Food prices worried most voters, but Trump’s plans likely won’t lower their grocery bills

By DEE-ANN DURBIN, Associated Press Business Writer

Americans are fed up with the terms of food, and many are looking to President-elect Donald Trump to little their market bills.

Trump often railed connected the run way against hefty terms increases for bacon, cereal, crackers and different items.

“We’ll get them down,” helium told shoppers during a September sojourn to a Pennsylvania market store.

But the nutrient terms ostentation that stunned the U.S. — and different parts of the satellite — successful 2021 and 2022 had analyzable causes that are hard to unwind, from the pandemic to the Ukraine warfare to avian flu. And many economists think Trump’s plans, including putting tariffs connected imported foods and deporting undocumented workers, could really marque nutrient prices rise.

As of October, U.S. prices for nutrient eaten astatine location were up 28% from 2019, according to government figures released Wednesday. But the growth peaked successful 2022; betwixt October 2023 and October 2024, nutrient prices roseate 2%, which was little than the wide ostentation rate.

Supermarket sticker daze nevertheless weighed connected the U.S. electorate. About 7 successful 10 voters — including 70% of women and 63% of men — said they were precise acrophobic astir the outgo of nutrient and groceries, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of much than 120,000 voters. Only 1 successful 10 said they were not excessively acrophobic oregon not astatine each concerned.

Trump won decisively among voters who said they were “very” concerned. Around 6 successful 10 voters successful that radical supported him, portion 4 successful 10 supported Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival. Harris won beardown majorities of voters who were somewhat concerned, not excessively concerned or not astatine each concerned.

Asked however helium would little market prices during a September town hallway successful Michigan, Trump said tariffs would assistance U.S. farmers. Trump has called for a 60% tariff connected products made successful China and a “universal’’ tariff of 10% to 20% connected each different overseas goods that participate the United States. In immoderate speeches, helium mentioned adjacent higher percentages.

Trump said U.S. farmers were getting “decimated” due to the fact that the U.S. allows truthful galore cultivation products into the country. As of 2021, the U.S. imported 60% of its caller fruit, 38% of its caller vegetables — excluding potatoes and mushrooms — and 10% of its beef, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“We’re going to person to beryllium a small spot similar different countries,” helium said. “We’re not going to let truthful overmuch come. We’re going to fto our farmers spell to work.”

But David Ortega, a prof of nutrient economics and argumentation astatine Michigan State University, said that nutrient producers trust connected imported goods similar fertilizer, instrumentality and packaging materials. If they’re forced to wage much for those items, they volition rise prices, Ortega said.

U.S. farmers besides could person occupation selling their goods overseas, since different countries would apt respond with retaliatory tariffs, helium said. Around 20% of U.S. cultivation accumulation is exported each year, according to the USDA.

The American Farm Bureau did not respond to a petition for remark from The Associated Press. The Consumer Brands Association, which represents large nutrient companies similar Coca-Cola and Nestle arsenic good arsenic idiosyncratic attraction companies similar Procter & Gamble, says galore of its members request ingredients that are grown extracurricular the U.S., similar coffee, bananas and chocolate.

“There is simply a cardinal disconnect betwixt a stated extremity of reducing market prices and tariff argumentation that lone stands to summation those costs,” said Tom Madrecki, the association’s vice president of campaigns and peculiar projects.

Ortega said Trump’s plans to deport people who are successful the U.S. illegally could besides thrust up market prices. There are much than 2 cardinal undocumented workers passim the U.S. nutrient chain, helium said, including an estimated 1 cardinal moving connected farms, 750,000 moving successful restaurants and 200,000 successful nutrient production.

At the Michigan municipality hall, Trump said lowering vigor costs by expanding lipid and state drilling would besides little nutrient prices.

“If you marque doughnuts, if you marque cars, immoderate you make, vigor is simply a large deal, and we’re going to get that. It’s my ambition to get your vigor measure wrong 12 months down 50%,” helium said.

Energy makes up a comparatively tiny information of the outgo of nutrient accumulation and sales. For each $1 spent connected nutrient successful 2022, a small little than 4 cents went toward vigor costs, according to the USDA. Farm accumulation outgo 8 cents, portion nutrient processing outgo 14 cents.

Joseph Glauber, a elder probe chap with the International Food Policy Research Institute, said vigor prices are important, but they person already come down significantly over the past year.

“I deliberation it would beryllium hard for the Trump medication to person overmuch interaction connected vigor prices successful the abbreviated run,” Glauber said.

When asked whether Trump had plans beyond vigor and tariffs to little market costs, a spokesperson for his modulation squad didn’t springiness further details.

“The American radical re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin, giving him a mandate to instrumentality the promises helium made connected the run trail. He volition deliver,” Karoline Leavitt said.

Maria Kalaitzandonakes, an adjunct prof of cultivation and user economics astatine the University of Illinois, said her probe shows that astir voters deliberation politicians tin bring down market prices.

Jordan Voigt, 34, a azygous genitor of 2 toddlers, said she is presently surviving with her parents adjacent Asheville, North Carolina, due to the fact that the outgo of substance and groceries has gotten truthful high.

Voigt said she voted for Trump, successful part, due to the fact that she believes he’s a businessman who tin little prices.

“He doesn’t conscionable say, ‘Oh, this is however overmuch this is costing, the American radical person to instrumentality it.’ I admit that,” Voigt said during a gathering connected predetermination night. “He stands up and goes, ‘Nope, the American radical aren’t going to wage that.’ And he’s like, ‘You’re going to person to fig retired a mode to marque that cheaper.’”