Coal India Q3FY25 Review: Muted demand and weak e-auction prices may drag revenue, PAT YoY

Coal India Limited (CIL) is projected to station subdued Q3FY25 results, arsenic muted request and little e-auction realisations measurement connected its performance. According to Zee Business estimates, the company’s consolidated gross is expected to turn marginally by 0.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs 36,263 crore, compared to Rs 36,154 crore successful Q3FY24. However, nett net is estimated to diminution by eleven per cent to Rs 8,005 crore from Rs 9,069 crore successful the corresponding 4th past year.

Margins declaration owed to weaker realisations
CIL’s EBITDA is apt to autumn 5.5 per cent YoY to Rs 10,749 crore, with EBITDA margins expected astatine 29.6 per cent compared to 31.5 per cent a twelvemonth ago. The company’s nett net borderline is besides anticipated to declaration arsenic e-auction realisations are estimated to driblet by nineteen per cent YoY to Rs 2,700 per tonne.

E-auction volumes emergence contempt terms drop
A notable affirmative is the projected twenty-one per cent YoY summation successful e-auction volumes, which could offset immoderate of the impacts of little realisations. Coal off-take volumes are expected to turn by 2 per cent YoY, highlighting operational ratio contempt outer challenges.

Management guidance to clasp cardinal insights
Amid the challenging operating environment, analysts volition keenly absorption connected management's guidance regarding aboriginal e-auction pricing trends and strategies to antagonistic muted demand. A peculiar accent volition besides beryllium connected the outgo of accumulation and plans to optimise worker expenses, which are important contributors to the company’s wide expenditure.

Brokerages stay cautious
While gross is expected to stay mostly stable, brokerages specified arsenic Yes Securities and Nuvama Institutional Equities person pointed retired that little blended realisations and anemic e-auction premiums volition apt dent profitability. Nuvama predicts a sixteen per cent YoY diminution successful adjusted PAT to Rs 7,660 crore, portion Yes Securities projects marginal gross maturation but a flimsy diminution successful EBITDA to Rs 10,795 crore.

Outlook remains cautious
Coal India’s Q3FY25 results, scheduled for January 27, volition uncover the afloat grade of its show amid prevailing headwinds. While operational volumes are rising, falling e-auction prices and muted powerfulness request proceed to airs challenges, warranting a cautious outlook for the adjacent term.