Colombia’s president faces trouble – but blames opposition for ‘coup’

A coup is underway successful Bogota, Colombia. Or truthful the Colombian president Gustavo Petro claims.

On October 8, Petro took to societal media to denounce what helium alleges is an ongoing effort to overthrow his government. “The coup has begun,” helium wrote connected his X profile.

Petro’s accusation came aft Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) announced it was acceptable to motorboat an probe into the financing of his 2022 statesmanlike run implicit alleged breaches of spending limits.

Experts accidental the beardown rhetoric is the latest grounds that Petro is struggling to support power midway done his four-year term, arsenic a drawstring of scandals threatens to overshadow Colombia’s first-ever left-wing presidency.

The president has denied the accusations, labelling them alternatively arsenic an effort by his governmental enemies to manipulate the CNE to oust him from power.

“The jurisdiction of the President of the Republic of Colombia has been broken. Today, the archetypal measurement of a coup against maine arsenic law president has been taken. If carried out, this enactment would correspond the top affront to our ideology successful the past of the country,” Petro said successful a code shared connected societal media connected October 8.

Petro, a erstwhile guerrilla and Colombia’s archetypal ever leftist leader, described the CNE arsenic “an administrative authorization captured by the absorption which seeks astatine each costs to formed uncertainty connected my integrity”, and added that the entity had “formulated charges” against him. As a effect of the CNE’s determination to analyse him, Petro has urged his supporters to instrumentality to the streets to denounce the alleged coup.

Opposition leaders dismissed the president’s claims and pointed retired that the CNE is wrong its law rights to probe imaginable fiscal misconduct.

Notably, the past 2 presidents of Colombia, conservatives Ivan Duque and Juan Manuel Santos, faced akin investigations from the CNE during their clip successful office, arsenic did the centrist Ernesto Samper successful the precocious 1990s.

Focused connected politicking

Petro’s claims of a coup person stirred statement successful Colombia’s already fraught governmental scenery and shed airy connected the spot and stableness – oregon deficiency thereof – of Petro’s administration.

The president’s strategy carries risks. By framing organization checks arsenic governmental attacks, Petro risks alienating mean supporters and deepening the disagreement betwixt his medication and different branches of government.

“Petro is digging his ain grave, and against each proposal helium insists connected keeping digging. For Petro, determination is nary mediate ground. Anyone that isn’t digging with him is facilitating a coup,” Sergio Guzman, a governmental expert and manager of the Colombia Risk Analysis consultancy group, told Al Jazeera.

Petro came to powerfulness successful August 2022, propelled by the Colombian electorate’s demand for governmental change.

His predetermination marked a governmental displacement successful a state that has historically shunned leftist governmental movements owed to their perceived relation with Colombia’s decades-long interior armed conflict.

He has vowed to dismantle inequality and instrumentality a bid of social, economic, labour and governmental reforms during his tenure – which the medication has truthful acold struggled to transportation out.

Guzman lays portion of the blasted for Petro’s stalled docket connected his adversarial governmental narration with rival governmental groups.

“The authorities seems to beryllium overmuch much focused connected politicking, truthful the underlying occupation determination is that the authorities has ended up without immoderate different program that isn’t putting the blame connected the opposition and connected this brushed coup for its ain atrocious management,” Guzman explained.

The CNE’s probe is by nary means a decease condemnation for the Petro government, arsenic the CNE itself cannot region the president from office. Should the probe uncover important run concern violations, the lawsuit could beryllium referred to the Commission of Accusations successful Congress, opening the doorway to ineligible and governmental consequences, ranging from fines to a trial.

“Colombia’s Commission of Accusations has ne'er convicted immoderate president successful history. I americium not truthful convinced that this volition effect successful perfectly anything,” Guzman added.

Tumultuous tenure

Petro’s assertion of a coup, whether a governmental manoeuver oregon a genuine fear, is the latest section successful an medication defined by ambition and adversity.

The president is nary alien to controversy. Since assuming power, the Colombian president has seen his tenure mired successful scandals and governmental crises.

