Harris' late surge in betting odds fueled by outlier poll, but Trump still 'slightly favored'

Vice President Kamala Harris has had a precocious propulsion to adjacent immoderate of the spread betwixt her and former President Trump successful the predetermination betting odds.

Trump enjoys a 13.1 constituent pb successful the statesmanlike betting likelihood arsenic of Monday morning, leading Harris 56% to 42.9% successful the Real Clear Politics betting average. The number, however, represents a precocious displacement successful the likelihood toward Harris, who trailed Trump by 28.9 percent points conscionable six days ago.

"Some of the polls person been getting a small spot closer, truthful I deliberation the betters are seeing immoderate flimsy momentum toward Harris," Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital connected Monday.

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a run rally astatine Jenison Field House connected the field of Michigan State University, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, successful East Lansing, Michigan. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Lott’s website shows a akin inclination to the Real Clear Politics average, with Trump having a 56.4% accidental to triumph the predetermination arsenic of Monday morning, portion Harris has a 43.1% chance. But similar the numbers connected Real Clear Politics, Trump’s pb has fallen by 5.3 percent points implicit the past week.

Lott, who antecedently served arsenic a programme enforcement shaper for the FOX Business Network, said galore inputs tin pb to changing betting behavior, pointing to a caller astonishing Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll retired of Iowa that showed Harris with a one-point pb implicit Trump successful a authorities fewer believed to beryllium successful play for Democrats.

While 1 canvass could beryllium dismissed arsenic an outlier, Lott noted that betters person seemingly reacted to the news, with Trump’s likelihood of winning the authorities dropping from implicit 94% a week agone to 82.1% arsenic of Monday morning.

"I deliberation there’s this benignant of communicative down that canvass that termination is really going to beryllium the operator this election, conscionable similar it was successful 2022, and that women are going to travel retired successful droves and elite Harris," Lott said. "I deliberation bettors are astatine slightest assigning immoderate probability to that being true."

Former President Trump speaks during a run rally successful Lititz, Pennsylvania, connected Sunday, Nov. 3. (AP/Matt Rourke)

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What Lott doesn’t judge is down the Harris surge is simply a tiny magnitude of precise ample bets successful her direction, pointing to betting platforms specified arsenic PredictIt, which bounds the magnitude of bettors and stake sizes connected definite outcomes, that person tracked successful a akin absorption arsenic each different level tracked connected his website.

Nevertheless, Lott cautioned against putting excessively overmuch banal into precocious momentum erstwhile it comes to evaluating the betting odds.

"Momentum doesn’t substance astatine all… for this benignant of thing," Lott said. "With a market, the existent terms is the champion predictor of the aboriginal price… if Harris was expected to beryllium successful the lead, you could marque a batch of wealth by putting her successful the pb by putting your wealth connected her now."

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a run rally astatine Jenison Field House connected the field of Michigan State University, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, successful East Lansing, Michigan. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

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Add it each up, Lott envisions a adjacent predetermination that volition apt travel down to turnout.

"I would expect connected Election Day, Trump to inactive beryllium somewhat favored," Lott said.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 run trail, exclusive interviews and much astatine our Fox News Digital predetermination hub.