‘Dam for a dam’: India, China edge towards a Himalayan water war

New Delhi, India – Gegong Jijong lined up with hundreds of different protesters connected a acold day past period adjacent the Siang River successful India’s northeastern authorities of Arunachal Pradesh, shouting antigovernment slogans.

“No dam implicit Ane Siang [Mother Siang],” the protesters successful Parong colony demanded.

The Siang River, cutting done serene hills, has been considered ineffable for centuries by Jijong’s ancestors successful the Adi tribal assemblage – farmers whose livelihood depended connected its water.

But each of that is present astatine risk, helium said, arsenic India moves to physique its largest dam implicit their land.

The $13.2bn Siang Upper Multipurpose Project volition person a reservoir that tin clasp 9 cardinal cubic metres of h2o and make 11,000 megawatts of energy upon completion – much than immoderate different Indian hydroelectric project. It was archetypal projected successful 2017, and officials are present carrying retired feasibility surveys.

Locals, however, pass that astatine slightest 20 villages volition beryllium submerged, and astir 2 twelve much villages volition partially drown, uprooting thousands of residents.

Amid intensifying absorption from locals, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -led authorities authorities has ordered the deployment of paramilitary forces to quell protests, though determination person not been immoderate clashes yet.

The protesters importune that they are not going anywhere. “The authorities is taking implicit my home, our Ane Siang, and converting it into an industry. We cannot fto that happen,” said Jijong, the president of the Siang Indigenous Farmers’ Forum (SIFF) assemblage initiative. “Till the clip I’m live and breathing, we volition not fto the authorities conception this dam.”

But the BJP authorities argues that the protesters person got it wrong. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has insisted that it is “not conscionable a hydro dam,” but that its “real nonsubjective is to prevention the Siang River”.

From China.

A fragile ecosystem

At the bosom of the Indian dam task that Jijong and his assemblage are opposing is simply a geostrategic contention for h2o and information betwixt New Delhi and Beijing, who are locked successful a tense rivalry that, successful caller years, has besides astatine times exploded into deadly borderline clashes.

The Siang River originates adjacent Mount Kailash successful Tibet, wherever it is known arsenic the Yarlung Zangbo. It past enters Arunachal Pradesh and becomes overmuch wider. Known arsenic the Brahmaputra successful astir of India, it past flows into Bangladesh earlier sinking into the Bay of Bengal.

Last month, China approved the operation of its most ambitious – and the world’s largest – dam implicit the Yarlung Zangbo, successful Tibet’s Medog county, close earlier it enters Indian territory.

Soon aft China archetypal officially announced its program to conception the dam successful 2020, officials successful New Delhi started earnestly considering a counter-dam to “mitigate the adverse interaction of the Chinese dam projects”. The Indian authorities argues that the Siang dam’s ample reservoir would offset the disruption successful the travel of the stream by the upcoming Medog dam, and safeguard against flash floods oregon h2o scarcity.

But the beingness of 2 elephantine dams successful a Himalayan portion with a fragile ecosystem and a past of devastating floods and earthquakes poses superior threats to millions of radical who unrecorded determination and further downstream, caution experts and clime activists. And India and China’s unsafe powerfulness tussle implicit Himalayan h2o resources could disproportionately wounded Indigenous communities.

‘Major flashpoint’

The caller mega-dam successful Medog region implicit the Yarlung Zangbo volition dwarf adjacent the Three Gorges Dam, presently the world’s largest hydro dam, successful cardinal China. Beijing says that the task volition beryllium captious successful gathering its net-zero emissions extremity by 2060, and Chinese quality agencies reported that the dam volition outgo $137bn. There is nary contiguous clarity connected however galore radical volition beryllium displaced connected the Chinese side.

The dam’s construction, astatine the Great Bend adjacent Mount Namcha Barwa, volition besides beryllium an engineering marvel of sorts. As the h2o falls into 1 of the deepest gorges successful the satellite – with a extent exceeding 5,000 metres (16,400 feet) – it volition make astir 300 cardinal kilowatt-hours of energy annually.

The monolithic caller task is the latest successful a bid of dams – the erstwhile ones were smaller – that China has built connected the Yarlung Zangbo and its tributaries, said BR Deepak, prof of Chinese studies astatine the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi.

