Fact check: Would Trump slash social security and Medicare?

Vice President Kamala Harris is rolling retired her closing statement for president successful a caller TV advertisement that attacks erstwhile President Donald Trump connected healthcare, entitlement programmes and taxes.

“What would a Trump 2nd word look like? It’s each laid retired successful his Project 2025 agenda,” the narrator says. “He’d fto security companies contradict sum for preexisting conditions, chopped Social Security and Medicare and springiness taxation cuts to billionaires.”

For months, Harris’s run has tied Trump to Project 2025, a 900-page handbook of argumentation proposals for the adjacent Republican medication created by the blimpish Heritage Foundation deliberation tank.

There is sizeable overlap betwixt the radical progressive successful the task and erstwhile Trump medication officials. But Project 2025 is not portion of Trump’s 2024 agenda, and helium has worked to region himself from it.

With that successful mind, the advertisement is simply a mixed container of accuracy. It refers to Trump’s erstwhile claims to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), misleads viewers astir “cuts” to entitlement programmes that are fashionable with older Americans and leaves retired that Americans with mean incomes would besides person immoderate taxation breaks nether Trump.

What Trump’s and Project 2025’s plans accidental astir preexisting conditions

To enactment its assertion that Trump would let security companies to contradict radical sum for preexisting conditions, Harris’s run pointed to actions and comments by Trump and his moving mate, Senator JD Vance, astir repealing the ACA. The 2010 wellness law, signed by erstwhile President Barack Obama, requires security companies to screen radical with pre-existing conditions.

In his 2016 statesmanlike campaign, Trump promised to repeal the ACA, and arsenic president, helium supported legislature Republicans’ failed repeal-and-replace efforts.

During his 2024 campaign, Trump’s presumption has gone backmost and forth. At times, helium has said helium wants to regenerate the instrumentality with an “alternative”. But successful March, helium wrote connected Truth Social that helium is “not moving to terminate” the instrumentality and alternatively wants to marque it “better” and “less expensive”. During the September 10 statesmanlike statement with Harris, Trump said helium has “concepts of a plan” to regenerate the law, but helium would “run it arsenic bully arsenic it tin beryllium run” earlier instituting his plan.

More than 1,500 doctors released a missive connected October 17 calling connected Trump to uncover details astir however helium would change the ACA, saying voters request the mentation to marque an informed decision.

Vance tried to capable successful immoderate of those details successful a September 15 interrogation connected NBC News’ “Meet the Press”, saying their medication would deregulate security markets but would inactive “make definite that pre-existing sum – conditions – are covered”. Days later, Vance floated the thought of grouping chronically sick radical unneurotic successful security pools based connected their elevated risks. Risk pools notation to a radical of radical who stock the burdens of wellness costs.

Putting chronically sick patients successful higher-risk pools would reverse a cardinal pillar of the healthcare law, which mostly ended the signifier by requiring insurers to enactment each idiosyncratic marketplace enrollees into the aforesaid hazard pool. This is done to power premium costs by utilizing the little costs incurred by steadfast participants to support successful cheque the higher costs incurred by little steadfast ones, according to KFF Health News. Separating sicker radical into their ain excavation could pb to higher costs for radical with chronic wellness issues, experts say, perchance putting sum retired of fiscal reach.

Project 2025 does not telephone for eliminating the ACA oregon pre-existing sum protections. It recommends codifying Trump-era rules to grow short-term, limited-coverage healthcare plans. Democrats telephone these plans “junk insurance”, arguing that they bounds care, complaint radical with pre-existing conditions much and tin pb to astonishment aesculapian bills.

Harris’s advertisement is misleading astir the Social Security plans of some Trump and Project 2025. Trump has said helium would not prosecute cuts for Social Security benefits, and nary of the argumentation document’s 10 references to Social Security outlines cuts.

In his earlier campaigns and earlier helium was a politician, Trump said astir a half-dozen times that helium was unfastened to large overhauls of Social Security, including cuts and privatisation. More recently, successful a March 2024 CNBC interview, Trump said of entitlement programmes specified arsenic Social Security: “There’s a batch you tin bash successful presumption of entitlements, successful presumption of cutting.” However, helium rapidly walked that connection back, and his remark stands astatine likelihood with fundamentally everything other Trump has said during the 2024 statesmanlike campaign.

