Buzzkill? Why Trump tariffs could see U.S. booze barred on Canadian shelves

Canadians emotion American booze, spending hundreds of millions connected their favourite beverages each year. But a tariff warfare betwixt some countries could enactment Canadian tipplers successful atrocious spirits.

U.S. President Donald Trump could deed Canada with tariffs as aboriginal arsenic adjacent week, raising the risks that Ottawa would enforce retaliatory tariffs connected the United States amid increasing fears of a commercialized war.

“If the president does take to proceed with tariffs connected Canada, Canada volition respond and everything is connected the table,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a quality league Tuesday successful Montebello, Que.

Trudeau signalled that Canada’s counter-tariffs could screen the worth of Trump’s projected 25-per cent tariffs connected each Canadian goods.

“I enactment the rule of dollar-for-dollar matching tariffs. It’s thing that we are perfectly going to beryllium looking astatine if that is however they determination forward,” helium told reporters.

One of those imaginable targets, based connected erstwhile retaliatory tariffs? American booze.

In 2023, U.S. intoxicant exports to Canada amounted to US$262 cardinal (C$377 million) a year, with American whiskey accounting for US$76 cardinal (C$110 million) of that.

Jack Cunningham, adjunct prof astatine Trinity College astatine the University of Toronto, told Global News that Kentucky bourbon and Tennessee whiskey would beryllium “perfectly good targets” for retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa.

“Look, I similar Kentucky bourbon arsenic overmuch arsenic anybody else, but going without it is simply a reasonably humble inconvenience successful the expansive strategy of things, peculiarly erstwhile you look astatine it successful the discourse of the superior harm that a tariff warfare would inflict connected some economies,” Cunningham said.

Nicholas Ti, an economist astatine Toronto Metropolitan University, said tariffs are bound to crook Canadian consumers distant from U.S. booze.

The evidence, helium said, was successful Trump’s erstwhile tariff conflict with the European Union.

“Only six years ago, Trump started a commercialized warfare with the EU, and 1 of the policies that they adopted successful the EU was similar a 50 per cent tariff connected a clump of American products, peculiarly whiskey,” helium said.

“The worth of American whiskey exports to the EU fell by implicit 20 per cent.”

Sylvanus Afesorgbor, a prof astatine the University of Guelph’s Department of Food, Agriculture and Resource Economics, said shifts successful user behaviour would beryllium connected a conception called the elasticity of request – the alteration successful the request for a merchandise if its terms shifts.

“Whether the terms goes up oregon not, immoderate radical whitethorn inactive privation to devour the aforesaid merchandise due to the fact that they’ve developed a sensation for it. They whitethorn inactive privation to bargain adjacent with a higher price,” helium said.

He said the tariff menace is simply a reminder for Canada to look to different commercialized partners.

“We person to deliberation astir diversifying, due to the fact that it looks similar we are precise overmuch babelike connected the U.S.”

Ti said elasticity volition disagree based connected what benignant of portion is seeing a terms increase.

“The elasticity of this request is little for beer. So overall, if you summation brew taxes, it has a smaller effect connected brew depletion than if you increase, for example, spirits taxes.”

He said dense drinkers are apt to trim the magnitude of intoxicant they drink, portion occasional drinkers whitethorn tolerate higher outgo options.

He said a bigger origin successful determining user behaviour is allocating support abstraction — thing that’s already a salient menace successful Ontario.

“I’ve sent a absorption to the LCBO that if these tariffs travel to wide disconnected each spot of U.S. intoxicant disconnected the shelves. Let’s commencement promoting much Ontario-made wines, and the vodkas, the spirits. That’s what we request to do,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Monday.

Ford has encouraged different provinces to see the same.

Ti said the Ontario government’s monopoly connected intoxicant income successful Ontario “gives them tremendous quality to dictate user behaviour done things similar promotions, support placement, and of course, the determination of which brands to banal oregon not.”

Davin de Kergommeaux is the writer of Canadian Whisky: The Essential Portable Expert, a usher connected Canadian whisky. He said Canadian whisky lovers request not interest astir a deficiency of options if U.S. whisky is disconnected the shelves oregon much expensive.

“I don’t deliberation we should beryllium wringing our hands due to the fact that we person whisky up present that is each spot arsenic enjoyable successful each categories –  entry level, mean (quality) whisky and immoderate truly apical notch premium whiskies arsenic well,” helium said.

“I deliberation it’s conscionable a substance of going to the liquor store and asking the clerk  for assistance you if you can’t find it yourself.”

Kergommeaux said portion galore Canadians person a sensation for American whisky, Canadian whisky has historically been fashionable southbound of the border. During 2 large events successful U.S. past — the American Civil War and the Prohibition epoch — erstwhile American liquor stocks grew dry, Americans looked northbound for bully whisky.

“It has ne'er mislaid that popularity. It is inactive much fashionable than American whisky successful the U.S.,” helium said.

Joshua Richolt is the beverage manager astatine the NH Collection New York Madison Avenue Hotel and was raised successful Alberta.

“Canadian whisky is already fundamentally the aforesaid tone arsenic American whisky, arsenic some are corn-based. Bourbon is much often distilled astatine a little proof, however, and a batch much of the congeners, oils, and different flavouring agents are much heavy contiguous arsenic a result,” helium said.

Trending Now

However, experts accidental determination are alternatives for bourbon too.

Stephanie Lusk, a cook and societal media influencer, said, “An alternate benignant of whiskey that we person present successful Canada is called rye whisky and is made with Canadian wheat. This is truly large due to the fact that determination are truthful galore antithetic options and flavors and it’s besides person to home.”

Kergommeaux said the situation could bring accidental for Canadian distillers, portion giving consumers a accidental to “rediscover” Canadian whisky.

In 2024, Canada imported vino worthy C$51.4 cardinal from the U.S.

Most American vino comes from California, but Lusk says determination are home vino increasing regions that Canadians could look to if they privation to find much home options – peculiarly Niagara Falls, Ont., and British Columbia.

Richolt said Canadian trade brew is already replacing American brew successful galore markets.

“I unrecorded successful NYC and question location galore times each twelvemonth to Alberta. Beer is simply a section contented and champion served fresh. There is thing amended than discovering smaller trade breweries and their idiosyncratic specialties,” helium said.

“The astir fashionable cocktail whisky cocktail is the whisky sour. You tin marque that with immoderate Canadian whisky,” Kergommeaux said.

Lusk recommends utilizing rye whisky and giving it much of a Canadian flair.

“One of the bully things astir Canadian whiskies is that they really complement maple syrup truly well,” she said.

Whisky sours are typically made with whisky, lime juice, ovum whites and elemental syrup.

“You could regenerate the elemental syrup with immoderate maple syrup and bourbon with Canadian whisky. And present you person a Canadian rye sour,” she said.

Richolt said astir accepted recipes were not primitively based connected bourbon.

“Rye, which was much common, tin often beryllium substituted and is often done truthful successful the champion cocktail bars successful the world. Many of the champion rye producers successful the satellite are successful Canada, conscionable inquire Whistlepig, High West and galore different American brands that usage Canadian rye,” helium said.

Lusk noted determination are besides nonalcoholic options.

“There are nonalcoholic whiskies, wines, beers. Just having thing successful your manus astatine a enactment oregon astatine an event, often makes you consciousness similar you’re portion of it and you hide that you’re not adjacent drinking the intoxicant astatine all,” she said.

Lusk besides recommends looking up recipes for mocktails.

“They’ve inactive got a small spot of sugar, though,” she said.