Canada on track to be world’s 3rd-largest exporter of wheat in ’24-25 crop year

Canada is connected way to beryllium the world’s third-largest wheat exporter for the 2nd twelvemonth successful a enactment arsenic harvest accumulation successful the prairie provinces continues to increase.

International information from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows Canada overtaking Australia for the third-place spot successful the 2023-2024 harvest year, and predicts a akin ranking for 2024-25.

Canada is present down lone Russia and the European Union erstwhile it comes to volumes of wheat exports.

According to a 2024-25 outlook released past week by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, accumulation of each main tract crops successful the state is estimated to summation 1.8 per cent year-over-year, and 2.4 per cent supra the erstwhile five-year average.

Those figures bespeak this fall’s harvest, which is present mostly complete, and amusement the interaction of improved yields successful Western Canada wherever drought conditions were not arsenic terrible arsenic they had been the twelvemonth before.

But Canada besides ranked 3rd for wheat accumulation past twelvemonth successful spite of the drought, due to the fact that Australian farmers suffered done their ain weather-related challenges impacting harvest volumes. Canada shipped adjacent to 21.8 megatonnes of wheat to 65 countries successful 2023-24, with the apical 5 destinations being China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh and the U.S., according to AAFC.

Justin Shepherd, an economist with Farm Credit Canada, said portion the planetary rankings tin fluctuate from twelvemonth to twelvemonth owed to upwind conditions successful circumstantial geographic areas, Canada arsenic a full has been expanding its wheat export volumes implicit clip owed to advances successful cultivation probe and harvest genetics.

“We did spot a overmuch smaller wheat harvest to export successful 2021 owed to a reasonably important drought connected the prairies that year. But overall, arsenic agelong arsenic Canada is capable to turn an mean oregon above-average crop, we person seen exports turn implicit time,” Shepherd said.

Global request for wheat has besides been growing. The USDA has projected planetary wheat depletion successful 2024/25 volition summation by 0.6 per cent, with accrued request from North America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

Durum wheat, a assortment of wheat that is utilized to marque pasta and is grown successful Canada’s confederate prairie provinces, is seeing beardown request from Europe and North Africa. The Canadian Grain Commission has said durum exports from Canada done the country’s licensed elevator strategy are moving astir 25 per cent up of past year’s figures truthful acold this fall.

Wheat is simply a “thirstier” harvest than different staples specified arsenic maize, atom and soy, making it much susceptible to h2o shortages. The Washington-based World Resources Institute estimates that by 2040, astir three-quarters of planetary wheat accumulation volition beryllium nether menace owing to drought and clime change-induced h2o proviso stress.

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But Stewart Oke, a cardinal Alberta husbandman and a manager with the shaper enactment Alberta Grains, said Canada continues to put successful harvest probe and development, which has allowed the country’s farmers to proceed to summation their yields implicit time.

“In Canada we’ve worked truly hard connected our wheat genetics to withstand immoderate of the drought accent that possibly erstwhile varieties of wheat didn’t have,” Oke said.

“It does look arsenic if successful Canada we’ve been capable to proceed to beryllium expanding our wheat yields and accumulation successful spite of immoderate important upwind challenges successful caller years.”

He added Canadian wheat exporters are besides benefiting from the little Canadian dollar, which makes the country’s cultivation commodities much charismatic to planetary customers.

“Not lone are they getting the champion wheat successful the world, but they’re capable to bargain it astatine a spot of an speech deficit, which conscionable makes it much affordable for those buyers,” Oke said.

Farming arsenic an manufacture remains governed by Mother Nature, and Oke said nary magnitude of advancements successful harvest genetics oregon exertion tin prevention a harvest if nary rainfall comes. But helium said Canadian farmers are keen to proceed rising up the planetary rankings erstwhile it comes to wheat export volumes.

“It’s surely a feather successful Canada’s headdress — peculiarly Western Canada — to determination into that 3rd spot,” Oke said.

“Both from a shaper level, but besides arsenic an export market, we privation to clasp that 3rd position.”