Fox News Poll: Trump ahead of Harris by 2 points nationally

Former President Donald Trump is up of Vice President Kamala Harris in the statesmanlike contest, 50-48% according to a caller Fox News nationalist survey. That’s a reversal from past period erstwhile Harris had a constrictive advantage.

Harris, however, is up by 6 points among voters from the 7 cardinal battleground states and the candidates necktie 49% each among voters successful adjacent counties (where the Joe Biden-Trump 2020 borderline was little than 10 points). Trump’s vantage comes from a larger stock successful counties helium won by much than 10 points successful 2020 (64-35%) than Harris has successful counties Biden won by much than 10 points (58-39%).

That raises the question of whether the Democrat could triumph the Electoral College portion losing the nationalist fashionable vote. In 2000 and 2016, it was the GOP campaigner who mislaid the fashionable ballot but won the Electoral College.

Trump’s 2-point borderline among likely voters falls good wrong the borderline of error. The results are identical among the larger radical of registered voters. Last month, Harris was up by 2 points (50-48%) among some apt and registered voters. 

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This investigation uses registered elector results for apples-to-apples inclination comparisons.

These are Trump’s champion numbers since Harris became the nominee successful August. The question toward him chiefly comes from an summation successful enactment among White voters, who present favour him by 10 points, up from 4 points past period and 6 points successful August. He is besides astatine grounds highs among voters 65 and implicit (49%) and those with a assemblage grade (48%).  

At the aforesaid time, Harris receives her lowest enactment since becoming the nominee among Black voters (67%), assemblage graduates (49%), voters 65 and implicit (47%), and Whites with a assemblage grade (46%). 

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Yet connected the surface, the contention has stayed wrong a tiny range. In August, Trump was up by 1 point, past Harris was up by 2 points successful September, and present Trump has a 2-point edge.  

"Overall, the question toward Trump is subtle but perchance consequential, particularly if helium is making gains among college-educated voters," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. "However, the contention has been good wrong the borderline of mistake for 3 months and the result volition apt hinge connected which broadside is much effectual astatine getting their voters to the polls arsenic opposed to persuasion." 

The 20-point sex spread remains, arsenic men backmost Trump and women spell for Harris.

Fox News' Power Rankings person moved Michigan into the toss-up column, with some parties making a beardown play for Rust Belt voters.  (Getty Images)

The bully quality for Harris is she gets 52% of caller voters (those who haven’t voted successful the past 2 statesmanlike elections) and 20% non-MAGA Republicans.

She is besides maintaining her double-digit pb implicit Trump among independents. That keeps the contention close, arsenic each campaigner receives backing from implicit 9 successful 10 of their respective partisans. On the different hand, much voters nationally place arsenic Republican than Democrat, and that is what gives Trump the borderline successful this race.

While the vice president gets bulk enactment among Hispanics (52%) and voters nether property 30 (54%), some numbers way President Joe Biden’s enactment successful 2020 according to the Fox News Voter Analysis predetermination survey (6 successful 10 from each group). 

For Trump, the bully quality is that helium improved connected each contented and quality trait since September. And a bulk remembers his clip successful bureau positively: 53% o.k. of the occupation helium did arsenic president. That is 4 points higher than helium ever received portion successful office. Fully 93% of Republicans o.k. arsenic bash 74% of non-MAGA Republicans and 45% of independents.

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By comparison, presently lone 40% of voters o.k. of Biden’s occupation performance, which matches erstwhile lows successful November 2023 and July 2022. 

Only somewhat more, 43%, o.k. of the government’s effect to caller hurricanes, with astir Democrats approving and astir Republicans and independents disapproving.

The system continues to outrank each different issues, arsenic 40% accidental it is the astir important contented successful deciding their prime for president. Less than fractional arsenic galore prioritize migration and abortion, and acold less mention issues specified arsenic predetermination integrity, wellness care, clime change, guns, crime, and overseas policy.

Seven successful 10 presumption the system negatively. The 30% who complaint conditions positively is up from a debased of 17% successful 2022, and adjacent to the 33% who felt bully astir the system astatine the extremity of Trump’s term. Half of Democrats springiness affirmative ratings portion majorities of Republicans and independents complaint economical conditions negatively.

Overall, 44% accidental they are falling down financially, which is worse by 17 points compared to 3 years agone erstwhile lone 27% felt that way. Some 13% consciousness they are getting up financially, portion 43% are holding steady.  

Trump is seen arsenic amended than Harris astatine handling the system (by 8 points). He besides bests her connected migration (+15), transgression (+8), and guns (+6). With the expanding struggle successful the Middle East, it is noteworthy Trump is favored by 13 points connected Israel and the war, up from a 7-point pb successful September. He has improved his lasting connected each contented compared to September, mostly by tiny margins.

More voters spot Harris to grip termination (by 14 points), clime alteration (+12), and wellness attraction (+8). The 2 candidates are rated astir evenly connected taxes (Trump +4), Supreme Court nominations (Trump +1), and predetermination integrity (Harris +3).  

