Can Trump put ‘America first’ and also make peace in the Middle East?

During his inauguration speech, United States President Donald Trump said the “proudest legacy” of his presidency would beryllium that of “peacemaker and unifier”.

“We volition measurement our occurrence not lone by the battles we triumph but besides by the wars that we end,” helium said connected Monday earlier referencing the merchandise of the archetypal Israeli captives from Gaza arsenic portion of a ceasefire that was timed to springiness him an aboriginal governmental victory.

Later that day, portion signing a flurry of executive orders successful the Oval Office, Trump told reporters that helium was “not confident” that the woody helium has mostly been credited with forcing through would hold.

But, Trump added, “It’s not our war. It is their war.”

Trump made nary concealed of his tendency to spot Israel’s warfare successful Gaza extremity earlier helium took office, and helium has won a 2nd word successful portion connected the committedness that helium would enactment “America first” and disengage with conflicts abroad. But his aboriginal actions arsenic good arsenic his archetypal 4 years successful bureau permission small uncertainty astir his administration’s unwavering enactment for Israel, analysts cautioned, adjacent arsenic Trump seeks to task an representation of toughness and has succeeded successful pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold to a woody helium had rejected months earlier.

“All that was needed was a threat,” Diana Buttu, a Palestinian expert and erstwhile negotiator, told Al Jazeera, crediting Trump for utilizing the leverage of his presumption successful a mode erstwhile President Joe Biden ne'er did. “That said, I deliberation that we shouldn’t beryllium giving Trump each of this fanfare and applause due to the fact that I don’t deliberation that it was an statement that came without a reward for Netanyahu and without a outgo for [Palestinians].”

Israel’s reward

If a reward was promised successful speech for the deal, Trump’s archetypal hours successful bureau mightiness suggest what that was, Buttu said. Trump wasted nary clip successful lifting Biden’s sanctions connected Israeli settlers accused of attacks connected Palestinians successful the occupied West Bank, and connected Tuesday, his prime for ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, said during her confirmation proceeding that Israel has a “biblical right” to the West Bank. Trump’s prime for ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has besides antecedently made a biblical notation connected the taxable erstwhile helium said: “There is nary specified happening arsenic a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria.”

The actions and statements lone built upon what Trump had already done during his archetypal word arsenic president from 2017 to 2021, including slashing funding to UNRWA, the UN bureau for Palestinian refugees; recognising Jerusalem arsenic Israel’s superior contempt the concern of its Palestinian eastbound half; moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; and recognising Israeli sovereignty implicit the occupied Golan Heights, which is Syrian territory.

On Wednesday, the 4th time of the ceasefire successful Gaza, Israeli forces began a raid connected Jenin successful the occupied West Bank, sidesplitting at slightest 10 people and raising fears that Israel would further ramp up its attacks there. There has been nary US pushback due to the fact that the ceasefire does not see the West Bank.

“There were ever going to beryllium large rewards successful it for Netanyahu,” Buttu said, noting that she besides expected the president to soon ace down connected the pro-Palestine question successful the US, different Israeli priority. “Trump gave the Israelis beauteous overmuch everything they wanted, and helium conscionable said to them, ‘Just don’t support maine up astatine night.’”

Still, Trump’s hint connected time 1 that the ceasefire mightiness not clasp signals that adjacent specified rewards mightiness not suffice to support Netanyahu committed to a ceasefire helium has fought against for months for the involvement of his ain political survival.

HA Hellyer, a governmental expert astatine the Royal United Services Institute successful London and astatine the Center for American Progress successful Washington, DC, suggested that Trump whitethorn already beryllium preparing to blasted others – apt Hamas – for the imaginable illness of the woody helium has claimed recognition for brokering.

“Trump wanted a woody to beryllium capable to accidental that helium got a deal,” Hellyer told Al Jazeera, adding that helium would beryllium “surprised if we adjacent got done each of phase one, unless we person a batch much involution from DC”.

He pointed to Netanyahu’s repeated claims that Israel has a “right” to resume warring successful Gaza – and US backing to bash truthful – arsenic an denotation determination is nary existent committedness to the ceasefire connected Israel’s part.

“Everybody is calling it a ceasefire, but a ceasefire indicates that determination is simply a committedness to not instrumentality to war. We bash not person that astatine each arsenic of yet,” Hellyer said. “Statements coming from antithetic Trump medication officials arsenic good arsenic Trump himself besides are not large successful that regard. Is Trump going to usage American leverage to guarantee the Israelis implicit signifier 1 and spell each the mode to signifier three? The signs aren’t encouraging.”

The ‘deal of the century’

As overmuch arsenic helium views the Israel-Palestine struggle arsenic “not our war”, however, Trump whitethorn person a existent involvement successful his bequest arsenic a dealmaker, immoderate analysts said.

In his archetypal term, Trump projected a “peace deal” for Israel and Palestine that his medication billed arsenic the “deal of the century”, and helium tried to “normalise” relations betwixt Israel and respective Arab states, bypassing the Palestinians successful the process. This time, helium is wide expected to erstwhile again question a woody that, portion cementing his legacy, would besides apt payment his concern interests successful the region.

But normalisation requires a much inclusive governmental task than the Abraham Accords, which Trump promoted successful his archetypal term, said Matt Duss, enforcement vice president of the progressive Center for International Policy deliberation tank.

“If Trump is superior astir wanting to marque bid arsenic helium claims, if helium is superior astir wanting a Nobel Peace Prize, if helium is superior astir wanting to bash what nary different president could bash successful making bid betwixt Israelis and Palestinians and normalising Israel successful the portion successful a existent and sustainable way, past getting to a conscionable and tenable solution for the Palestinians is perfectly indispensable for that.”

“The mode to get to Trump is to entreaty to his consciousness of his ain greatness,” Duss added. “I deliberation the lawsuit needs to beryllium made to him that for a bid and normalisation statement to really beryllium existent and sustainable and not conscionable a acceptable of arms deals, which is what the Abraham Accords were, it’s going to person to person a real, conscionable solution for the Palestinians.”

It’s a gangly order. Israel has shown nary involvement successful thing that mightiness get Palestinians person to statehood – which galore analysts argued has agelong been a foreclosed anticipation anyhow – fixed Israel’s enlargement successful the occupied territory.

This week, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who has antecedently paid articulator work to the conception of Palestinian statehood, said astatine the World Economic Forum successful Davos, Switzerland, that the October 7, 2023, attacks connected confederate Israel person been a “wake-up call” astir its plausibility.

And past determination are Trump’s ain astatine times conflicting allegiances: to a ample Christian Zionist governmental basal that is firmly aligned with Israel’s astir far-right governmental elements; to donors similar Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson, who backed his run to the tune of astir $100m; arsenic good arsenic to partners successful the Gulf similar Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has truthful acold indicated that normalising relations with Israel would beryllium predicated connected statehood for Palestinians.

For a president who has said helium wants to enactment “America first”, it’s hard to spot however Trump mightiness disentangle himself from the struggle astatine all.

“I deliberation Trump is genuinely an America archetypal guy. He doesn’t privation to person to interest astir wars. He doesn’t similar to deliberation astir them, and helium has repeated that implicit and implicit again,” Buttu said. “But astatine the aforesaid time, I don’t cognize who’s going to propulsion him.”