In January, his lad Nicolas Petro was indicted connected charges of wealth laundering pursuing his apprehension past summer. His lad admitted to receiving wealth from cause traffickers intended to money his father’s run on the country’s Caribbean coast.

Nicolas stated that his begetter was unaware of the payments.

In addition, leaked audio past twelvemonth appeared to seizure a subordinate of Petro’s medication threatening to merchandise damning accusation astir his predetermination financing. The ungraded resulted successful 2 dismissals: that of his then-chief of unit and the ambassador to Venezuela.

It was a grounds of wider turmoil wrong the Petro administration. Petro has often reshuffled his cabinet, swapping retired cardinal figures connected 3 abstracted occasions.

That amounts to 38 antithetic ministers successful conscionable implicit 2 years successful a furniture containing 19 ministerial seats. By contrast, his predecessor, Ivan Duque, appointed 40 antithetic ministers during his four-year term.

Petro has besides struggled to present connected cardinal elements of his agenda. One of his astir salient pledges has been to bring “total peace” to Colombia by ending its six-decade-long interior conflict.

But galore of the negotiations helium has pursued with equipped groups have failed amid breached ceasefires and continuing violence.

Meanwhile, helium has struggled to rally enactment for his authorities successful Congress. While capable to propulsion done reforms for pensions and taxes, different reforms, similar his healthcare plan, person stalled amid opposition.

“What this each illustrates is conscionable however retired of steam this authorities is and however small country for manoeuvre it truly has. No 1 truly takes it earnestly immoderate more,” Will Freeman, a chap for Latin America studies astatine the US-based Council connected Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera.

Nonetheless, Petro’s support standing has remained constant, oscillating astir the 30 percent people for respective months, contempt his administration’s obstacles.

Guzman and Freeman admit Petro inactive faces an uphill conflict to present connected his legislative agenda. This is owed to the standard of his ambitions and the recurring governmental complications the medication has faced frankincense far.

Freeman added that Petro is apt to “spend the remainder of his word beauteous ineffectively”.

A hard way forward

Guzman added that the president’s inclination to make contention and discredit overmuch of the disapproval levelled astatine him had impacted his credibility some domestically and overseas.

“The concern has gone from interest to mockery for immoderate planetary observers, and this is superior due to the fact that it somewhat reduces the legitimacy of the accusations made by the president,” helium said.

But Petro’s medication has attempted to formed uncertainty connected the legitimacy of his astir caller scandal.

Speaking connected a section vigor station, Blu Radio, 1 of Petro’s lawyers, Hector Carvajal, said that the president’s defence would not recognise the CNE’s accusations, arguing that they prevarication extracurricular Colombia’s ineligible framework.

Still, Carvajal emphasised the seriousness of the proceedings.

“It is superior that a good should beryllium imposed connected the president of the Republic due to the fact that a precedent of this quality cannot beryllium acceptable successful the country,” Carvajal said.

Many of Petro’s supporters besides judge that the accusations against the president person been exaggerated.

“In examination to erstwhile governments, the [scandals] aren’t adjacent comparable,” Robinson Duarte, an economist who voted for Petro successful 2022, told Al Jazeera. He argued that the accusations were portion of a smear campaign.

“The main constituent of highlighting them is to equate the governments successful bid to archer radical not to person anticipation successful ideology due to the fact that politicians are each the aforesaid and they each steal. When that thought prevails, radical halt participating. They halt believing.”

Colombia’s governmental aboriginal nether Petro remains uncertain. While the president inactive enjoys enactment from cardinal sectors, peculiarly among marginalised communities and leftist groups, immoderate experts question his quality to govern effectively.

“It is hard for Petro’s authorities to execute everything helium promised. It is besides hard to govern arsenic the institutions are already built and chiefly occupied by radical who are adjacent to the opposition,” Duarte said.

“Perhaps Petro didn’t realise however hard it was going to beryllium to govern, and hence the trouble successful being capable to deliver.”