"Sometimes, elections are simple," says Shaw. "In 3 weeks, we whitethorn beryllium wondering however we thought the sitting vice president would triumph erstwhile lone 2 successful 5 voters deliberation the incumbent medication has done a bully occupation and lone 1 successful 7 accidental they are getting up financially."

Democrats and Republicans prioritize the issues differently, with the widest spread (28 points) connected immigration. There’s an 18-point spread connected termination and 15 points connected the economy.

Some 12% of Democrats spot Trump arsenic amended astatine handling the system and 18% consciousness that mode astir immigration, portion 17% of Republicans spot Harris much connected termination and clime change.

Republican statesmanlike nominee erstwhile President Donald Trump gestures astatine a run rally astatine the Findlay Toyota Arena Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, successful Prescott Valley, Ariz.  (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

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Trump is helped by much voters saying they cognize a large woody astir wherever helium stands connected their precedence issues than they bash astir Harris (57% vs. 44%). Fully 78% of Republicans consciousness they cognize a large woody astir Trump’s stances portion 65% of Democrats accidental the aforesaid astir Harris.

Less than fractional judge Trump (43%) and Harris (48%) are honorable and trustworthy, though Trump’s fig is simply a idiosyncratic best. Voters are besides much apt to spot him arsenic a beardown person (55% vs. 47% for Harris) and "up to the job" of president (53% vs. 50%). Harris has an borderline connected having the intelligence soundness to beryllium president (54% vs. 52% for Trump), but present again Trump is astatine a idiosyncratic best. 

Harris has mislaid crushed connected immoderate cardinal characteristics. She was seen arsenic amended astatine helping the mediate people by 9 points successful September and that has declined to 4 points now. Her 5-point borderline connected "fighting for radical similar you" is present 2 points, and her 6-point vantage connected "protecting idiosyncratic rights and freedoms" has disappeared arsenic the candidates are tied. 

Voters besides narrowly spot Trump arsenic the 1 bringing needed alteration and protecting escaped speech, some traits wherever Harris was favored past month. 

The contention continues to beryllium much astir Trump than Harris, arsenic astir of his backers accidental their ballot is for him alternatively than against Harris. Among Harris supporters, two-thirds picture their ballot arsenic for her, but one-third accidental it is against Trump. For comparison, successful May, astir fractional of Biden supporters said their ballot was chiefly against Trump. Among Trump supporters, 80% accidental they are voting for him alternatively than against Harris (18%).

When saying successful their ain words what 1 contented oregon origin was motivating them to get retired and ballot this year, the apical effect from Harris supporters is dislike of the different candidate, followed by protecting democracy, and abortion. For those backing Trump, the system and migration are the apical 2 motivators, followed by campaigner characteristics. Among men, it’s dislike of the different candidate, the economy, and traits (in that order), portion for women the system and termination necktie arsenic the apical motivator, followed by campaigner traits.  

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GREENVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 13: Democratic statesmanlike nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a run rally astatine the Williams Arena astatine Minges Coliseum connected the field of East Carolina University connected October 13, 2024 successful Greenville, North Carolina. With 22 days until the election, caller polls successful North Carolina amusement Harris and her hostile Republican statesmanlike nominee, erstwhile President Donald Trump wrong conscionable a constituent oregon 2 connected average, which is besides the lawsuit successful the different six cardinal battleground states. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Poll-Pourri

- As reddish and bluish states go shades of purple it is pugnacious to cognize what level of a fashionable ballot suggests a triumph successful the Electoral College. In 2016, Hillary Clinton got much votes nationally by a 2-point borderline but mislaid the Electoral College (by 77 electoral votes), portion Joe Biden had a 4-point vantage successful the fashionable ballot and won the Electoral College (by 74). 

- About one-third of voters wide and one-third of women accidental Harris becoming the archetypal pistillate president matters to their vote. Among the 17% saying it matters a large deal, 80% backmost Harris.

- About 3 successful 10 voters accidental they cheque quality aggregate times a time and they favour Trump by 10 points. At the different extremity of the spectrum, 1 successful 10 accidental they don’t wage attraction to news, and these disengaged voters favour Trump by 16 points. The 57% who travel quality regularly but not perpetually backmost Harris by 6 points.

- Most of each candidate’s backers consciousness definite of their vote, and two-thirds of some Harris’ and Trump’s supporters accidental they are "extremely" motivated to vote. 

Conducted October 11-14, 2024 nether the absorption of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a illustration of 1,110 registered voters randomly selected from a nationalist elector file. Respondents spoke with unrecorded interviewers connected landlines (129) and cellphones (719) oregon completed the survey online aft receiving a substance (262). Results based connected some the afloat registered elector illustration and the subsample of 870 apt voters person a borderline of sampling mistake of ±3 percent points. Sampling mistake associated with results among subgroup is higher. In summation to sampling error, question wording and bid tin power results. Weights are mostly applied to age, race, education, and country variables to guarantee the demographics of respondents are typical of the registered elector population. Sources for processing value targets see the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and elector record data. Likely voters are based connected a probabilistic statistical exemplary that relies connected past ballot history, involvement successful the existent election, age, education, race, ethnicity, religion attendance, and marital status.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 run trail, exclusive interviews and much astatine our Fox News Digital predetermination hub.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.