Could RFK Jr, Trump’s presumptive health secretary, ban vaccines?

When President-elect Donald Trump said helium would nominate Robert F Kennedy Jr, 1 of the nation’s astir salient anti-vaccine question leaders, to pb the Health and Human Services Department, immoderate societal media users warned Americans to update their vaccines.

“IMPORTANT – vaccines could present beryllium BANNED for portion of this wintertime by Trump and RFK Jr, though hopefully immoderate specified prohibition would get halted with an injunction successful court,” work a November 15 station connected societal media app Threads. “GET CAUGHT UP ON VACCINES NOW – conscionable successful case.”

For 2 decades, RFK Jr has repeated mendacious and misleading claims astir subject and nationalist health. His unsuccessful statesmanlike run of conspiracy theories earned him PolitiFact’s 2023 Lie of the Year. Kennedy, nephew of Democratic President John F Kennedy and lad of erstwhile statesmanlike campaigner Senator Robert Kennedy Sr from New York, ran arsenic an autarkic earlier suspending his run successful August and backing Trump.

Scientists signalled alarm astatine Trump’s determination to pat RFK Jr. There are 13 agencies housed wrong that department, including the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

‘The outlook is murky’

Scientists were acold from unsocial successful expressing interest astir what Kennedy could bash arsenic Health and Human Services secretary.

“Serious question – tin helium outlaw vaccines?” 1 Threads idiosyncratic asked November 14. “Like if I privation to get a COVID and flu vaccine adjacent year, is it imaginable they won’t beryllium available?”

The outlook is murky, partially due to the fact that nary 1 tin beryllium definite what RFK Jr volition do. On November 6, earlier Trump officially tapped him for the seat, Kennedy told an NBC News reporter, “If vaccines are moving for somebody, I’m not going to instrumentality them away.”

Vaccine instrumentality and argumentation experts told PolitiFact that Kennedy could not unilaterally prohibition vaccines and that immoderate effort to prohibition vaccines would apt look a ineligible battle. But RFK Jr could inactive trim however accessible they are for Americans, they said. And immoderate of his powerfulness rests connected whether Trump’s medication tin get buy-in from different legislators and nationalist wellness leaders, immoderate of whom Trump could besides appoint.

Wendy Parmet, a Northeastern University instrumentality prof and the manager of the instrumentality school’s Center for Health Policy and Law, said RFK Jr could not prohibition vaccines “by fiat”, oregon with 1 bid oregon decree.

He could, however, “begin the process of having the FDA re-review the information of vaccines and determination to revoke oregon spot restrictions connected immoderate vaccine approvals”, she said. “But this would instrumentality clip and would undoubtedly beryllium challenged successful court.”

There are limits to the Health and Human Services secretary’s level of power implicit vaccines, Parmet said. But if helium is confirmed, RFK Jr would “control the radical who power the agencies that person a batch of authorization implicit vaccines”, she added.

He could person those radical enactment to bounds entree by revoking vaccine licences oregon directing the CDC to alteration its vaccine messaging and recommendations, which would impact security sum and aesculapian practice, Parmet said.

Still, “there is nary authorization to prohibition vaccines arsenic a radical nationwide,” she said. “He would request an enactment of Congress for that.”

For years, RFK Jr has reiterated that vaccines are unsafe [File: Mark Makela/Reuters]

‘Procedural requirements’

Dorit Reiss, a vaccine instrumentality and argumentation adept astatine University of California Law, San Francisco, told PolitiFact that national regulations dictate however approved vaccines are taken disconnected the market.

“You request to conscionable procedural requirements and amusement that the removal was not arbitrary and capricious,” she said. “And the main histrion connected that is the FDA commissioner, not the secretary, and we bash not cognize who that volition be” oregon whether they would beryllium “sympathetic to the thought yet”.

The regulations accidental the FDA commissioner – whom Trump would besides name – could statesman the licence revocation process if the commissioner finds that “the licensed merchandise is not harmless and effectual for each of its intended uses.”

For years, RFK Jr’s refrain has been that vaccines are unsafe. In July 2023, helium told a podcaster that immoderate vaccines “are astir apt averting much problems than they’re causing”, but successful the aforesaid enactment helium maintained: “There’s nary vaccine that is, you know, harmless and effective.”

