If Trump imposes tariffs, what could Canada’s provinces stand to lose?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the premiers of Canada’s provinces volition conscionable Wednesday evening aft U.S. president-elect Donald Trump threatened to enforce a 25 per cent tariff connected Canadian goods.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said a “Team Canada approach” is going to beryllium captious successful the look of sweeping caller tariffs pledged by Trump.

For the premiers, safeguarding their exports and economies is apical of mind.

Eric Johnson, elder economist astatine BMO Capital Markets, said immoderate of Canada’s biggest provinces would person a batch to suffer if the tariffs spell into effect.

“Ontario truly does travel to caput here. Alberta does arsenic well,” helium said.

As of 2022, Canada’s biggest export to the United States successful presumption of worth was crude oil, worthy $152.6 billion. According to Statistics Canada, the U.S. accounted for 97.4 per cent of Canada’s crude lipid exports, with Alberta contributing to 87.4 per cent of the full measurement exported to the U.S.

In her absorption to the tariff threat, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said successful a societal media post that the Trump medication has “valid concerns related to amerciable activities” astatine the border, referencing Trump’s stated borderline information concerns.

But she added that a immense bulk of Alberta’s vigor exports to the U.S. are “delivered done unafraid and harmless pipelines,” which “do not successful immoderate mode lend to these amerciable activities.”

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Trump’s connection was the “biggest threat” from the U.S. medication successful decades and that it’s “very, precise hurtful to Canadians and Americans” connected some sides of the border.

“We emotion our American friends and they emotion america and this is nary mode to dainty your closest ally,” helium said.

“I anticipation we tin travel up with a solution to enactment some sides of the border. We’re collaboratively successful co-operation with the caller administration, and I’m assured we will,” Ford said.

Ontario is the highest-value exporting state to the United States, with its exports to its confederate neighbour amounting to an yearly $220.5 billion. Ontario’s highest-value export is centrifugal vehicles, amounting to $36 billion, followed by golden astatine $17.66 billion.

Johnson said tariffs could dilatory down Ontario’s investments successful electrical vehicles, artillery accumulation oregon captious minerals.

“If these tariffs were to beryllium successful spot for immoderate meaningful magnitude of time, I bash deliberation that’s going to dilatory down immoderate of that investment,” helium said.

Flavio Volpe, president of the Autoparts Manufacturers Association, said Canada’s car assemblage is profoundly linked with the United States.

“Half of the cars that we marque successful Canada are American companies’ cars. Half of the components that travel into each of the cars that get manufactured travel from the U.S. and 55 per cent of the earthy materials to marque those components successful cars travel from the U.S.,” helium said.

Speaking to reporters successful Quebec City, Quebec Premier François Legault said that everything indispensable beryllium done to debar the tariffs, which could pb to the nonaccomplishment of thousands of jobs.

Quebec exports $10.8 cardinal worthy of unwrought aluminum each year, with the United States accounting for 73.9 per cent of its full exports.

Jean Simard, president of the Aluminum Association of Canada, said the aluminum manufacture could beryllium forced to pivot to Europe.

“Everybody wants our metal, but Europe is surely the cardinal market. Europe is successful an aluminum deficit, arsenic the U.S. is,” helium said. “We mightiness determine to vessel to Europe and they’ll instrumentality everything we tin nonstop there, particularly since Russian metallic has been sanctioned retired of the market.”

Quebec is not unsocial successful exporting captious minerals to the United States.

Yukon’s largest export is copper ore worthy $163.1 cardinal annually, with the U.S. accounting for 95 per cent of its full worth of exports.

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When the archetypal Trump medication announced tariffs connected Canadian softwood lumber successful 2017, British Columbia was 1 of the hardest-hit provinces.

Experts said the B.C. industries that could beryllium deed the hardest see softwood lumber, energy, electricity, mining, agriculture and fisheries.

“Obviously, this volition beryllium devastating to workers connected some sides of the border, some successful the United States and successful Canada,” Premier David Eby said connected Tuesday.

“The interaction connected families volition beryllium profoundly significant.”

However, B.C.’s commercialized portfolio is comparatively diversified compared with immoderate different provinces, with exports to the U.S. amounting to 57 per cent of full exports.

Asia is B.C.’s second-largest trading partner, with 35.5 per cent of the province’s exports heading determination each year.

“Pharmaceuticals is different manufacture that’s beauteous export-reliant arsenic well,” Johnson said.

Manitoba is the state that stands to suffer the astir erstwhile it comes to pharmaceuticals, with medicine export amounting to $2.7 cardinal a twelvemonth arsenic its biggest export. 

The U.S. accounts for 73.4 per cent of its exports.

Wheat is Manitoba’s second-largest export, amounting to $1.6 billion.

Farming groups are informing astir adverse effects connected agriculture, with the Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) saying that 70 per cent of Canada’s grains are exported, with exports to the U.S. amounting to $14 billion.

“The imposition of sweeping tariffs would make instability for farmers who are already facing choky margins owed to rising input costs, changing upwind patterns, and accrued authorities taxation,” the radical said successful a statement.

Prince Edward Island’s frozen potatoes and different rootlike exports magnitude to $490.9 cardinal a year.

Other agri-businesses and nutrient businesses, specified arsenic Saskatchewan’s fertilizer manufacture and Nova Scotia’s seafood exporters, volition apt beryllium watching announcements from Washington and Ottawa arsenic well.

While Trump has projected sweeping tariffs, experts accidental it is not yet definite helium volition spell up with them.

“The adage that you person to instrumentality Donald Trump seriously, but not literally, is precise applicable here,” Johnson said.

Tu Nguyen, an economist astatine RSM, said, “What is much apt to hap is that determination volition beryllium commercialized negotiations betwixt the U.S., Canada and Mexico alternatively than broad tariffs. Tariffs connected each goods coming from a state is really precise hard to instrumentality successful reality.”