Here’s how many wins the Yankees and Mets are projected by PECOTA to have in 2025

The Yankees and Mets made large changes this winter, but if 1 starring model’s projections are correct, some teams volition decorativeness the 2025 regular play successful akin positions arsenic past year.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings task the Yankees to triumph 89.7 games and for the Mets to triumph 88.9. The projections, which came retired Monday, envision some arsenic playoff teams.

The Yankees’ projected triumph full is the highest among American League teams. It’s the 4th highest among MLB clubs, down lone the Los Angeles Dodgers (103.8 wins), Atlanta Braves (92.4 wins) and Chicago Cubs (90.6).

PECOTA projects the Yankees to triumph the AL East implicit the Baltimore Orioles, whose projection of 89.2 wins is not acold behind.

It gives the Yankees a 78.2% accidental of making the playoffs.

The Mets, meanwhile, are projected to decorativeness 2nd successful the NL East down the Braves but up of the Philadelphia Phillies (87.5 wins), who won the part past year.

PECOTA predicts the Mets to beryllium the apical NL chaotic paper team. It gives the Mets a 77.5% accidental of making the playoffs.

As MLB.com explains it, PECOTA “uses predicted extent charts to found the projected runs for and against each team, earlier gleaning a projected triumph full from that.” PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.

Last year, PECOTA predicted the Yankees to triumph 94.4 games and the AL East. That proved to beryllium a beardown prediction, arsenic successful reality, the Yankees went 94-68 and claimed the part crown.

The 2024 projection predicted the Mets would triumph 83.5 games and marque the playoffs arsenic the NL’s 3rd chaotic paper team. The Mets ended up going 89-73 and did so gain the 3rd chaotic paper spot.

The Yankees mislaid superstar slugger Juan Soto to the Mets this offseason, past pivoted by trading for outfielder Cody Bellinger and person Devin Williams and signing ace Max Fried and archetypal baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

In summation to giving Soto a record-setting 15-year, $765 cardinal contract, the Mets re-signed left-handed starter Sean Manaea; added Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to their rotation; and bolstered their bullpen with A.J. Minter.

The Mets’ projection could alteration if they re-sign archetypal baseman Pete Alonso, who remains a escaped agent.