class, oregon astatine slightest that connection wasn’t truly resonating with a batch of voters,” Melissa Deckman, a governmental idiosyncratic and the CEO of Public Religion Research Institute, told the Reuters quality agency.

Schultz added that this caused Harris to suffer captious battleground states that had consistently voted for Democrats earlier 2016. “Harris mislaid Wisconsin due to the fact that she mislaid the moving people and did not triumph women, suburbs and young voters,” helium said.

An aboriginal nationalist exit canvass showed that 51 percent of voters trusted Trump with handling the system compared with the 47 percent who trusted Harris.

An investigation by the Washington, DC-based Brookings Institution deliberation vessel besides recovered Harris had inherited America’s disapproval of Biden, which has grown during his presidency due to the fact that of economical dissatisfaction. Americans were peculiarly displeased with Biden’s handling of inflation, according to polls compiled by the FiveThirtyEight website. Since Biden came to power, user prices person risen by more than 19 percent.

The Brookings investigation besides indicated Harris made immoderate incorrect tactical choices. For example, her determination to avoid media interviews erstwhile she archetypal appeared connected the Democratic summons led to voters losing assurance successful her quality to deliberation connected her feet, Brookings said.

Deckman added that Harris’s prime of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz arsenic her vice statesmanlike moving mate implicit Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was different of “several mistakes” made by the Democrats successful the run-up to this election. This is due to the fact that Walz did not assistance Harris sway immoderate plaything states. Minnesota has voted Democratic successful each azygous statesmanlike predetermination since 1976.

Is the close to termination successful information successful the US nether Trump?

Once Trump takes powerfulness successful January, a nationwide termination prohibition seems unlikely, but states whitethorn restrict abortion.

Before this year’s election, Trump said helium would veto immoderate national termination prohibition due to the fact that helium believes termination is an contented that should beryllium near to each state.

As of this week, termination is banned successful 13 states nether astir each circumstances. In an further 4 states, termination is banned past six weeks of pregnancy.

Some states spot limits astatine 12 weeks, 15 weeks oregon 18 weeks oregon person longer gestational limits. Nine states and the District of Columbia spot nary restrictions connected abortion.

On Tuesday, 10 states voted connected whether to embed the close to termination successful their constitutions. These measures were brought to the ballot by termination rights groups.

Seven states passed the termination rights amendments, paving the mode for termination restrictions to beryllium lifted successful Missouri, wherever termination was banned nether immoderate circumstances but aesculapian emergencies, and Arizona, wherever abortions were banned past 15 weeks. These restrictions volition beryllium lifted successful the coming weeks.

The measures besides passed successful Colorado, New York, Maryland, Montana and Nevada, wherever termination is ineligible but present this volition beryllium enshrined successful their authorities constitutions.

Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota failed to walk their ain amendments, and their bans remain. Florida bans abortions past six weeks of pregnancy, Nebraska bans them past 12 weeks and South Dakota bans them successful astir each circumstances.

However, The New York Times reported connected Wednesday that anti-abortion Republicans volition spot unit connected Trump to enact a national prohibition connected abortion.