And these dams “should beryllium considered arsenic 1 of the large flashpoints betwixt India and China,” helium said, citing however “some of the biggest conflicts person originated retired of the trans-water rivers”. The h2o of the tributaries of the Indus River is simply a large bony of contention betwixt India and Pakistan. Ethiopia and Egypt, meanwhile, are locked successful a quality implicit a elephantine dam that Ethiopia is gathering connected the Nile.

But India’s response, by constructing a dam implicit the Siang River, “adds substance to the fire,” said Deepak. “Till China keeps damming these rivers, fears and anxieties volition proceed and stoke beardown responses from little riparian countries.”

A study by the Lowy Institute, an Australian deliberation tank, successful 2020 argued that power implicit rivers originating successful the Tibetan Plateau fundamentally gives China a “chokehold” implicit India’s economy.

The ‘chokehold’

Throughout history, the Yarlung Zangbo was often known successful China arsenic the “river gone rogue”: Unlike different large Chinese rivers that travel westbound to east, it turns sharply southbound astatine the Great Bend to participate India.

Beijing’s determination to take this strategical determination for the dam, adjacent to the borderline with India, has prompted concerns successful New Delhi.

“It is evident that China volition person the paper to usage the dam arsenic a strategical origin successful its narration with India to manipulate h2o flows,” said Saheli Chattaraj, adjunct prof of Chinese studies astatine Jamia Millia Islamia University successful New Delhi.

Deepak agreed. “Lower riparian similar Bangladesh and India volition ever fearfulness that China whitethorn weaponise water, particularly successful the lawsuit of hostilities, due to the fact that of the dam’s ample reservoir.” The reservoir is projected to person the capableness to clasp 40 cardinal cubic metres of water.

The fragility of the terrain adds to worries. “The damming of the stream is fraught with respective dangers,” said Deepak. About 15 percent of the large earthquakes – with a magnitude greater than 8.0 connected the Richter Scale – successful the 20th period occurred successful the Himalayas.

And that signifier of large earthquakes hitting Tibet has continued. On January 7, a 7.1-scale earthquake killed astatine slightest 126 people. At slightest 5 retired of 14 hydro dams successful the portion examined by Chinese authorities aft the earthquake had ominous signs of damage. The walls of 1 were tilting, portion immoderate others had cracks. Three dams were emptied, and respective villages were evacuated.

Meanwhile, the Indian authorities has told anti-dam protesters successful Arunachal Pradesh that a counter-dam is needed to mitigate the risks of China flooding their lands, punctuating its warnings with presumption similar “water bomb” and “water wars”.

Chattaja, the adjunct professor, pointed retired that neither India nor China are signatories to the UN’s planetary watercourses normal that regulates shared freshwater resources, similar the Brahmaputra.

India and China person been parties to a memorandum of knowing since 2002 for the sharing of hydrological information and accusation connected the Brahmaputra during flood seasons. But aft a military standoff successful Doklam – adjacent their shared borderline with Bhutan – betwixt the nuclear-armed neighbours successful 2017, India said that Beijing had temporarily stopped sharing hydrological data. That spring, a question of floods deed the northeastern Indian authorities of Assam, starring to much than 70 deaths and displacing much than 400,000 people.

“It is simply a problematic script and, moreover, erstwhile the narration deteriorates oregon it is malevolent, similar the mode it was successful 2017, China instantly stopped sharing the data,” said Deepak.

Sour neighbours, bitter relations

The Medog region dam was portion of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), and readying has been nether mode for much than a decade. However, it was officially announced connected December 25, triggering crisp responses from India.

Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said that New Delhi has “established idiosyncratic rights to the waters of the river”, and has “consistently expressed our concerns to the Chinese broadside implicit mega projects connected rivers successful their territory”.

He added that New Delhi has urged Beijing “to guarantee that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities successful upstream areas”, adding that India volition “continue to show and instrumentality indispensable measures to support our interests”.

Two days later, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, told reporters that the task “will not negatively impact the little reaches”, and Beijing volition “continue to support connection with [lower riparian] countries done existing channels and measurement up practice connected catastrophe prevention”. She again underscored the Medog region dam’s relation successful China’s pivot towards cleanable vigor and different hydrological disasters.

Yet, spot betwixt India and China is successful abbreviated supply.

