Have Trump’s tariff threats helped China boost its exports?

United States President Donald Trump said connected Tuesday helium was considering imposing a 10 percent tariff connected imports from China, which could travel into unit arsenic soon arsenic February 1.

It was Trump’s latest commercialized menace against China, the world’s second-largest system aft the US, and Washington’s biggest geopolitical rival. During the run that yet led to his re-election, Trump threatened to enforce up to 60 percent tariffs connected Chinese goods, intensifying an ongoing commercialized war.

Yet, if the intent of the projected tariffs was to wounded Chinese exports, successful a bid to propulsion for US interests successful their commercialized relationship, Trump’s threats — truthful acold astatine slightest — look to person had the other effect.

China’s wide exports, including to the US, person grown successful caller months.

So wherefore is Trump threatening China with tariffs, however are Chinese exports inactive increasing, and what is adjacent successful their commercialized tussle?

Why is Trump threatening China with accrued tariffs?

On Tuesday, Trump argued that China was down the proviso of fentanyl to US neighbours, which helium said was successful crook liable for a deadly addiction situation successful the country.

A time earlier, helium said helium was considering imposing 25 percent tariffs connected Mexico and Canada, alleging the countries were allowing “vast numbers of people” and fentanyl into the US. He besides announced the instauration of an “external gross service” that would “collect our tariffs, duties, and each gross that travel from overseas sources”.

As 2024 came to a close, Chinese exports to US companies rose, increasing by 4 percent betwixt November 2023 and November 2024.

But much broadly, Trump has besides accused China of unfair commercialized practices. China, the world’s largest exporter, has a monolithic equilibrium of commercialized vantage with the US. In the archetypal 11 months of 2024, Chinese exports to the US totalled astir $401bn, portion China imported astir $131bn successful goods from the US.

Have Trump’s tariff threats made a difference?

It appears truthful — conscionable not the mode the US mightiness person wanted. As Trump’s inauguration approached, and the menace of tariffs connected Chinese imports grew, US companies ramped up their acquisition of Chinese goods to banal up earlier the import costs changeable up.

In November 2024, Chinese exports to the US stood astatine $47.3bn, up from $43.8bn successful November 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). That is an 8 percent increase.

Meanwhile, Chinese imports from the US dropped by 11.2 percent from $14bn to $12.4bn successful November 2024 compared with November 2023. Simply put, amid Trump’s threats, the US commercialized shortage with China widened.

While US authorities information differs somewhat from OEC data, it points to the aforesaid trend. Between July and November 2024, US imports from China reached astir $203bn, up 6.8 percent from $190bn implicit the aforesaid 5 months successful 2023.

China’s wide exports person boomed too. Last month, Chinese full exports deed grounds highs, up 10.7 percent successful December compared with a twelvemonth earlier, beating expert estimates. Total exports for 2024 reached $3.58 trillion, a 5.9 percent summation from 2023.

China’s commercialized surplus soared to a record-breaking $992bn successful 2024, representing a 21 percent summation from the erstwhile year, arsenic reported by the customs connected Monday.

And determination could beryllium much atrocious quality for the US.

“While this influx temporarily fuelled China’s commercialized surplus, the broader commercialized narration has been undermined by US policies,” Carlos Lopes, a Chatham House subordinate chap for the Africa Programme, told Al Jazeera.

“Escalation of tariffs and a continuation of unilateral measures could deepen the erosion of spot successful the planetary commercialized system, further pushing China to diversify its partners and trim reliance connected the US market,” Lopes, whose areas of expertise see planetary commercialized and China, said.

“The existent surge whitethorn connection short-term gains for some economies, but it highlights the fragility of a strategy progressively dominated by commercialized wars and unpredictability.”

What is Trump’s tariff war?

Trump has announced plans for tariffs connected China, Canada and Mexico since taking office, but galore different countries worldwide are besides bracing for akin measures.

He had initially launched a tariff warfare connected China during his archetypal word and by 2018, the US and China were imposing tariffs connected 1 another.

While a truce to the tariff warfare betwixt the US and China was announced successful January 2020, Joe Biden yet continued with Trump’s policies aft helium won the statesmanlike predetermination successful 2020 — contempt criticising them during his electoral campaign.

