China expects bumpy relations with the US under Trump

2 hours ago 2

Taipei, Taiwan — 

Following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping victory, Chinese netizens said they expect the U.S. to summation commercialized tensions with China portion analysts accidental Washington’s efforts to antagonistic China’s enlargement mightiness weaken nether a 2nd Trump administration.

Throughout his statesmanlike campaign, Trump has vowed to enforce tariffs, betwixt 60% to 200%, connected Chinese products connected respective occasions. During an interrogation with Fox News connected February 4, Trump said helium would enforce much than 60% tariffs connected Chinese imports but emphasized helium wasn’t going to commencement a commercialized warfare with China.

In an interrogation with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said helium would taxation China astatine 150% to 200% if Beijing decides to “go into Taiwan."

Some Chinese net users expect Trump to travel done connected the run committedness to enforce immense tariffs connected Chinese products but person mixed views astir however the tariffs volition impact the Chinese system and their livelihoods.

Amid China’s ongoing economical downturn, immoderate Chinese societal media users interest that Trump’s instrumentality to the White House could exacerbate the economical unit connected galore Chinese citizens.

“It’s hard to look astatine Trump’s triumph with axenic joy, due to the fact that helium is going to motorboat a commercialized warfare with China erstwhile helium comes into power, and our system volition endure further,” a Chinese netizen successful the capital, Beijing, wrote connected the fashionable microblogging tract Weibo, which is akin to X.

“How volition the lives of mean citizens change? I’m feeling a consciousness of unease astir the unpredictability of the future,” the idiosyncratic added.

Others accidental the 60% tariff connected Chinese imports to the United States that Trump projected during the run volition propulsion Chinese companies to redirect exports from the U.S. to different markets, including Southeast Asia, South America and Europe.

"Trump’s attack of being [an] force with the full satellite whitethorn marque immoderate left-wing regimes successful Europe disappointed, and this improvement whitethorn pb to a de-escalation of commercialized tensions betwixt China and Europe,” Niu Chun-bao, president of Shanghai Wanji Asset Management Co., posted connected Weibo.

Some Chinese netizens foretell the immense unit that Trump is apt to enforce connected Beijing volition heighten China’s home unity, and his transactional attack to resolving tensions whitethorn connection much country for dialog and bargaining.

“As agelong arsenic determination are nary large interior problems, nary outer unit tin overwhelm China. So, I deliberation the wide concern whitethorn inactive beryllium positive,” different netizen successful the eastbound Chinese state of Shandong wrote connected Weibo.

'Significant hit’

While Chinese netizens clasp mixed views astir the imaginable tariffs that Trump has vowed to enforce connected Chinese imports, analysts accidental this determination would beryllium “a important hit” to the Chinese economy, which has been troubled by an ongoing spot crisis, precocious younker unemployment and anemic home demand.

If Trump decides to enforce 60% tariffs connected each Chinese products imported to the U.S., “This would beryllium a instrumentality to a big-picture commercialized warfare alternatively than a constrictive tech war. And it would person a overmuch deeper interaction connected China’s export-driven maturation imaginable due to the fact that helium is hitting the entirety of China’s exports to the U.S.,” Jacob Gunter, an adept connected China’s governmental system astatine the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told VOA by phone.

In Gunter’s view, Trump whitethorn usage the tariffs to unit China to marque much concessions connected trade. After imposing up to 25% tariffs connected $200 cardinal of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. successful 2019, the Trump medication and China reached a commercialized deal that saw Beijing committedness to summation purchases of American goods to astatine slightest $200 billion.

“We could spot a instrumentality to the deal-making Donald Trump, wherever helium wants to onslaught a woody and beryllium viewed arsenic this large negotiator, due to the fact that that’s who helium imagines himself to be,” Gunter said, adding that it remains to beryllium seen however Trump mightiness presumption the tariffs during his 2nd term.

Other experts accidental 1 happening to look retired for is what concessions Trump mightiness marque during a imaginable dialog with China.

“One large question is whether Trump volition soften the presumption the Biden medication has maintained connected Taiwan successful speech for much exports and much U.S. concern into China,” Alicia Garcia-Herrero, main economist for Asia Pacific astatine French concern slope Natixis, told VOA by phone.

The Trump run has not yet responded to a VOA petition for remark regarding his administration’s commercialized plans with China erstwhile helium takes bureau successful January.

In effect to imaginable tariffs that the incoming Trump medication could impose, analysts accidental China could enforce counter-tariffs connected U.S. cultivation products from states controlled by the Republican Party.

“Economic and governmental tensions betwixt the 2 countries volition inevitably rise, portion the planetary system and planetary proviso chains volition beryllium thrown into chaos,” Zhiqun Zhu, an adept connected Chinese overseas argumentation astatine Bucknell University, told VOA successful a written response.

Weakened coordination with allies

While commercialized and economical tensions betwixt China and the U.S. are expected to emergence during Trump’s 2nd term, Zhu said Trump’s instrumentality to powerfulness whitethorn besides beryllium bully quality for Beijing, arsenic Washington’s efforts to antagonistic China’s enlargement of its power successful the Indo-Pacific portion whitethorn beryllium weakened owed to Trump’s isolationist attack successful planetary affairs.

“Trump is much apt to propulsion up with his docket without consulting allies and partners oregon seeking their support, and this mightiness beryllium bully quality for China,” Zhu told VOA.

“China tin instrumentality a ‘divide-and-conquer’ strategy to dilute the effectiveness of Trump’s overseas policy, particularly the Indo-Pacific strategy, and we whitethorn spot improvements successful China’s relations with its neighbors, peculiarly Japan, South Korea and India, arsenic good arsenic U.S. allies successful different parts of the world,” Zhu added.

In his view, bilateral relations betwixt China and the U.S. volition beryllium dominated by contention nether the 2nd Trump administration, but determination is besides country for diplomacy and cooperation.

“Competition itself is not needfully harmful, due to the fact that if the 2 countries tin negociate the contention successful a steadfast way, some sides tin benefit,” Zhu said.

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