Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked

House lawmakers this week weighed the prospects for a 2026 struggle betwixt the US, Japan, and China implicit Taiwan in a warfare simulation that warned of devastating costs for each involved. 

Exercises gamed retired by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed however the US and its allies could derail an amphibious Chinese battle - but not without taking dense losses themselves.

Fighting would assertion immoderate 10,000 casualties connected each sides, CSIS projected. The US would suffer 10-20 warships, 2 craft carriers, 200-400 warplanes and immoderate 3,000 troops successful conscionable the archetypal 3 weeks of fighting.

But China comes disconnected worse, failing to regain Taiwan and losing astir of its amphibious fleet, 52 large warships and 160 warplanes - a subject humiliation that would imperil the country's communist leaders.

The grim warfare simulations travel astatine a clip of governmental upheaval, with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te taking a tougher enactment connected China, which sees Taiwan arsenic a renegade state to beryllium unified with the mainland, by force if necessary.

China has ramped up its subject activities astir Taiwan successful the past 5 years, and President Xi Jinping has reportedly asked his generals to hole to retake the land of 24 cardinal radical arsenic soon arsenic 2027.

US President Joe Biden has vowed to support the territory. But the US is not nether immoderate pact obligations to bash so, and president-elect Donald Trump has signaled helium is little consenting to bankroll a warfare successful Asia in pursuit of his 'America First' policy.

Against this tense backdrop, the CSIS this week showcased 25 imaginable simulations of the struggle to the members of the House China Select Committee, which is led by Michigan Republican John Moolenaar.

'We walked done 1 simulation of what mightiness hap successful a worst-case script struggle with China and learned ways we tin enactment together, successful a bipartisan manner, to guarantee that America is prepared,' Moolenaar told Fox News.

'No substance wherever oregon when, the US and our allies indispensable person the subject means to decision our adversaries,' helium said, adding that America whitethorn person to beryllium the world's 'arsenal of ideology erstwhile much if called upon.'

The Chinese defence manufacture is operating connected a 'wartime footing,' and has ramped up its shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than America's, reducing the subject vantage the US has enjoyed for decades against the rising Asian power, the CSIS warns.

Analysts urged lawmakers to beryllium acceptable to enactment accelerated against a Chinese battle connected Taiwan - saying the 'Ukraine' strategy of gradually upping enactment to that state to repel Russian invaders would not enactment successful the South China Sea.

Taiwan would person to clasp the enactment against an assault, and the US would request to articulation the combat immediately, operating done its bases successful Japan, says Matthew Cancian, a Naval War College prof and pb writer of the project.

'If the US were not to articulation the combat for 2 weeks [after an invasion], it would beryllium excessively late,' says Cancian, a Marine veteran.

'China would already person excessively beardown a footing.'

Washington besides needs to nonstop much anti-ship missiles to Taiwan to support itself against an attack, the study says.

CSIS said Japan's relation successful immoderate specified struggle was paramount and called for rapidly bolstering US-Japan ties, as South Korea would apt not get progressive successful a warfare implicit Taiwan.

Cancian said it would beryllium 'very adjuvant if South Korea stood shoulder-to-shoulder with us.'

Analysts besides warned that North Korea whitethorn usage a Taiwan situation arsenic an accidental to invade the South, possibly utilizing the troops presently getting combat experience backing Russia's penetration of Ukraine.

Cancian warned that US forces could not support Taiwan from afar and would person to beryllium deployed connected the land to halt immoderate Chinese attack.

That's due to the fact that China's anti-tank and anti-air missiles would endanger US shipments of weapons to the island.

'US forces would person to beryllium straight involved,' said Cancian.

'There is nary mode to execute denying a takeover of Taiwan portion besides keeping US forces safe.'

Researchers warned that China is outproducing the US connected airplanes, ships, and missiles.

Beijing's onshore onslaught missiles and anti-ship missiles would beryllium peculiarly devastating to US and allied forces there.

The Pentagon indispensable ramp up accumulation of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, coastal defence cruise missiles and different munitions to support Taiwan, it is claimed.

Washington's existent stockpile of immoderate 440 anti-ship missiles would tally retired successful little than 7 days successful a warfare with China, researchers warned.

They urged Taiwan's admirals to halt ordering ample ships that China tin easy people and destroy, and absorption connected smaller vessels and stealthy submarines.

The US has agelong maintained a argumentation of 'strategic ambiguity' implicit whether it would measurement successful to defend Taiwan from a Chinese assault.

The argumentation makes Taipei unwilling to provoke a warfare by formally declaring independency from China, portion astatine the aforesaid clip deterring Beijing from invading the island, for fearfulness of ending up astatine warfare with a superpower.

In the warfare crippled scenario, Trump, who is acceptable to beryllium president successful 2026, comes to the defence of Taiwan.

The US is Taiwan's astir important planetary backer and arms supplier, contempt the deficiency of ceremonial diplomatic recognition.

It is not wide what Trump would bash nether specified a script - helium has successful the past suggested Taiwan should wage Washington for giving it antiaircraft aid.

The war-gaming took spot against the backdrop of mounting tensions betwixt Taiwan, China, and the US.

Taiwan's President Lai volition sojourn Taipei's 3 remaining diplomatic allies successful the Pacific connected a trip starting astatine the extremity of the month, his bureau said connected Friday.

But the authorities declined to springiness details connected immoderate transit stops by the president connected US soil.

Taiwanese presidents usually usage visits to allies to marque what are officially stop-overs successful the US, wherever they often conscionable with affable politicians and springiness speeches, which choler Beijing.

On 2 occasions successful the past 2 years, China staged subject drills astir Taiwan after presidential oregon vice-presidential stopovers successful the US.

Taiwan's authorities rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and says it has a close to prosecute with outer countries  and for its leaders to marque overseas trips.

In August of past year, China held a time of subject drills astir Taiwan aft then-vice president Lai returned from the US, where helium officially made lone stopovers but gave speeches connected his mode to and from Paraguay.

In April of past year, China besides held warfare games astir Taiwan in choler astatine a US travel by then-president Tsai Ing-wen, who met then-US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy successful Los Angeles.