How the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal will unfold — and why it its so precarious

By LEE KEATH, SAMY MAGDY and ABBY SEWELL, Associated Press

CAIRO (AP) — Israeli troops person pulled backmost to the edges of Gaza, the archetypal hostages person been released and galore Palestinians person returned to what remains of their homes successful the archetypal fewer days of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal.

If it goes according to plan, determination volition beryllium nary warring successful Gaza for astatine slightest six weeks, and dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners volition beryllium freed, portion much assistance flows in.

The question is if the ceasefire volition past beyond the archetypal signifier — and an appendix to the woody provided to The Associated Press reveals immoderate of the tensions successful it.

Extending the ceasefire depends connected adjacent much negotiations meant to statesman soon and yet tackling the pugnacious contented of how Gaza volition beryllium governed, with Israel inactive demanding the elimination of Hamas. Hanging implicit those talks is the anticipation Israel could resume its run to destruct the radical — adjacent arsenic dozens of hostages stay successful its hands.

Hamas has been designated arsenic a violent enactment by the United States, Canada and the European Union.

Here is simply a look astatine the program and the large challenges ahead.

Israeli troops propulsion backmost and Palestinians instrumentality home

As portion of Phase 1, Israeli troops person pulled backmost into a buffer portion on Gaza’s borders with Israel. According to the appendix, which AP has verified, the buffer is 700 meters (about 0.4 mi) wide successful astir areas.

That has allowed displaced Palestinians to begin to instrumentality to their homes, galore of which were destroyed oregon heavy damaged by Israel’s campaign.

But their instrumentality has been a complicated constituent successful the negotiations. Israel agelong demanded it support power implicit Palestinians’ question to guarantee Hamas does not determination weapons backmost to bluish Gaza adjacent to Israeli communities.

Throughout the war, the Israeli subject had barred Palestinians from returning to the northbound by severing Gaza on the Netzarim corridor, a loop that runs eastbound to westbound crossed the portion wherever troops cleared retired the Palestinian colonisation and acceptable up bases.

According to the appendix, Israel volition commencement connected Saturday allowing displaced Palestinians to instrumentality to the northbound without searches, but lone connected ft via the main north-south coastal road. In the coming weeks, it is expected to unfastened different way to ft traffic, without inspection.

A backstage institution — the details of which are yet to beryllium formally announced — volition hunt Palestinians returning successful vehicles to forestall subject hardware from reaching the north, according to the appendix. The papers says this volition besides commencement from Saturday, but it is inactive unclear however it volition work.

The appendix was confirmed by aggregate officials progressive successful the negotiations, who spoke connected information of anonymity due to the fact that they were not authorized to remark publicly.

Swapping hostages for imprisoned Palestinians

During the archetypal phase, Hamas is acceptable to escaped 33 hostages successful speech for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. The archetypal speech took spot Sunday with the merchandise of 3 Israeli hostages and 90 Palestinian prisoners. By the extremity of the 42 days, each surviving women, children and older radical held by Hamas should beryllium freed.

Currently, immoderate 94 hostages remain captive wrong Gaza, a premix of civilians and soldiers and foreigners. The subject believes astatine slightest a 3rd them are dead.

The adjacent speech is acceptable for Saturday. After that, if the woody does not collapse, determination volition beryllium play releases.

The 33 volition see women, children, sick radical and those implicit 50 — astir each civilians, but the woody besides commits Hamas to freeing each surviving pistillate soldiers successful Phase 1. Hamas volition merchandise surviving hostages first, but could merchandise immoderate bodies if they don’t person capable surviving hostages successful this category.

In exchange, Israel volition escaped 30 Palestinian women, children oregon older radical for each surviving civilian hostage freed. The woody says those released volition see much than 110 Palestinians serving beingness sentences. For each pistillate worker freed, Israel volition merchandise 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving beingness sentences.

Many of the prisoners who volition beryllium released were convicted successful deadly attacks. A fig of Palestinian prisoners volition beryllium sent overseas oregon to Gaza, according to the deal, but it unclear who this volition use to and which state volition judge them.

According to the appendix, Israel volition besides merchandise 1,000 radical detained from Gaza since the warfare began, arsenic agelong arsenic they are not accused of engagement successful Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, onslaught that triggered the conflict.

Dozens of antheral hostages, including soldiers, volition stay captive successful Gaza, pending the 2nd phase.

The Philadelphi corridor

At the extremity of the archetypal phase, Israel has besides pledged to statesman reducing its forces successful the Philadelphi corridor, a strategical portion of territory on Gaza’s borderline with Egypt — and, according to the appendix, they volition wholly retreat by Day 50. Israel’s request to support a semipermanent beingness successful the corridor portion Hamas demanded a afloat withdrawal was 1 of the knottiest issues successful the ceasefire negotiations.

At the aforesaid time, the papers states that the Rafah Crossing into Egypt volition beryllium reopened to let wounded and sick Palestinians — including a fewer twelve wounded fighters, whose exit would person to beryllium approved by Israel and Egypt — to beryllium evacuated for treatment, but lone erstwhile each the pistillate hostages person been released, including pistillate soldiers.

An Israeli authoritative told the AP that Israeli troops volition not beryllium drawn down successful Gaza during the archetypal 42 days, lone redistributed. The official, who spoke connected information anonymity to sermon close-door talks, besides said that if it does scope a woody with Hamas connected Phase 2 that meets Israel’s warfare aims, which see the afloat dismantling of Hamas, Israel volition enactment successful the corridor.

Humanitarian aid

In the archetypal phase, assistance to Gaza is ramping up to hundreds of trucks a time of food, medicine, gathering supplies and substance to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. This already has begun.

The need is great. Malnutrition and diseases are rampant among Palestinians, portion hospitals person been damaged and are abbreviated of supplies.

Implementation, however, could bring problems.

Even earlier the war, Israel restricted the introduction of immoderate equipment, arguing it could beryllium utilized for subject purposes by Hamas. Further complicating matters, Israel’s authorities is inactive committed to its program to prohibition UNRWA — the U.N. bureau that is the main distributor of assistance successful Gaza — from operating and to chopped each ties betwixt the bureau and the Israeli government.

Beyond Phase 1

Phase 2’s wide outlines are laid retired successful the deal: All remaining hostages are to beryllium released successful instrumentality for a implicit Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm.”

But that seemingly basal speech opens up overmuch bigger issues.

Israel has said it won’t hold to a implicit withdrawal until Hamas’ subject and governmental capabilities are eliminated. Hamas says it volition not manus implicit the past hostages until Israel removes each troops from Gaza.

So some sides volition person to hold to a program for governing Gaza. Hamas has said it would beryllium consenting to measurement aside, but it whitethorn inactive question a manus successful immoderate aboriginal government, which Israel has vehemently rejected. And it is improbable to springiness up its weapons. Israel has besides rejected the alternate of having the Palestinian Authority govern Gaza.

If each sides scope the 3rd phase, it is apt to beryllium little contentious: The bodies of remaining hostages would beryllium returned successful speech for a three- to five-year reconstruction program successful Gaza, but who volition wage for it besides remains unclear.

Sewell reported from Beirut. Associated Press writer Tia Goldenberg successful Jerusalem contributed.

Originally Published: January 23, 2025 astatine 11:35 AM EST