Magic number Donald Trump needs to win each state revealed by top analyst – and why race couldn’t be tighter

DONALD Trump and Kamala Harris are cervix and cervix successful the combat for the White House - and a apical expert has revealed the magic fig that could triumph Trump the presidency.

The contention volition apt travel down to the 7 battleground states, wherever Trump needs an adjacent smaller fashionable ballot threshold than Harris to win.

In 2016, adept governmental expert David Wasserman correctly predicted the anticipation of Trump winning the predetermination without securing the fashionable vote.

Eight years later, Wasserman exclusively told The U.S. Sun that the Electoral College votes are anyone's crippled - but that Trump is successful a bully spot.

“Republican electoral assemblage vantage has diminished, owing to Democrats declining spot successful New York and California," Wasserman told The U.S. Sun's Acting Assistant Editor Chris Bradford.

"But Harris is connected the bubble of wherever she needs to beryllium to triumph the electoral college. It couldn’t beryllium tighter."

Read More connected the Election

Wasserman, the elder exertion astatine the Cook Political Report, said that aft Harris' palmy rollout and statement performances successful August and September, October became much of a "pitched battle."

Which brings america to Election Day - wherever Wasserman says Trump's magic fig is conscionable 47% of the fashionable ballot to triumph the Electoral College.

“Trump tin triumph the presidency with arsenic small arsenic 47% of the vote," helium estimated.

"46% was bully capable successful 2016, 47% was not successful 2020."

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump 306-232 successful the Electoral College. He had a four-point borderline successful the fashionable vote.

This clip around, the plaything states are location to a jackpot of 93 Electoral College votes - meaning whichever campaigner gets 270 oregon much retired of the 538 astatine involvement volition instrumentality the White House.

Wasserman explained the threshold is narrower this twelvemonth due to the fact that it's already much of a divided ballot.

“Keep successful mind, we inactive bash person RFK Jr and Cornel West connected ballots successful Michigan and Wisconsin. Jill Stein is connected each battleground authorities but Nevada," Wasserman explained.

"That lowers the candidates' threshold for triumph southbound of 50%."

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped retired of the statesmanlike contention successful August and endorsed Trump, but his sanction is inactive connected the ballot successful the cardinal plaything states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

"Harris needs to triumph the fashionable ballot by 2-3 points to triumph the Electoral College," Wasserman explained.

"Trump’s triumph fig is 47. Harris’ is 49."

The governmental adept said Harris and Trump's divided strategies erstwhile campaigning successful battleground states mightiness person made the quality successful the upcoming results.

He said that portion Harris relied connected a much "traditional strategy" of campaigning successful Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump took a "bank shot" by trying to triumph implicit large bluish states.

“Trump is going to California and New York to enactment the spotlight connected Democrats' governance of those states and marque the lawsuit to the remainder of the state that Kamala Harris volition crook America into San Francisco and LA oregon New York," helium said.

Throughout his campaign, Trump has often accused Harris of ruining California during her clip arsenic San Francisco's territory attorney.

He's slammed Harris' grounds arsenic a California authoritative and adjacent said that she "destroyed" San Francisco.

While Trump closed his run by attacking Harris and promising to hole the economy, Wasserman said that Harris' closing arguments weren't beardown either.

The expert said the vice president's shaming of Trump for his engagement successful the insurrection connected the capitol connected January 6, 2021, was a atrocious play arsenic she headed for the election.

"To plaything voters, January 6 is little a future-of-democracy issue, but much of a instrumentality and bid concern," Wasserman said.

WHAT UNDECIDED VOTERS WANT

He said Harris should person tried to assertion the precocious manus connected instrumentality and bid alternatively than informing voters astir "backsliding into authoritarianism" by electing Trump.

"That statement falls connected deaf ears," helium said, adding that the connection “resonates with Democrats, but it doesn’t triumph caller converts to the campaign."

"Undecided voters are adjacent much focused connected the outgo of surviving and inflation.

"They're little apt to beryllium basing their ballot connected termination oregon immigration," Wasserman said.

"Trump inactive has the borderline erstwhile it comes to handling the system – but she’s got to enactment the spotlight connected Trump which she’s trying to do."