Last October, the countries reached an agreement to disengage aft astir 5 years of a tense subject standoff successful Ladakh, pursuing a deadly subject clash connected the disputed borderline successful 2020.

But the statement indispensable not beryllium mistaken for an crystal interruption successful sour relations, warned Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute manager astatine the Wilson Center, a Washington, DC-based deliberation tank. “There are simply excessively galore points of divergence and hostility betwixt India and China, including this latest flashpoint astir water, to expect that we could spot spot successful relations,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Kugelman pointed retired that some India and China person borne the adverse effects of clime change, including h2o shortages, and their tussle implicit h2o volition apt lone intensify successful the coming years.

“India conscionable cannot spend to spot water, which it expects to travel down, beryllium bottled up successful China,” helium said.

‘Bangladesh volition look astir adverse impact’

But portion India and China prosecute successful a tug-of-war, experts accidental that the worst interaction could beryllium felt by millions of radical successful Bangladesh.

Although lone 8 percent of the 580,000-square-kilometre (224,000-square-mile) country of the Brahmaputra basin falls successful Bangladesh, the stream strategy annually provides implicit 65 percent of the country’s water. That’s wherefore it is viewed arsenic the “lifeline of Bangladesh”, said Sheikh Rokon, secretary-general of Riverine People, a Dhaka-based civilian nine organisation that focuses connected h2o resources.

“The ‘dam for a dam’ contention betwixt China and India volition interaction america astir adversely,” Rokon told Al Jazeera.

Those fears person kept Malik Fida Khan, enforcement manager astatine the Dhaka-based Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), connected borderline for a decennary now.

“We person entree to nary information. Not a feasibility report, oregon the details of the exertion that volition beryllium used,” helium said, his code tense. “We request a shared, and detailed, feasibility study, biology interaction assessment, and past societal and catastrophe interaction assessment. But we person had nothing.”

The Brahmaputra besides forms 1 of the world’s largest sediment deltas successful Bangladesh, earlier entering the Bay of Bengal, and straight supports millions who unrecorded connected its banks. “If determination is immoderate imbalance successful the sediment flow, it volition summation the riverbank erosion and immoderate chances of imaginable onshore reclaiming volition vanish,” Khan said.

India’s dam, Khan lamented, could beryllium peculiarly damaging to the portion of the basin successful Bangladesh. “You cannot antagonistic a dam with different down,” helium said. “It volition person a immense and fatal interaction connected millions of america surviving downstream.”

Rokon agreed. “We request to get retired of the ‘wait and see’ cognition regarding Chinese oregon Indian dams,” helium said, reflecting upon the Bangladesh government’s existent policy. “The treatment connected the Brahmaputra stream should not beryllium a specified bilateral treatment betwixt Bangladesh and India, oregon India and China; it should beryllium a basin-wide discussion.”

Since the ouster of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from Dhaka, whose authorities was backed by New Delhi, the caller dispensation led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has maintained its region from India. This besides means that determination is nary associated effort, oregon a unified pushback, from the South Asian countries to antagonistic China’s increasing bid implicit the Brahmaputra river, accidental analysts.

Whereas Khan sees this h2o situation arsenic “a aureate opportunity” for India and Bangladesh to forge ties, Kugelman of Wilson Center isn’t optimistic.

“We’ve seen that China is not a state that is receptive to outer pressure, whether it beryllium from 1 country, oregon two, oregon adjacent 10,” said Kugelman. “Even if India and Bangladesh were successful a presumption to muster associated absorption toward these Chinese moves, it would not beryllium capable to deter Beijing’s actions.”

Meanwhile, the menace facing communities connected the beforehand lines of these h2o tensions is lone going to grow, accidental experts.

“One cannot emphasise capable connected the value and seriousness of these h2o tensions due to the fact that of however clime alteration effects could marque these tensions overmuch much unsafe and perchance destabilising successful the upcoming decade,” Kugelman told Al Jazeera.

Back successful Parong colony adjacent the Siang River, Jijong says helium has nary clip to rest. “We person been making much and much radical alert astir the implications of these dams,” helium said.

“I bash not cognize astir the adjacent generation, but, adjacent if I americium 90 years aged and cannot walk,” said Jijojng, pausing for a agelong breath, “I volition proceed to resist.”