Biden plans final Mideast peace push but will leaders ignore him?

Trump has promised to bring bid to the Middle East but has not said how. If his archetypal word is immoderate indication, however, helium is apt to prosecute a powerfully pro-Israel approach, going adjacent beyond the staunch enactment fixed by President Joe Biden to Washington’s apical determination ally.

Ahead of a second Trump presidency, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said connected Thursday: “We volition proceed to prosecute an extremity to the warfare successful Gaza, an extremity to the warfare successful Lebanon, the surge of humanitarian assistance, and that is our work to prosecute those policies close up until noon connected Jan. 20.”

But with Biden present a lame duck, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a adjacent Trump ally, and Arab leaders volition apt bash small to accommodate the Democratic president and whitethorn instrumentality their cues from his Republican successor, whose erratic first-term overseas argumentation kept the portion connected edge.

“They’ve got substantially little leverage,” said Brian Finucane, elder advisor to the International Crisis Group’s US program. “People whitethorn inactive reply their telephone calls, but everyone is looking guardant to a caller administration, 1 that volition person antithetic policies and priorities.”

HEDGING THEIR BETS

Since Trump’s triumph successful Tuesday’s predetermination against Vice President Kamala Harris, Arab and Israeli officials person already begun hedging their bets.

Egyptian mediators who person been moving with US and Qatari counterparts connected Gaza ceasefire proposals are waiting to spot however Trump’s plans instrumentality signifier for the Palestinian enclave, Egyptian information sources said.

As the satellite watched the US predetermination connected Tuesday, Netanyahu – who near small uncertainty of his penchant for Trump and hailed his triumph arsenic “historic” – sacked his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, depriving the Biden medication of 1 of its favored Israeli partners.

The Palestinian militant radical Hamas, which has been warring Israel for much than a twelvemonth successful Gaza pursuing the militants’ onslaught connected confederate Israel, and the Lebanese equipped radical Hezbollah, locked successful a parallel struggle with Israeli forces, some appeared to beryllium looking past Biden to the incoming Trump administration.

Reprisal strikes betwixt Israel and Iran person raised fears of a broader determination war.

Hamas urged Trump to “learn from Biden’s mistakes,” and Hezbollah said it did not clasp retired overmuch anticipation for a displacement successful US argumentation distant from enactment for Israel.

Palestinian Authority officials say, however, they expect to beryllium moving with Biden aides close up to erstwhile Trump takes office.

Washington sought to footwear commencement the Gaza ceasefire talks aft Israel killed Hamas main Yahya Sinwar successful mid-October, but the effort went nowhere. In Lebanon, US officials person said they person made advancement but a last woody has yet to beryllium reached.

When asked astir the presumption that the Biden administration’s leverage had eroded post-election, a White House National Security Council spokesperson said: “I’m not going to speculate connected hypotheticals.”

WAITING FOR TRUMP

Netanyahu and his allies celebrated the predetermination of Trump, a staunch but sometimes unpredictable state of Israel, hoping that the Republican president who successful his archetypal word delivered large wins for the Israeli person would enactment Israel unconditionally.

Trump has powerfully backed Netanyahu’s extremity of destroying Hamas but has called for Israel to decorativeness the occupation quickly.
In his triumph speech, Trump said: “I’m not going to commencement a war. I’m going to halt wars.” But helium did not elaborate.

Biden’s enactment for Israel has divided his Democratic Party and outgo Harris the votes of galore Arab Americans and liberals.

The Democratic president has firmly supported Israel portion pressuring Netanyahu to bash much to support civilians and let much humanitarian assistance into Gaza.

But Biden has been incapable to extremity the war, with immoderate critics saying helium should person done much to restrict billions of dollars of subject assistance the US sends each twelvemonth to Israel.

Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert astatine the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies successful Washington, predicted that up of Trump’s inauguration, Netanyahu would marque a constricted effort to conscionable Biden’s demands connected Gaza assistance but would besides beryllium mindful of what helium needs to bash to placate Trump.

“From Election Day to inauguration day, Israel’s posture toward the US volition beryllium dictated by 2 things: what Netanyahu needs, what Netanyahu fears,” she said. “Netanyahu besides fears the erratic wrath of the adjacent American president.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin successful an Oct. 13 missive demanded Israel instrumentality circumstantial measures to amended assistance for Gaza oregon look imaginable consequences successful US subject support.

Blumenfeld said that during this interim, Netanyahu would marque a minimal effort to comply with that demand, “just capable to debar captious limb restrictions.”

Some analysts judge Trump whitethorn springiness Netanyahu a freer manus to enactment against Iran and its proxies.

“Netanyahu knows that Trump volition springiness him carte blanche to transportation retired his plans, truthful helium is conscionable biding his time,” said Brett Bruen, a erstwhile overseas argumentation advisor successful the Obama administration.