Late-season Caribbean hurricane expected to hit Cuba this week

If it forms, Rafael would beryllium the 11th hurricane of the 2024 play and could onslaught occidental Cuba arsenic a Category 1 storm.

Miami, Florida, United States – A hurricane is expected to signifier successful the Caribbean and bring dense rainfall and mudslides to Cuba earlier heading into the lukewarm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the US National Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to fortify into a hurricane connected Monday arsenic it approaches Jamaica and could besides bring dense rainfall to the Florida Keys and parts of the southeastern US aboriginal successful the week, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

Jamaica and Cuba could person up to 230mm (9 inches) of rain, perchance causing flooding.

The authorities of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the capital, Havana, and provinces successful eastbound Cuba, including Pinar del Rio and Matanzas.

The tempest could exacerbate an acute vigor crisis successful Cuba. Parts of the land person experienced prolonged powerfulness outages successful caller weeks owed to decrepit infrastructure and a deficiency of substance for its oil-fired powerfulness stations.

Cuba is inactive recovering from Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall connected the eastbound extremity of the land 2 weeks agone with maximum sustained winds of astir 130km/h (80mph).

The caller upwind strategy was inactive lone a tropical slump aboriginal connected Monday and was located astir 310km (196 miles) southbound of Kingston, Jamaica. It had maximum sustained winds of 55km/h (35mph) and was moving northbound astatine 15km/h (9mph), the NHC said.

A tropical tempest forms erstwhile sustained winds scope 63km/h (39mph), and it becomes a hurricane erstwhile they scope 119km/h (74mph).

The tempest was expected to determination adjacent Jamaica precocious connected Monday and is expected to scope hurricane spot earlier it reaches occidental Cuba precocious connected Tuesday oregon aboriginal connected Wednesday.

Forecasters said the halfway of the hurricane is forecast to walk westbound of Florida portion adverse atmospheric conditions should forestall Rafael, the 18th named tempest of the 2024 hurricane season, from processing into a life-threatening upwind strategy arsenic it approaches the US seashore implicit the Gulf of Mexico.

This hurricane play has seen supra mean enactment with 10 hurricanes already, including 2 large ones – Helene and Milton – which deed Florida and North Carolina, causing wide demolition and sidesplitting much than 200 people.

Only 7 seasons connected grounds person had 11 Atlantic hurricanes by the archetypal week of November, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist astatine Colorado State University.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 has formed successful the Caribbean and is forecast to go a #hurricane by 6 November. If it does, it would beryllium the 11th of the 2024 Atlantic season. 7 seasons connected grounds person had 11+ Atlantic hurricanes by 6 Nov: 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020. pic.twitter.com/EXYqB5ZLPC

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 3, 2024

“It’s worthy noting that lone 4 hurricanes successful the modern grounds (since 1966) person been recorded successful the Gulf of Mexico successful November, truthful a hurricane present this precocious successful the play would beryllium an antithetic event,” noted Michael Lowry, a hurricane specializer successful Miami and writer of the Eye connected the Tropics blog.