Experts: Indonesia’s $10 billion deal with China could undermine sovereignty, increase political tensions

Jakarta — 

Maritime information and planetary instrumentality experts are acrophobic that a $10 cardinal woody concluded this week betwixt China and Indonesia could not lone undermine Indonesia’s sovereignty successful the North Natuna Sea but besides spur amerciable sportfishing and summation governmental tensions among ASEAN nations.

"Indonesia could beryllium subjugated economically by China, perchance starring to subject powerfulness successful the South China Sea region," said Merisa Dwi Juanita, the laminitis of Bara Maritim, an autarkic instauration for maritime information research.

Recently inaugurated Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto began his archetypal overseas circuit by visiting China connected November 8. He held a bid of high-level talks and met with President Xi Jinping successful Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, wherever some expressed their committedness to long-standing bilateral relations.

"I would similar to reiterate our committedness to heighten this narration and to enactment unneurotic for the communal payment of our 2 peoples and for the prosperity, bid and stableness of each of Asia," Prabowo said during the meeting.

However, the associated connection that followed the sojourn alarmed analysts who presumption it arsenic a departure from Indonesia’s long-standing South China Sea policy.

Maritime information and planetary instrumentality experts who talked to VOA accidental the connection implicitly recognizes Beijing’s "nine-dash line" designating its expansive territorial claims successful the strategical waterway and could choler Indonesia’s neighbors wrong ASEAN. The Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam each are claimants successful the quality with China.

$10 cardinal deal

On his Beijing visit, Prabowo attended the Indonesia-China Business Forum, which saw the signing of concern agreements betwixt the Indonesian and Chinese backstage sectors said to beryllium worthy immoderate $10 billion.

These supply for the associated improvement of fisheries, lipid and state exploration and maritime safety. They besides telephone for practice successful the absorption of water resources and sustainable mineral extraction practices.

By implicitly recognizing Beijing’s assertion to territory that falls wrong Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone, Indonesia "has assented to thing that is amerciable nether planetary law," wrote Aristyo Darmawan, an planetary instrumentality prof astatine Universitas Indonesia, successful an op-ed successful The Interpreter.

"Even worse, Indonesia is consenting to stock its sovereign rights to research and exploit fisheries and lipid with the state that is making this claim."

He went connected to accidental that since 2017, China has enactment guardant respective associated improvement proposals successful the South China Sea, including the instauration of a Spratly Resource Management Authority – with rank not conscionable from parties to the territorial dispute, but besides Indonesia.

Indonesia is not a ceremonial claimant successful the South China Sea territorial dispute. Nevertheless, it rejects China’s assertion to the waters astir Natuna Island, which prevarication wrong China’s self-drawn nine-dash enactment but autumn wrong Indonesia’s EEZ and continental shelf.

In bid to make a associated improvement successful a disputed area, Darmawan concluded, China would request to person a morganatic assertion nether the U.N. Convention connected the instrumentality of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Merisa said the China-Indonesia maritime statement could besides spur amerciable fishing.

"There are increasing doubts astir instrumentality enforcement connected Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated sportfishing by Chinese fishermen. The important losses caused by IUU sportfishing could summation if Indonesia maintains the overlapping claims narrative. This could undermine the efforts by section fishermen and the Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) to support Indonesia’s maritime resources. Consequently, Indonesia would look adjacent greater losses if this argumentation continues," Merisa added.

Merisa suggests Indonesia should fortify its defenses by enforcing the instrumentality and amended protecting section fishermen against assertive Chinese seashore defender actions.

Regional implications

An Indonesian Foreign Ministry connection pursuing the statement maintained that the woody is accordant with the 2002 Declaration connected the Conduct of Parties successful the South China Sea, signed by ASEAN and China. It said the parties volition travel the maritime laws and regulations of each country, including maritime treaties, boundaries, marine spatial readying and fisheries management.

The Foreign Ministry said the 2 countries "agreed to signifier maritime cooperation. It is hoped that this collaboration tin go a exemplary for efforts to support bid and relationship successful the region."

However, the connection by the Indonesian Foreign Ministry stressed that the statement does not admit the Chinese assertion represented by its nine-dash line, which has been rejected by an planetary tribunal and is not supported by UNCLOS. Thus, the ministry said, this practice has nary interaction connected Indonesia's sovereignty, sovereign rights oregon jurisdiction successful the North Natuna Sea.

Indonesia believes the practice volition promote the completion of a long-sought codification of behaviour for the South China Sea, which could make stableness successful the region. However, Aristyo said that the statement exposes the disunity among ASEAN countries successful their negotiations with Beijing and could origin them to consciousness betrayed by Indonesia’s implied designation of the nine-dash enactment claim, which the others person firmly and jointly rejected.

In addition, Indonesia’s seeming designation of China’s overlapping assertion contradicts a 2022 Indonesia-Vietnam EEZ agreement, which took 12 years to negotiate. Due to uncertainty caused by the associated connection with China, the ratification of the statement with Vietnam could beryllium acceptable back.

According to Reuters connected Monday, Beijing did not instantly respond to a petition for remark connected Indonesia’s statement.

Aristyo sees the associated connection arsenic a immense triumph for Beijing. Indonesia had sovereign rights successful its EEZ and continental shelf, but the associated improvement connection would apt spot Indonesia surrender those rights to a Joint Intergovernmental Steering Committee, helium said.

He suggests that Jakarta would beryllium amended disconnected to absorption connected processing the Natuna Islands connected its own, alternatively than joining with China.