Experts: Trump faces tough task to denuclearize North Korea 

washington — 

The White House says President Donald Trump is going to prosecute the denuclearization of North Korea, though analysts accidental that is easier said than done.

White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes told VOA Korean via email this week that “President Trump had a bully narration with [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un,” and that Trump’s “mix of toughness and diplomacy led to the first-ever leader-level committedness to implicit denuclearization.”

Trump and Kim met 3 times successful 2018-19, successful Singapore, Hanoi and implicit the inter-Korean borderline astatine Panmunjom.

Trump, who has precocious called North Korea “a atomic power,” said successful an interrogation with Fox News past week that helium would scope retired to Kim again, adding, “He liked me, and I got on with him.”

Commitment to denuclearization

Former U.S. authorities officials accidental determination is nary uncertainty that Trump is superior astir resuming talks with Kim.

Susan Thornton, a erstwhile elder U.S. diplomat for Asian affairs, told VOA Korean connected Wednesday via email it “seems wide that President Trump plans to prime up wherever helium near disconnected with Kim Jong Un successful his archetypal administration.”

Thornton, who was acting adjunct caput of authorities for East Asian and Pacific affairs during the archetypal Trump administration, said Trump would “like to clasp Kim and North Korea to the 2018 Singapore associated connection that included Kim’s committedness to the implicit denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

However, “much has changed since then, and Kim’s manus is stronger, truthful it won’t beryllium easy,” Thornton said, referring to Pyongyang’s improvement of much precocious weapons.

The state-run Korean Central News Agency, oregon KCNA, reported Wednesday that Kim said it was “indispensable” to bolster atomic forces, arsenic North Korea continues to look “confrontations with the astir vicious, hostile countries.”

Last Saturday, the North test-fired what it said were sea-to-surface strategical cruise-guided missiles. Kim, who inspected the trial launch, said the country’s warfare deterrence means are “being perfected much thoroughly,” according to KCNA.

Evans Revere, erstwhile acting caput for East Asia and Pacific affairs during the George W. Bush administration, told VOA Korean connected the telephone Wednesday that Kim would hold to travel backmost to the array if helium believed reengaging with Washington “could assistance him attain immoderate of his ain goals with respect to his atomic and rocket programs and relations with the United States.”

Revere is skeptical that immoderate of Kim’s goals would see his regime’s denuclearization.

“The North Koreans mightiness dangle the anticipation of a treatment astir denuclearization to pull the United States into a dialogue, but it would not beryllium a superior proposal,” helium said. “Quite frankly, they are determined to support their weapons, support their capabilities, which they respect arsenic indispensable to their ain existence.”

Daunting task

Frank Aum, a elder adept connected North Korea astatine the U.S. Institute of Peace who worked astatine the Department of Defense from 2010 to 2017, said denuclearization is not a realistic extremity to execute successful the adjacent oregon mean term.

“The champion happening Trump tin bash to summation the likelihood of North Korea’s engagement is to resoluteness Russia’s warfare successful Ukraine, which would alteration North Korea’s leverage and awesome that a U.S. connection amended than the 1 successful Hanoi mightiness beryllium connected the table,” Aum said successful an email to VOA Korean.

North Korea has sent astir 10,000 troops to Russia to assistance Moscow successful its warfare against Ukraine. In return, North Korea has received subject oregon fiscal assistance, according to U.S. and South Korean officials.

The February 2019 talks, successful which Trump and Kim met for the 2nd time, collapsed aft Kim asked for afloat lifting of sanctions successful speech for the dismantling of the country’s main atomic analyzable successful Yongbyon, astir 100 kilometers northbound of Pyongyang. Trump demanded much should beryllium done connected Kim’s end.

Aum said Kim would apt not person budged from his presumption then.

“Trump whitethorn probe to spot if helium tin get Kim to judge partial sanctions alleviation instead, similar helium tried astatine Hanoi, oregon connection much for Yongbyon,” Aum said. “It seems wide that Kim volition not connection immoderate much information concessions than Yongbyon.”

Sydney Seiler, a elder advisor astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told VOA Korean via email connected Wednesday that “for now, it is improbable immoderate meeting, if it takes place, volition reasonably beryllium related to denuclearization.”

“Trump volition apt question to support the eventual extremity of denuclearization live portion exploring ways successful which to trim the threat,” Seiler said.

Referring to caller comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio connected the nonaccomplishment of sanctions to halt the North Korean atomic program, Seiler speculated that sanctions alleviation whitethorn beryllium offered for important steps successful the caller talks betwixt Washington and Pyongyang.

Seiler added that subject exercises and extended deterrence whitethorn besides beryllium reduced successful presumption of their frequency, measurement and scale, successful speech for a halt oregon slowing of Kim's long-range rocket launches and atomic tests.

In June 2018, Trump decided to suspend large subject exercises with South Korea successful an evident motion of bully faith, close aft his archetypal gathering with Kim successful Singapore. It raised immoderate fears among South Koreans that specified a determination could weaken defence against the North.