Botswana election: Who is in the running and what’s at stake?

In the midst of a punishing drought and a monolithic driblet successful diamond revenue, up to 1 cardinal eligible voters successful Botswana are heading to the polls successful a tense wide predetermination connected Wednesday.

Africa’s longest-serving ideology is considered 1 of the continent’s astir unchangeable countries, having peacefully transitioned powerfulness successful each elections since independency from Britain successful the 1960s. However, determination are fears this clip that determination mightiness beryllium post-election violence.

“There are tensions successful the state owed to the shifting governmental landscape,” predetermination perceiver Tendai Mbanje of the African Centre for Governance Election Observation told Al Jazeera. “Unlike successful the past, determination is accrued governmental competition.”

The landlocked confederate African state runs an indirect predetermination system: Voters volition elite parliament members. The caput of the governing enactment astatine the extremity of the ballot number is past appointed arsenic president for the adjacent 5 years.

Blessed with precious stones and the world’s second-largest diamond reserves aft Russia, Botswana has abundant earthy wealth. It besides boasts the world’s largest elephant population.

Although somewhat larger successful size than France, Botswana’s colonisation is little than 4 percent of France’s. There are lone 2.5 cardinal radical dispersed sparsely crossed the state which has the Kalahari Desert covering overmuch of its territory.

Still, Botswana is influential successful the region. Gaborone, the capital, hosts the office of the determination economical bloc – the Southern African Development Commission (SADC). At this year’s Paris Olympics successful June, jock Letsile Tebogo besides became the 200-metre men’s champion, further stamping Botswana arsenic a unit connected the planetary stage.

The state is simply a secular state, though astir radical are Christian. English and Setswana, spoken by the bulk Tswana group, are the authoritative languages. A idiosyncratic from Botswana is simply a Motswana, portion the radical of Botswana are collectively called Batswana.

Here’s what to cognize astir the October 30 polls:

People enactment up to ballot successful Botswana’s 2019 wide predetermination successful Gaborone [File: Jerome Delay/AP]

How does voting work?

Voters volition elite 61 members of the National Assembly and 609 section assembly seats successful the 16 section authorities crossed the country.

Legislators are elected done a first-past-the-vote oregon preferential system.

In turn, the governmental enactment with the astir seats volition elite the president.

Botswana is simply a multi-party state, but the governing Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has dominated the polls since 1969. The enactment secured 38 of 57 seats successful the 2019 wide predetermination and is acceptable to expanse the polls again travel Wednesday.

Who is running?

President Mokgweetsi Masisi

Representing the BDP, 63-year-old Masisi is taking 1 more, final, plaything astatine the presidency. He is the favourite to triumph due to the fact that of his incumbency and the BDP’s 58 years of dominance. The enactment is progressively weakening from interior frictions but it inactive has a beardown enactment basal successful the agrarian colonisation and the Tswana-majority taste group.

Masisi was vice president to erstwhile President Ian Khama who, upon the expiration of his term, handpicked Masisi successful 2018. However, the 2 politicians fell retired erstwhile Masisi took office, starring to Khama exiting the enactment on with his loyalists. Khama accused Masisi of betrayal for undoing his policies, including lifting a prohibition connected trophy and elephant hunting successful the state arsenic good arsenic decriminalising homosexuality.

Masisi ran arsenic president successful the 2019 predetermination and won. His word has been shadowed by his tussle with Khama, which is fracturing the BDP internally arsenic factions emerge. A planetary downturn successful the terms of diamonds successful caller years has besides reflected severely connected the president, with galore blaming him for rising ostentation and unemployment astatine home.

Internationally, Masisi has ruffled feathers for his stance connected elephant hunting. In April, helium threatened to send 20,000 elephants to Germany aft the European state attempted to prohibition trophy imports. However, the president won praise astatine location past July aft re-negotiating a semipermanent statement with mining institution De Beers to summation by 100 percent the shares of the unsmooth diamonds Botswana gets from their associated partnership.

Although the state has ever enjoyed peaceful elections, struggles wrong the BDP and expanding choler against President Masisi’s economical policies are causing fearfulness among Batswana astir imaginable post-election tensions.

Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi [Tendai Marima/Al Jazeera]

Duma Boko

The 54-year-old lawyer leads a conjugation of absorption parties nether the banner of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).

The UDC conjugation importantly challenged the BDP successful 2019 to travel 2nd with 15 seats.

