Can Trump's return to White House be an opportunity for enhancing US-Turkey ties?

washington — 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the archetypal overseas leaders to congratulate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump connected his aboriginal November predetermination victory.

President Joe Biden has not hosted Erdogan astatine the White House though the 2 person met connected sidelines of planetary summits and spoken by phone.

Speaking to journalists accompanying his instrumentality from visits to Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, Erdogan expressed his anticipation for improved U.S. ties, adding, however, that in-person meetings would beryllium needed to execute that end, and that Ankara needs to hold to spot what benignant of a Cabinet Trump forms.

The 2 leaders had a adjacent idiosyncratic narration during Trump’s archetypal word successful office. However, bilateral relations person besides been marked by pugnacious times during that administration. With Trump’s January instrumentality to the White House, analysts told VOA that though determination whitethorn beryllium opportunities for much practice successful immoderate areas, they don’t expect large changes.

James Jeffrey, who served arsenic the U.S. ambassador to Turkey from 2008 to 2010, sees Ukraine arsenic 1 country with imaginable for cooperation.

Referring to Trump’s committedness to extremity the warfare successful Ukraine, Jeffrey says Turkey could play a relation successful negotiating a cease-fire, making some sides “well-aligned for a productive relationship.”

Alan Makovsky, a elder chap for nationalist information and planetary argumentation astatine the Center for American Progress, besides believes Trump’s precedence to extremity the warfare successful Ukraine creates a important accidental for Erdogan.

A NATO ally, Turkey has adopted a cautious balancing enactment amid the warfare successful Ukraine, supplying equipped drones to Ukraine portion maintaining ties with Russia successful vigor and tourism.

Erdogan, who has maintained bully relations with some Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has agelong said neither broadside is gaining from the warfare and offered to big and mediate negotiations.

Disagreement implicit Syria

Disagreements betwixt Turkey and the United States during Trump’s archetypal word included Ankara’s vexation with U.S. enactment for Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by Kurdish militia — People’s Protection Units, known arsenic YPG successful bluish Syria.

After a telephone telephone with Erdogan connected October 6, 2019, Trump unexpectedly announced that the U.S. would retreat from Syria. Many U.S. subject officials, each of whom were caught disconnected defender by the announcement, did not enactment the idea.

Tension betwixt the allies worsened aft Trump connected October 9 sent a missive to Erdogan, informing him against a subject incursion into Syria.

Following Trump’s withdrawal announcement, Turkey launched a subject cognition successful bluish Syria targeting the YPG connected October 9.

A cease-fire statement was reached during then-Vice President Mike Pence’s sojourn to Ankara connected October 17.

Now, immoderate successful Ankara expect the U.S. whitethorn reconsider its beingness successful bluish Syria during Trump’s 2nd term.

Jeffrey, a U.S. envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2020, suggests Trump’s medication whitethorn reassess this issue.

“Each clip radical were capable to person [Trump connected Syria, it] was that the troops were serving a acceptable of important purposes. This is 1 of the astir low-cost, high-return subject deployments. We are keeping the Islamic State nether control. Secondly, we are holding captious terrain, blocking Iranian, Assad and Russian ambitions,” helium told VOA.

Washington has agelong said its SDF concern is indispensable for the enduring decision of ISIS and countering Iran.

Ankara considers YPG a Syrian offshoot of PKK, which U.S. officials person besides designated arsenic a violent organization.

Trump nominated Marco Rubio, a Republican legislator from Florida, for caput of state. Rubio was 1 of the strongest opponents of a U.S.-pullout from Syria astatine the time.

He labeled the determination arsenic “a catastrophic mistake that volition person dire consequences acold beyond Syria,” urging Trump to reconsider it.

“We’ll person to spot however that works retired and however Marco Rubio’s views whitethorn person changed to accord much with Trump's oregon vice versa,” Makovksy said. “But anyone who thought that Trump's predetermination meant that the U.S. would soon beryllium withdrawing from Syria would surely person to rethink that presumption successful airy of the Rubio appointment. I deliberation that makes it improbable that we volition retreat from Syria.”

Trump’s nominees for Cabinet positions volition necessitate Senate support earlier they presume office.

F-35 program

One complicating origin successful U.S.-Turkey relations during Trump’s archetypal word was Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 rocket defence strategy from Russia, which prompted Washington to region Ankara from an F-35 associated onslaught combatant program.

“The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian quality postulation level that volition beryllium utilized to larn astir its precocious capabilities,” said a White House connection erstwhile the strategy was delivered successful July 2019, explaining the U.S. determination to region Turkey from the project.

The Trump medication successful December 2020 sanctioned Turkey nether the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Turkey, which has since requested removal of CAATSA sanctions, has returned to talks with U.S. officials astir a imaginable instrumentality to the F-35 program.

Analysts accidental that portion determination is simply a likelihood that CAATSA sanctions mightiness beryllium lifted during Trump’s 2nd term, immoderate solution to the S-400 contented that is not imperishable would not beryllium technically acceptable to the U.S. military.

Describing the F-35s arsenic the U.S. military’s largest task since World War II, Jeffrey said, “A imperishable solution is that they [the S-400s] spell away, they're sold to idiosyncratic else. I would similar to person a solution, but technically, I don't deliberation determination is one.’’

Makovsky called Turkey’s instrumentality to the F-35 programme improbable successful the adjacent term.

“If they wholly get escaped of the S-400s, truly springiness up possession arsenic the instrumentality requires, determination could beryllium a tenable accidental for F-35,” helium told VOA. “But it volition beryllium up to the alleged Four Corners - the president and elder members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.”

This communicative originated successful VOA’s Turkish Service.