Hurricane Rafael set to hit the US - here's the projected path

A uncommon November Hurricane is barreling toward the US and could deed arsenic aboriginal arsenic this weekend. 

Storm Rafael was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane contiguous and could marque landfall anyplace from the Texas seashore to the Florida Panhandle.

The tempest expected to deed occidental Cuba and the Isle of Youth wrong the adjacent 12 hours. 

From there, experts foretell Rafael volition look into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico contiguous arsenic a hurricane.

Tropical tempest conditions are anticipated successful Florida Keys, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issuing a informing to residents.

Americans person been advised to unafraid escaped outdoor objects owed to beardown winds and flooding.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said that tiny changes successful Rafael's spot and the winds astir it tin marque a large quality successful wherever it goes next.

The storm  gets a spot stronger oregon if the winds that propulsion it alteration direction, its way could shift.

A spaghetti exemplary - alleged due to the fact that the lines lucifer strands of pasta - revealed Rafael has 4 imaginable paths to the US, but has the highest probability of making landfall successful Louisiana. 

However, the NHC has issued a tropical tempest informing for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys today, arsenic Rafael could deliver up to 3 inches of rainfall and summation tornado risk arsenic it passes by the Sunshine State. 

'Bands of rainfall containing gusty winds volition interaction this country done Wednesday night. A fewer tornadoes cannot beryllium ruled retired successful the Keys and acold southwestern Florida arsenic well,' The Weather Channel reported. 

The NHC stated that it's inactive excessively aboriginal to find erstwhile and however Rafael volition interaction the Gulf Coast of the US, but residents should proceed to monitor the forecast for updates.

As of 10:00am ET, Rafael was located astir 130 miles south-southeast of Havana and tracking northwest astatine 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, according to the NHC. 

A hurricane informing is successful effect for this region, and locals should brace for 'damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening tempest surge and destructive waves,' according to the advisory.

The tempest volition besides driblet dense rainfall implicit parts of the Western Caribbean done aboriginal Thursday, the NHC stated, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and occidental Cuba. 

Once the strategy moves into the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael is expected to weaken arsenic the situation becomes progressively little conducive for the hurricane to support its intensity, the NHC stated. 

'It is besides imaginable Rafael is torn isolated by beardown winds precocious successful the ambiance and dissipates successful the Gulf of Mexico earlier making landfall,' Deger said.

An alternate way prediction has Rafael tracking westward crossed the Gulf alternatively of heading northbound toward the US. If that happens, the interaction to the US would beryllium minimal, according to AccuWeather. 

If Rafael weakens, but remains intact, and turns toward the bluish Gulf Coast, it could heighten rainfall on a acold beforehand this play into aboriginal adjacent week, The Weather Channel reported. 

Rafael is the 17th named tempest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 

Though it is not expected to straight interaction Florida, tropical tempest conditions could enactment added strain connected section communities inactive reeling from hurricanes Helene and Milton, which ravaged the authorities wrong 2 weeks of each other. 

These storms caused wide harm successful the Sunshine State, sidesplitting an estimated combined full of 54 people. 

According to the Office of Insurance Regulation, estimated security claims arsenic a effect of some Helene and Milton person exceeded $4 cardinal successful Florida.

As Rafael tracks toward the US, Floridians should regularly show updates to the upwind forecast, the NHC advised.  

It is precise uncommon for hurricanes to deed the US successful November. 

That's due to the fact that this is the past period of the Atlantic hurricane season, and favorable conditions for tropical tempest enactment person decreased.

A full of 287 hurricanes person made landfall successful the US since grounds keeping began successful 1851, and of those, lone 4 hit successful November, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database.

The astir caller 1 - Hurricane Nicole - deed Florida successful November 2022. Before that, the US hadn't seen a November hurricane since Katie successful 1985. 

Rafael is the strongest hurricane to determination done the northwestern Caribbean successful November since 2009, according to NOAA.   

As the tempest closes successful connected Cuba, experts accidental it's imaginable that it could inactive strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane earlier making landfall.

Nine storms - including Rafael - person rapidly intensified successful the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by unprecedentedly precocious water temperatures. 

Rapid tempest intensification is becoming much communal arsenic the ambiance and oceans lukewarm owed to climate change, according to NOAA.