After notifying the shaper of the agency’s program to revoke a vaccine licence, the FDA commissioner would person to clasp a proceeding and besides supply the shaper “reasonable” clip to execute compliance with immoderate the authorities had asked of them.

“Manufacturers whitethorn good writer if they disagree,” Reiss from the University of California Law said. “If determination is nary capable justification, (they) whitethorn triumph successful tribunal against the revocation.”

Kennedy could marque vaccines little accessible

Reiss said it’s easier to halt the support of caller vaccines than to revoke entree to existing vaccines, but it would necessitate an FDA commissioner who is receptive to the idea.

She added that, arsenic secretary, JFK Jr could, for example, rescind exigency usage authorisations for COVID-19 vaccinations for children, which would effect successful children younger than 12 losing entree to those vaccines.

He could besides nominate oregon region members of national advisory committees, including the Advisory Committee connected Immunization Practices, which recommends vaccines that the CDC reviews and adopts. He could capable the committee with radical who clasp antivaccine beliefs who could past rescind vaccine recommendations, Reiss said.

Parmet said the CDC’s adopted vaccine recommendations find the vaccines “covered without charge” nether the Affordable Care Act and the immunisations disposable nether the Vaccines for Children program, which provides vaccines to Medicaid-enrolled and uninsured children.

Robert F Kennedy Jr is broadcast connected a ample surface arsenic helium speaks during an anti-vaccine rally successful beforehand of the Lincoln Memorial successful Washington connected January 23, 2022. [Patrick Semansky/AP Photo]

JFK Jr could undermine assistance programmes that enactment authorities and section immunisation, specified arsenic the CDC’s Section 317 Immunization Program, a notation to Section 317 of the Public Health Service Act.

The programme aims to guarantee that children and adults are immunised by awarding national assistance wealth to authorities and section nationalist wellness agencies to enactment vaccine purchases and cognition costs, the 317 Coalition, a vaccine advocacy nonprofit, said. Its 2023 study to Congress said astir of the programme’s backing supports the mandatory Vaccines for Children program.

Pennsylvania’s Health Department says the programme “plays a captious relation successful achieving nationalist immunisation sum targets and reductions successful disease”. Oklahoma’s State Department of Health described the programme arsenic “a precious nationalist resource” that provides regular vaccination for radical without security and responds to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Even without changes to authoritative vaccine recommendations, Parmet said “informal changes” successful CDC recommendations mightiness alteration parents’ willingness to vaccinate their children, power states’ vaccination proposal and impact immoderate paediatricians’ practice.

“In different words, by simply changing the wording connected its website”, the CDC could “discourage oregon trim vaccine uptake”, she said.

Legal challenges, manufacture pushback

If Kennedy’s bureau tried to enact a nationwide prohibition without immoderate legislature action, the effort would apt look palmy ineligible challenges, Parmet said.

It’s unclear whether a vaccine prohibition would triumph legislature support, but antivaccine legislators person made gains successful statehouses nationwide successful caller years, passing authorities that removes vaccine requirements for homeschooled children oregon preemptively prohibits schools from requiring students to person COVID-19 vaccines.

JFK Jr could besides statesman to person the FDA rereview vaccine information and determination to revoke oregon restrict immoderate vaccine approvals. But those actions, “would instrumentality clip and would undoubtedly beryllium challenged successful court”, Parmet said.

Reiss from the University of California Law said existing laws and regulations could constrain JFK Jr.

“He cannot interruption explicit statutory provisions unless they change, and needs to contend with different bureau heads,” specified arsenic the radical successful complaint of the CDC and FDA, she said.

Just arsenic helium volition sanction the Health and Human Services caput and FDA commissioner, Trump volition name the CDC and National Institutes of Health commissioners. In 2025, each these roles volition request Senate approval, and the Senate volition person a Republican bulk successful January. Trump had not announced his picks for these jobs arsenic of November 20.

Kennedy could “certainly effort and transportation these people, and there’s immoderate inter-dependence – they request the caput to walk rules and to name radical to advisory committees,” Reiss said. “But it’s the president who has the removal powerfulness implicit them, not the secretary.”

It’s besides apt pharmaceutical companies would defy by lobbying against efforts to prohibition vaccines and suing the government, Reiss said.

PolitiFact Researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report.