‘Entirely normal’: Why counting US votes takes time, is not a sign of fraud

Just hours aft the polls closed successful the 2020 United States statesmanlike election, arsenic millions of votes were inactive being counted, Donald Trump delivered an bonzer address.

“We were getting acceptable to triumph this predetermination – frankly, we did triumph this election,” the then-president told reporters successful the aboriginal greeting hours aft Election Day, alleging that “a large fraud” was being committed.

“We privation each voting to stop. We don’t privation them to find immoderate ballots astatine 4 o’clock successful the greeting and adhd them to the list,” helium said.

Trump’s premature — and mendacious — assertion of triumph implicit his Democratic challenger Joe Biden, who yet won the 2020 election, capped weeks of untrue elector fraud allegations made by the Republican incumbent.

Four years later, arsenic the 2024 race betwixt Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remains excessively adjacent to call, experts again are stressing that it could instrumentality days to number the votes — and that is not a motion of malfeasance.

“Just similar successful 2020, it’s wholly mean for ballot counting to instrumentality respective days,” said Sophia Lin Lakin, manager of the voting rights task astatine the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU).

That’s particularly existent “in intimately contested states wherever things are going to beryllium scrutinised and you’re going to person to number a batch of votes earlier you’re going to person a consciousness of who’s going to triumph those states”.

“It’s going to instrumentality time, and that’s owed to built-in verification steps successful the counting process to guarantee accuracy,” she told Al Jazeera.

Different procedures

Vote counting takes time successful the US for a assortment of reasons, including however elections are administered and however ballots are processed.

Each US authorities runs elections its ain way, and arsenic a result, each state’s ballot number takes a antithetic magnitude of time, explained Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, a prof of instrumentality astatine Stetson University College of Law successful Florida.

For example, the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin bash not let mail-in ballots to beryllium processed earlier Election Day, meaning their respective counts volition apt instrumentality longer.

“Others get a caput commencement by starting the counting process earlier during the aboriginal voting period,” Torres-Spelliscy told Al Jazeera successful an email.

“And states person vastly antithetic colonisation sizes. Wyoming has a tiny colonisation portion California has much radical surviving successful it than Canada. The bigger the colonisation of voters, the longer it takes to number their ballots, which tin fig successful the millions.”

Meanwhile, states besides indispensable benignant done what are known arsenic provisional ballots. These are ballots formed by radical whose elector registration presumption indispensable archetypal beryllium verified earlier their ballot is counted, thereby taking a small spot longer.

Ultimately, that it tin instrumentality hours — oregon adjacent days — aft Election Day to number votes is not a motion of immoderate amerciable act, Torres-Spelliscy said. “Just due to the fact that it takes a populous authorities a fewer days to number millions of votes is not grounds of fraud.”

Misperceptions, misinformation

Still, misinformation tin rapidly dispersed successful the clip it takes to tabulate the votes — and betwixt erstwhile the polls adjacent and erstwhile a projected victor is announced.

While states tin instrumentality weeks to merchandise their authoritative ballot tallies, US media organisations marque projections based connected their ain methodologies arsenic good arsenic preliminary results.

This “election call” — a quality outlet announcing a projected statesmanlike victor — tin hap connected predetermination night. But successful person contests, specified arsenic the 2020 race betwixt Trump and Biden, it tin instrumentality a fewer days.

Most polling starring up to Election Day this twelvemonth showed Harris and Trump locked successful a contention that is excessively adjacent to telephone and volition apt travel down to however the candidates fare successful 7 captious battleground states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

The imaginable for misinformation successful this play is particularly precocious successful a polarised federation wherever Trump has present spent years claiming that the 2020 predetermination was stolen from him and the electoral system wide is rife with fraud.

Those beliefs are held by galore Americans: According to a September 2023 survey by the Public Religion Research Institute, 66 percent of Republican voters said they believed the “Big Lie” that the 2020 predetermination was stolen from Trump.

A improvement known arsenic the “Blue Shift” tin besides adhd to mendacious perceptions that thing nefarious is going on, arsenic it did successful 2020.

The word refers to a infinitesimal successful US elections erstwhile the results statesman to displacement successful favour of Democrats arsenic much mail-in ballots get counted passim the day. Generally, much Democratic voters person voted by message than Republicans, but it remains to beryllium seen if that volition again beryllium the lawsuit this year.

In 2020, Trump “used that alteration successful the numbers implicit the people of the time … to make this thought that thing was wrong”, Lakin astatine the ACLU said.

“But it was the mean processing of ballots; it was conscionable a diagnostic of the mode radical were opting to ballot successful that peculiar year.”

‘Yelling fraud and irregularity’

Despite myriad experts debunking Trump’s fraud claims, the erstwhile president has continued to marque false allegations passim the 2024 race.

On the run trail, the erstwhile president repeatedly warned of elector fraud, including the imaginable that noncitizens were voting arsenic portion of a Democratic crippled to skew the results successful Harris’s favour — a assertion experts person slammed arsenic untrue.

His squad has filed a fig of lawsuits related to alleged irregularities connected elector rolls, the lists of radical who are eligible to formed ballots.

And Trump besides embraced the slogan “too large to rig” to impulse his supporters to ballot successful numbers ample capable to “guarantee we triumph by much than the borderline of fraud”.

“He’s already benignant of announced that he’s the victor earlier the ballots person adjacent been counted. This is the aforesaid assertion that helium made successful 2020: If he’s not the victor of the authoritative count, it tin lone beryllium due to the fact that of fraud,” said James Gardner, a prof astatine the University of Buffalo School of Law successful New York state.

“He has already laid the groundwork for yelling fraud and irregularity conscionable due to the fact that helium mightiness not win. If that’s your starting point, the information that it takes a portion to number the ballots is lone 1 of a cardinal antithetic things that you tin say.”

According to Gardner, “the basal of the occupation is that the Republican Party nether Trump is not consenting to play by the rules of democracy.

“It believes that it deserves to beryllium successful powerfulness careless of electoral outcomes. So arsenic a result, it does not adhere to immoderate of the morals of antiauthoritarian just play. Democracy is based connected just rules of just competition, and the Trump Republican Party is not committed to those.”

Potential for violence

Torres-Spelliscy noted that adjacent if Trump does accidental helium won earlier each the votes are counted, that benignant of pronouncement “makes nary quality legally”.

“What matters is who states and DC certify and which campaigner wins 270 Electoral College votes,” she explained.

Still, if Trump prematurely declares triumph implicit Harris and is yet recovered to person mislaid aft the votes are counted, that would adhd to the distrust, choler and feelings of injustice that already permeate among galore of the erstwhile president’s supporters.

“What’s going to hap this clip — what’s already happening — is that there’s going to beryllium each kinds of outlandish claims made done the media, and that volition astatine the precise slightest inflame Trump’s supporters,” Gardner said. “And who knows what they’ll do.”

Amid Trump’s mendacious fraud claims aft the 2020 vote, a mob of his supporters stormed the US Capitol successful Washington, DC, to effort to halt Congress from certifying Biden’s predetermination victory.

The January 6, 2021, insurrection continues to reverberate crossed the country, Lakin said, arsenic the mendacious claims of a stolen predetermination “created this immense disagreement successful this state and yet led to violence”.

“That would beryllium unfortunate if that were to hap again,” she said. “It would beryllium a travesty for ideology if we can’t fig retired however to instrumentality to a peaceful transportation of power.”