Canada prepares for U.S. election. What a Trump or Harris win could mean

Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday arsenic a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its highest successful a profoundly divided United States, wherever voters successful lone a fistful of battleground states volition take the country’s way forward.

Vice-President Kamala Harris and erstwhile president Donald Trump person presented starkly antithetic visions for America’s future, but polling shows the 2 stay successful a dormant heat.

“Any predetermination successful the U.S. is important and impactful for us,” said Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States. “They are cardinal to our economical prosperity. They are a captious information partner.”

Hillman has been travelling crossed America gathering with cardinal members of the Republican and Democrat teams to hole for immoderate outcome. On predetermination night, aft her embassy duties are finished, she’ll beryllium watching the results with her hubby and friends — and said she’s leaning toward ordering pizza.

While the gathering with loved ones whitethorn bring solace amid the anxious anticipation, Hillman knows much than anyone the immense stakes astatine play for Canada.

“Whoever is sitting successful the Oval Office and populating Congress is making decisions that whitethorn impact Canada, either decisions that supply america with opportunities oregon decisions that airs challenges for us,” Hillman said. “The occupation is to beryllium acceptable for both.”

A shared past and 8,891-kilometre borderline volition not shield Canada from the election’s outcome. Both candidates person projected protectionist policies, but experts pass if the Republican person prevails the narration betwixt the neighbours could beryllium overmuch much difficult.

“Trump and immoderate of the cardinal radical astir him, including (former commercialized representative) Robert Lighthizer, truly privation to instrumentality it to Canada,” said Fen Hampson, a prof of planetary affairs astatine Carleton University successful Ottawa.

Trump’s archetypal medication demonstrated however susceptible Canada is to America’s whims erstwhile the erstwhile president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Negotiating its successor, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, was a cardinal trial for Ottawa aft Trump’s victory. Whoever takes implicit the White House this clip volition beryllium successful complaint during the agreement’s reappraisal successful 2026.

A origin for interest successful Canada and astir the satellite is Trump’s projected 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce study suggests those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting successful astir $30 cardinal per twelvemonth successful economical costs.

American economists warned Trump’s program could origin inflation, and perchance a recession, which would astir surely person ripple effects successful Canada. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports spell to the U.S and commercialized comprises 60 per cent of Canada’s gross home product.

“When the American system is growing, it’s mostly bully for us,” Hampson said. “If they instrumentality a heavy dive nether Trump … that volition person a knock-on effect connected us, connected apical of tariffs.”

The predetermination result could besides redefine America’s relation successful the world. Trump is captious of giving assistance to Ukraine successful its warfare against Russia, has attacked the United Nations and repeatedly claimed helium would not support NATO members that don’t conscionable defence spending targets — thing Canada is not doing, and won’t for years.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to conscionable the people of spending the equivalent of 2 per cent of GDP connected defence by 2032.

Trending Now

Trump’s archetypal tenure besides saw the Republican person retreat from the Paris Agreement, an planetary pact to chopped greenhouse gases.

Hampson said the Republicans’ propulsion against planetary institutions and treaties volition person “a profound impact” connected Canada, but besides cardinal allies and the satellite bid itself.

If Harris wins, it’s wide expected that determination volition beryllium much mean relations based connected established patterns and rules, but it does not needfully mean creaseless sailing for Canada.

It’s expected the vice-president would travel the way laid by President Joe Biden connected overseas argumentation and commercialized with Canada.

Biden signed an enforcement bid to revoke the licence for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would person transferred lipid from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration’s Buy America procurement rules besides caused interest successful Canada.

Laura Dawson, an adept connected Canada-U.S. relations and the enforcement manager of the Future Borders Coalition, said she expects a Harris medication would proceed nationalist and protectionist policies.

Harris has spoken connected the run way astir the information that she voted against the trilateral commercialized statement and said she volition instrumentality manufacturing jobs to the U.S.

It’s a large slogan and bumper sticker, Dawson said, “but it’s unspeakable if you are Canada.”

Dawson warned Trudeau’s squad during a furniture retreat successful August that nary substance who is the adjacent president, Canada volition person to enactment harder to support existing benefits of integrated commercialized and travel.

Meanwhile, galore Americans are caught betwixt anxiousness and excitement. Sixteen-year-old Gavin Kupcho attended his archetypal Trump rally successful Wisconsin past week.

“I’ve ne'er felt much enthused successful my life,” helium said. “I request little state prices since I conscionable got my licence.”

The concern feels much dire for Antonio White, who travelled from Miami to Milwaukee to sound connected doors for Harris successful the important battleground state. The 63-year-old said America is astatine a captious constituent “where radical are nary longer recognizing fascism erstwhile they spot it.”

“This is an predetermination we indispensable triumph for the sanctity of everybody, for the state itself,” helium said.

“Democracy is connected the ballot this time.”