Hope still exists for Turkey-PKK detente, despite deadly attack

Istanbul, Turkey – The show of Devlet Bahceli, the person of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) walking crossed the level of the Turkish parliament connected October 1 and shaking hands with politicians from a pro-Kurdish party, DEM, was an improbable one.

The MHP leader, a adjacent state of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been a vociferous hostile of Kurdish demands for much rights. He has referred to Kurdish politicians arsenic “terrorists,” accusing them of links to the PKK, an equipped radical that is listed arsenic a “terrorist organisation” by Turkey and the West. He besides called for DEM’s predecessor to beryllium banned.

The committedness of caller bid negotiations betwixt Turkey and the Kurdish fighters who person waged a 40-year rebellion was called into question past period aft an onslaught connected an aerospace works adjacent the superior Ankara.

Bahceli aboriginal said his motion was a “message of nationalist unity and fraternity”.

Weeks later, helium raised the anticipation that PKK person Abdullah Ocalan, who has been serving a beingness condemnation since 1999, could beryllium granted parole if helium renounced unit and disbanded his organisation.

And then, the precise adjacent time connected October 23, an onslaught connected the TUSAS aerospace and defence company, which killed 5 radical and near the 2 assailants dead, threatened to reverse the babe steps that had been taken.

TUSAS manufactures civilian and subject aircraft, including unmanned drones that person been important successful combating the PKK, which has fought a warfare against the Turkish authorities since the 1980s, arsenic portion of an effort to assertion much autonomy for Kurds surviving successful southeastern Turkey.

The PKK claimed work for the TUSAS attack 2 days later. Its connection said the raid was not related to the latest “political agenda” but had been planned agelong earlier due to the fact that TUSAS weapons “killed thousands of civilians, including children and women, successful Kurdistan”.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Devlet Bahceli, person of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), be a Republic Day lawsuit to people the republic’s 101st day successful Ankara, Turkey, connected October 29, 2024 [Murat Kula/Presidential Press Office/Handout via Reuters]

‘Historic model of opportunity’

And yet, the onslaught whitethorn not beryllium the decease knell for the imaginable rapprochement arsenic immoderate initially feared. Instead, determination look to beryllium elements of an underlying tendency by some sides to propulsion towards a solution to a protracted struggle that has killed tens of thousands.

DEM rapidly made it wide that they opposed the TUSAS attack, condemning it and saying that it was “meaningful” that it took spot “when Turkish nine is talking astir a solution and the anticipation of dialog is emerging”.

Even aft the attack, Erdogan himself described the developments arsenic an “unparalleled opportunity”.

While commending Bahceli’s “will to absorption connected the close path” successful an October 30 speech, the president said, “Those who work the calls of the MHP president successful this discourse spot the historical model of opportunity.”

DEM is present reportedly trying to put a ceremonial operation for bid negotiations involving elder figures from crossed the governmental parties.

Ibrahim Akin, a DEM Party MP, described Bahceli’s remarks astir Ocalan arsenic a “sign of a caller era” and an denotation of the government’s approach.

“However, determination are inactive galore things that are uncertain and origin hesitation,” helium said. “We privation a transparent process to beryllium carried retired successful which each parties and each governmental actors are included.”

Supporters of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party show flags with a representation of jailed PKK person Abdullah Ocalan during a rally to observe Newroz, which marks the accomplishment of spring, successful Istanbul, Turkey, connected March 17, 2024 [Umit Bektas/Reuters]

Rationale

Following the Ankara attack, Turkey launched a question of aerial strikes against the PKK successful Iraq and Syria.

The radical has directed its operations successful Turkey from bluish Iraq’s Qandil Mountains since the precocious 1990s. The Turkish subject has severely curtailed PKK enactment wrong Turkey successful caller years done the constitution of dozens of bases connected the Iraqi broadside of the borderline and cross-border aerial strikes.

In northeast Syria, meanwhile, Turkey has besides targeted the PKK-affiliated People’s Defence Units (YPG), which the United States has supported since 2015 successful the combat against ISIL (ISIS), providing weapons and training. American enactment for the Kurdish equipped radical strained Turkey’s relations with the US.

While Turkey does not recognise immoderate separation betwixt the PKK and YPG, astir Western states person declined to database the second arsenic a “terrorist” group. Speaking aft the TUSAS attack, Erdogan said the 2 PKK assailants had crossed into Turkey from Syria, implicating the YPG.

Some commentators spot the rationale down the latest propulsion for talks arsenic Erdogan’s tendency to amend Turkey’s existent constitution, which would not let him to tally for bureau again unless aboriginal elections are called.

DEM – the third-largest enactment successful parliament – could supply invaluable backing.

“The ruling conjugation volition astir apt effort to amend the constitution to region Erdogan’s clip limits,” said Berk Esen, a governmental idiosyncratic astatine Istanbul’s Sabanci University. “They astir apt privation to disagreement the absorption conjugation and co-opt, if not straight the Kurdish governmental movement, past astatine slightest immoderate Kurdish voters, peculiarly blimpish Kurdish voters successful southeastern Anatolia.”

The thought of a woody betwixt the Turkish authorities nether Erdogan and the PKK is not arsenic far-fetched arsenic it possibly mightiness archetypal seem. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) made a beardown effort successful its aboriginal years successful powerfulness successful the 2000s to springiness much rights to Kurds successful Turkey, who had agelong been a marginalised group. A bid process launched successful 2013 appeared, astatine times, to travel adjacent to occurrence earlier failing successful 2015.

The existent determination besides comes astatine a clip of utmost turmoil successful the Middle East. US enactment for Israel has reportedly unsettled Kurdish groups, including the PKK, which has humanities ties to Palestinian equipped groups. DEM is highly captious of Israeli actions successful Gaza and Lebanon.

A 2nd Donald Trump presidency would besides apt spot US troops pulled from Syria, removing extortion for the YPG.

Esen said Turkey whitethorn beryllium taking a “pre-emptive measurement to capable the governmental vacuum that is emerging successful the Middle East” to “move guardant successful the region”.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, manager astatine the Ankara-based German Marshall Fund, said “favourable conditions, including determination actors preoccupied with different crises and the PKK’s weakened state, suggest an accidental for progress”.

However, helium questioned whether Ocalan, who has been held incommunicado successful caller years, retains capable power implicit the PKK to steer the process.

“Additionally, determination are limits to what the Turkish nationalist tin tolerate erstwhile it comes to talks with the PKK and having Ocalan talk astatine the Turkish parliament remains extracurricular of those limits,” Unluhisarcikli added.

A canvass conducted by the Institute of Social Studies connected October 24 recovered astir three-quarters of respondents opposed Ocalan’s release. In a little technological gauge of nationalist reaction, shot fans astatine a Fenerbahce lucifer successful Istanbul chanted insults astir the PKK person successful the aftermath of the Ankara attack.