In May 2024, the Biden medication reviewed Section 301 of the Trade Act and imposed higher tariff rates of 25 to 100 percent connected immoderate Chinese imports. Electric vehicles and star cells were among the affected products.

“The Biden medication levy has tabled restrictions connected commercialized and tech with China, which volition beryllium hard for Trump to locomotion backmost on,” Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme and a China studies chap astatine Indian nationalist argumentation centre Takshashila Institution, told Al Jazeera.

China mislaid its presumption arsenic the apical commercialized spouse of the US to Mexico successful 2019, 3 years aft Trump was voted successful arsenic president successful 2016. As of November 2024, the apical trading partners of the US were Mexico, with $69.1bn worthy of full commercialized that month; Canada, with $61.8bn worthy of full trade; and China, with $50.5bn worthy of full trade.

“Trump sees tariffs arsenic important, not conscionable from an economical constituent of view, but besides from a negotiating constituent of view,” Kewalramani said, adding, determination mightiness beryllium tariff negotiations akin to those astir January 2020. But they whitethorn not instrumentality spot immediately, helium said.

“The timing of tariffs is often taxable to governmental manoeuvres and administrative processes, and the deficiency of transparency successful these decisions undermines the predictability of the commercialized system,” said Lopes.

“Unilateral US actions, without consultation with trading partners oregon adherence to multilateral norms, make uncertainty for businesses and investors. This unpredictability not lone disrupts proviso chains but besides weakens assurance successful the rules-based planetary trading order, which is already nether strain.”

The tariffs purpose to assistance the US ascent retired of its $1.9 trillion deficit. However, Lopes said, “Climbing retired of the shortage requires much than tariffs oregon protectionist measures; it demands strategical investments successful technology, infrastructure, and workforce development.”

What volition US-China relations look similar during Trump 2.0?

The US and China are the largest economies successful the world. The US gross home merchandise (GDP) arsenic of 2023 was $27.36 trillion, according to World Bank data, against China’s $17.79 trillion.

What volition hap successful presumption of tariffs during Trump 2.0 is unpredictable. “We’ll person to hold and spot whether thing adjacent to the 60 percent fig is reached,” Kewalramani said.

Out of the 26 executive orders Trump signed connected his inauguration day, 1 delays the enforcement of a prohibition connected the fashionable short-video app TikTok, which is owned by Chinese institution ByteDance, by 75 days. However, helium has threatened to enforce tariffs connected China if it does not o.k. a imaginable US woody with TikTok, according to the Reuters quality agency.

Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, which was attended by his deputy, Han Zheng. Kewalramani postulated that Trump and Xi volition proceed to engage, overmuch similar Biden and Xi, contempt determination being restrictions crossed the committee connected China from the Biden administration.

“China has already demonstrated resilience by diversifying commercialized partnerships and doubling down connected home innovation. It volition apt grow its Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] and put heavy successful precocious sectors similar greenish vigor and exertion to prolong its export competitiveness,” Lopes said.

The BRI is simply a web of highways, ports and railroads that China is constructing. This planetary infrastructure is acceptable to link Asia amended to Africa, Europe and Latin America.

“Importantly, China volition payment from the US’s unilateral approach, arsenic it positions itself arsenic a defender of multilateralism, creating caller opportunities to capable the vacuum near by the US successful planetary commercialized leadership. Instead of isolating China, US actions hazard driving its further integration into alternate economical networks, weakening the precise leverage the US seeks to maintain.”

How volition consumers beryllium affected?

“I bash expect an summation successful tariffs, but possibly not arsenic large arsenic 60 percent,” Kewalramani said, adding that precocious tariffs would magnitude to a “significant outgo detonation for American consumers”.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan national agency, Trump’s tariff argumentation would boost ostentation and shrink the economy, but determination are caveats.

A CBO study successful December connected the effects of tariff increases projected a 1 percent constituent emergence successful ostentation by 2026, perchance costing American families an mean of $1,560 per year, according to an appraisal by The Budget Lab, a nonpartisan argumentation probe centre astatine Yale.