Key battleground state voter registration data shows influential shifts favoring GOP

The Democratic Party is losing its borderline implicit the GOP successful the captious plaything authorities of Pennsylvania, with Democrats changing their enactment affiliation astatine much than doubly the complaint of Republicans, according to authorities information released aft voter registration ended Monday evening.

A full of 9,088,583 registered voters were tallied crossed the authorities erstwhile the sign-up play ended astatine midnight connected Monday. Registered Democrats maintained a pb implicit registered Republicans, at 3,971,607 registered Democrats to the GOP’s 3,673,783. 

More than 1.4 cardinal voters are registered arsenic third-party oregon autarkic voters successful the Keystone State. 

Though the Democratic Party accounts for astir 44% of registered voters compared to the GOP's 40%, it has seen its vantage implicit Republicans dwindle this year. 

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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (Getty Images)

In 2020, determination were 9,090,962 registered voters crossed the parties successful Pennsylvania, lone somewhat much than the 9,088,583 voters registered this cycle. 

President Biden won the authorities successful 2020 by 1.17 percent points​. That year, Democrats had a larger borderline of registered voters compared to their Republican counterparts, astatine 4.2 cardinal to 3.5 million. The information amusement that Democrats had a registration vantage implicit Republicans by 685,818 voters during an predetermination Biden won by 80,555 votes.

The GOP has whittled down that pb this twelvemonth to a 297,824 margin. When comparing registered voters this predetermination twelvemonth to 2020, Democrats look a nett nonaccomplishment of 257,281 voters, portion Republicans person a nett summation of 428,537 registered voters. 

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More than treble the fig of antecedently registered Democrats changed their enactment affiliation this rhythm compared to the fig of registered Republicans who near the party: 54,668 registered Democrats changed their enactment affiliation compared to 25,634 Republicans, Pennsylvania Department of State information shows.

The information is breached down by county, with Philadelphia notably reporting 18,928 Democrats changed their enactment affiliation compared to conscionable 3,401 Republicans doing the same. Bucks County, which sits extracurricular of the City of Brotherly Love, reported 2,089 Democrats changed their enactment affiliation compared to 1,624 Republicans. In Allegheny County, location to the state's second-largest metropolis of Pittsburgh, 6,564 Democrats changed their enactment affiliation portion 2,202 Republicans did the same. 

A elector fills retired a mail-in ballot astatine the Board of Elections bureau successful the Allegheny County Office Building connected Nov. 3, 2022, successful Pittsburgh. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

The registered elector information comes aft reports surfaced that concerns were mounting wrong the Democratic Party that the Harris campaign is failing to efficaciously link with voters successful Pennsylvania. 

Poor run absorption and staffers lacking relationships with Democratic governmental leaders successful the Keystone State are allegedly rocking the campaign, Politico reported past week. The outlet reported that Democrats are disquieted that the campaign’s authorities manager lacks an knowing of Philadelphia, the state’s largest city, portion run staffers person allegedly not invited section Democratic politicians to events successful the state, and person not efficaciously deployed surrogates. 

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Politico reported that it spoke with 20 Democratic politicians, allies and enactment leaders for the story, who reported they are restless over Harris’ campaigning efforts. 

"Our run is moving the largest and astir blase cognition successful Pennsylvania history," Harris’ nationalist run manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez said successful remark to Fox News Digital erstwhile asked astir the study past week. "While Trump’s squad inactive refuses to archer reporters however fewer unit they person successful the state, we person 50 coordinated offices and astir 400 staff connected the ground."

"While the Trump run closed its ‘minority outreach offices,’ we invested successful targeted advertizing to Black and Latino voters starting successful August of 2023 and person present spent much than immoderate erstwhile statesmanlike run connected outreach to these communities. The Vice President is besides campaigning aggressively successful Pennsylvania – spending 1 retired of 3 days successful the authorities successful September."

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks astatine a run lawsuit astatine Divine Faith Ministries International connected Oct. 20, 2024, successful Jonesboro, Georgia. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

Vulnerable incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey made nationalist headlines past week erstwhile helium distanced himself from Democratic Party leaders and launched a run advertisement detailing however helium "bucked Biden" and "sided" with erstwhile President Trump. 

The advertisement features a joined mates – Republican Marygrace and her Democrat hubby Joe – praising Casey arsenic an "independent," citing his enactment for Trump's commercialized policies and efforts to "protect fracking" from the Biden administration.

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"Our matrimony – axenic bliss! But connected politics, we conscionable don’t agree. Except for Bob Casey. He’s independent," Marygrace says, with her hubby chiming in, "That's right!"

"Casey’s starring the effort to halt firm greedflation and price-gouging," Marygrace continues. "Casey bucked Biden to support fracking and helium sided with Trump to extremity NAFTA and enactment tariffs connected China to halt them from cheating. So successful this house, we agree, it’s Bob Casey who’s doing close by Pennsylvania."

Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick (Mark Makela/Getty Images)

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Casey has served successful the Senate since 2007, yet becoming a stalwart wrong the Democratic Party, voting connected authorities Biden supported, for example, 98.5% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight data. He is present facing his toughest re-election effort yet, arsenic helium squares up against Republican challenger Dave McCormick. 

The Fox News Power Rankings people the statesmanlike contention successful Pennsylvania arsenic a toss-up, with the Senate contention a thin Democrat designation. The Cook Political Report, this week, however, shifted the Senate contention from a leans Democrat contention to a toss-up race, underscoring Casey’s hard re-election battle. 

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Pennsylvania is touted arsenic the authorities that volition apt find the result of the wide predetermination connected Nov. 5. A Fox News survey of Pennsylvania voters published precocious past period recovered Harris narrowly up of Trump by 2 points (50-48%) among registered voters, portion the contention is tied astatine 49% each among apt voters. 

Fox News Digital's Chris Pandolofo and Brooke Singman contributed to this report. 

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