Cuomo is the clear favorite for mayor

For a scope of antithetic reasons, erstwhile New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is the wide favourite to triumph the June 24 New York City Democratic mayoral primary.

My firm, Honan Strategy Group, has conscionable completed a comprehensive citywide nationalist sentiment survey of Democratic superior voters, including the captious “surge” radical of younger, progressive voters. Beyond this, we conducted respective rounds of exhaustive investigation of the New York City elector record to analyse voting patterns, arsenic good arsenic caller predetermination returns.

The decision we scope is Cuomo is the wide frontrunner, should helium determine to go a candidate. That isn’t to accidental helium won’t look headwinds, but determination look to beryllium galore advantages successful his corner.

Like Mayors Abe Beame and David Dinkins earlier him, Mayor Adams is wounded, politically speaking, and precise improbable to triumph reelection. Multiple information points from our polling astir Adams and his occupation show show incredibly precocious levels of dissatisfaction. His continuing to cozy up to President Trump is simply a further disqualifier for metropolis Democrats. Celebrating Martin Luther King Jr. Day astatine the Trump inauguration was for Democrats the equivalent of dancing with the devil. In our poll, 85% of Democrats accidental Adams should not beryllium reelected and 64% judge helium is already excessively adjacent to Trump.

Democratic superior voters person a beardown consciousness of fearfulness and anxiousness astir the authorities of the metropolis today. In our poll, 75% accidental they judge the metropolis is successful situation and 93% complaint however metropolis authorities is tally contiguous arsenic lone just oregon poor. Voters privation authorities managerial acquisition that Cuomo tin tout successful abundance.

The existent strategy of ranked-choice voting successful the superior favors candidates with precocious sanction designation and the quality to excavation votes from crossed a wide coalition. Cuomo remains universally known, his favorable numbers proceed to spell up, and helium draws votes from virtually each demographic radical successful the city.

Ranked-choice voting besides undermines those candidates who spell antagonistic and the lone mode to spell aft Cuomo is going hard negative, and that attack doesn’t enactment good nether ranked-choice voting. Moreover, the Cuomo negatives are already retired successful the nationalist domain and baked into voters’ perceptions of him.

Our sentiment survey arsenic good arsenic the different caller nationalist and backstage polls each scope the aforesaid conclusion. When Cuomo is included successful the imaginable superior ballot, helium is the overwhelming favourite of Democratic voters. Cuomo handily leads the tract with 35% of the ballot and wins 58% of the ballot successful the 6th circular of our ranked-choice voting simulation.

We tested a broad contented artillery to recognize which campaigner is seen by voters arsenic being champion capable to code 12 cardinal issues facing New York City. Cuomo is perceived by voters to beryllium the campaigner champion capable to code each azygous 1 of the 12 issues that we evaluated the candidates on. Cuomo leads the contention for politician due to the fact that of the durability of his relation for delivering connected cardinal issues.

In presumption of who tin champion code the main contented facing the metropolis — a operation of crime, violence, and prime of beingness cited by 45% of voters — conscionable 12% judge Adams is the campaigner who tin champion code it, putting him successful a necktie with erstwhile metropolis Comptroller Scott Stringer. However, Adams, a erstwhile cop, and Stringer some way considerably down the 45% of voters who judge that Cuomo tin champion code the contented of crime.

The elector persona of the apt June 24 electorate is older, female, importantly non-white and Jewish, and resides extracurricular of Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn. The outer borough moving class, not the Manhattan elite, volition determine the victor and that’s the conjugation of Cuomo’s electoral successes again and again.

Cuomo is benefiting from predominant quality exonerating him and his administration. In politics, timing is everything and the upwind seems to beryllium filling up Cuomo’s sails astatine the cleanable time.

With the New York City electorate arsenic heavy Democratic arsenic it is, the victor of the Democratic superior predetermination is tantamount to being elected politician successful November. The information is clear: if Cuomo declares himself a campaigner for mayor, helium stands the champion accidental of winning the race.

Honan runs the Democratic polling and information analytics firm Honan Strategy Group. Honan is besides co-president of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants. His steadfast isn’t presently working with immoderate existent oregon imaginable mayoral campaign.