Boko remains the biggest menace to Masisi now, arsenic a usually anemic Botswana absorption becomes progressively popular, starring immoderate section analysts to speculate that the effect mightiness beryllium excessively adjacent to call, though galore disagree.

Boko’s UDC is promising much lucrative jobs to young radical and has tried to woo voters with the committedness of authorities stipends.

Dumelang Saleshando

Saleshando, 53, is the person of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), different of the main absorption parties.

The BCP has won betwixt 10-20 percent of the ballot successful erstwhile elections.

The enactment has promised to “save Botswana” and committed to offering an mean monthly surviving wage of 4,000 pula ($299) by 2029, up from the existent 1,500 pula ($112).

Mephato Reatile

Reatile is the person of the Botswana Patriotic Front, 1 of the newest parties with lone 4 members successful parliament. The enactment was formed by followers of ex-President Khama aft his exit from the BDP.

Khama returned from a three-year self-imposed exile to South Africa this September to backmost the party, successful the hopes of removing the BDP and his rival, Masisi, raising the levels of hostility astir the election.

The erstwhile person besides appeared successful tribunal connected charges of amerciable weapon possession and wealth laundering upon his return, sparking much controversy.

Analysts, however, accidental that the fears of imaginable unit being reported successful section media are exaggerated. “The elections volition beryllium a choky contention but determination are nary expectations of a convulsive election,” predetermination perceiver Mbanje said.

What are the cardinal issues?

Diamond shocks connected the economy

Botswana rapidly roseate from being a low-income to a middle-income state successful the 1970s, acknowledgment to diamond sales, which marque up 80 percent of exports. Its gross home merchandise (GDP) per capita is pegged astatine $7,250, 1 of the highest connected the continent. In comparison, The Gambia, with a akin population, has a per capita GDP of $800.

However, much nuanced economical indicators archer different broadside of the story. A deficiency of diversification from diamonds, which it exports successful the raw, unprocessed form, has caught the system connected the backmost ft amid a planetary autumn successful diamond prices successful caller years. The terms clang is caused by a much aggravated request for overmuch cheaper synthetic oregon lab-grown diamonds which are edging retired request for the existent worldly successful cardinal markets similar China and the United States.

Debswana, the institution jointly owned by Botswana and mining steadfast De Beers, saw income plunge by 47 percent successful the archetypal fractional of 2024. There are fears of wide retrenchment successful mining proviso chains, and ostentation is present hitting Batswana hard.

Botswana’s President Masisi holds a 2,492-carat diamond that was unearthed astatine 1 of its mines successful August [AP Photo]

Unemployment and inequality

Unemployment remains important astatine 27 percent contempt Botswana’s wealth.

The country, similar its Southern African counterparts, besides remains 1 of the much unequal societies, with immense gaps betwixt the affluent and poor.

Those inequalities day backmost to colonial-era ownership of cattle which made immoderate parts of nine overmuch richer. Successive governments person besides failed to divided the gross from diamonds much evenly among the population.

Drought and conservation

Climate-change-induced higher temperatures mean Botswana is progressively experiencing terrible droughts that impact nutrient accumulation and h2o supply, This, successful turn, threatens livelihoods and has driven much than 10 percent of the colonisation into chronic nutrient insecurity, according to the United Nations alleviation agency, OCHA.

Crop yields are declining, with cereal accumulation successful the 2022-2023 play reaching conscionable 23 percent of the nationalist request amid the erratic rainfall season. In July 2023, Botswana declared a authorities of exigency owed to drought.

That is besides pressuring the country’s abundant animals. President Masisi is vocal connected the country’s request to merchantability disconnected elephants for gross and let for their hunting, to trim their numbers and thus, feeding pressures, but this is simply a arguable stance that has earned him condemnation from planetary carnal conservation groups.

Democratic gains and constitution review

Many of Masisi’s detractors impeach him of stifling dissent and undoing democratically passed laws, specified arsenic the trophy hunting ban. However, analysts constituent retired that nether Masisi’s government, Botswana has maintained a unchangeable democracy.

“The accusations of dictatorship from detractors are a effect of vexation of the pending law reappraisal process that Masisi’s authorities is seen to person not delivered,” Mbanje said, referring to a three-year-long constitution amendment process that was approved this twelvemonth but has not taken afloat effect.

The caller regulations are acceptable to barroom retired presidents from holding different precocious positions, forestall dual-country citizens from predetermination to parliament, alteration the creation of the country’s judicial services bureau and tighten protections for the LGBTQ community.