Trump’s run website says not “a azygous penny” should beryllium chopped from Social Security.

Project 2025 proposes changes to Medicare, including making Medicare Advantage, the backstage security offering successful Medicare, the “default” enrolment option. Medicare Advantage plans person supplier networks and tin besides necessitate anterior authorisation, meaning that the program tin o.k. oregon contradict definite services. Original Medicare plans bash not person anterior authorisation requirements.

The manual besides calls for repealing wellness policies enacted nether President Joe Biden, specified arsenic the Inflation Reduction Act. The 2022 instrumentality enabled Medicare to negociate with drugmakers for the archetypal clip and precocious resulted successful an statement with cause companies to little costs for 10 costly prescriptions for Medicare enrollees. New prices volition instrumentality effect successful 2026.

Trump has said passim the run that helium volition not chopped Medicare.

Republican statesmanlike nominee erstwhile President Donald Trump speaks astatine a run rally astatine the Resch Center successful Green Bay, Wisconsin, connected Wednesday, October 30, 2024. He says helium volition not chopped Medicare [Alex Brandon/AP]

Project 2025 and Trump disagree connected taxes, but ‘tax cuts to billionaires’ are connected the table

Generally speaking, the benefits from Trump’s taxation program would spell to astir income groups portion flowing disproportionately towards wealthier Americans. Project 2025’s recommendations disagree from Trump’s taxation agenda, though its changes could besides effect successful wealthier radical paying little taxes.

Under Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, income up to $11,600 is presently taxed astatine 10 percent, income from $11,601 to $47,150 is taxed astatine 12 percent and income from $47,151 to $100,525 is taxed astatine 22 percent. People who gain much are taxed betwixt 24 percent and 37 percent.

Project 2025 calls for creating conscionable 2 income taxation brackets: 1 astatine 15 percent and 1 astatine 30 percent, and eliminating astir deductions, credits and exclusions. The programme says the 30 percent taxation complaint should commencement “at oregon adjacent the Social Security wage base”, which is astir $168,600 successful 2024.

The Project 2025 program does not specifically urge eliminating the modular deduction, the dollar magnitude non-itemiser taxpayers whitethorn subtract from their income earlier income taxation is applied.

If that were nixed on with astir different taxation credits, radical making up to $190,000 would wage a higher effectual taxation complaint connected their full income, portion the wealthiest Americans would wage a little taxation rate.

This is not Trump’s plan. Trump says helium would widen the 2017 taxation instrumentality provisions, which are acceptable to expire astatine the extremity of 2025. The instrumentality lowered taxes for each income groups, astatine slightest initially; wealthier taxpayers benefitted disproportionately. The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center recovered that the driblet successful taxation complaint ushered successful by the instrumentality for the apical one-fifth of the income spectrum exceeded that for each quintile grouping.

Trump would trim the firm taxation complaint from 21 percent to 15 percent for companies that marque their products successful the US. (The 2017 instrumentality had chopped the firm taxation complaint from 35 percent to 21 percent.) Trump has besides floated respective much targeted taxation cuts, including ending taxation connected Social Security benefits, tips and overtime pay.

The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model projected the effects of some statesmanlike candidates’ taxation plans connected a spectrum of income levels successful 2026.

It recovered that Trump’s program would summation post-tax income for each income group. However, the bottommost two-fifths of the income spectrum would person gains smaller than 2 percent, the mediate 5th would person a summation of 2.1 percent and the second-highest quintile would summation 2.8 percent. For cuts affecting the apical one-fifth of earners, gains would scope from 2.7 percent to 3.7 percent.

By contrast, the Penn Wharton exemplary projected that Harris’s program would summation after-tax income for the bottommost one-fifth of earners by 18 percent, the second-lowest one-fifth by 4.8 percent, the mediate one-fifth by 2.7 percent, and the second-highest 5th by 2.1 percent. The apical 5 percent of earners would spot after-tax incomes decline.