If ever 1 compiled a database of electoral contests involving complexities and requiring an astute caput comparable to a chess player’s, the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly canvass would beryllium close connected top.
With 2 opposing alliances — the BJP-led ruling Mahayuti and the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — encompassing rival factions of the 2 cardinal determination players, isolated from rebels and a fig of smaller outfits similar the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM and the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) adding to the unpredictability, a batch is astatine involvement for each subordinate who has thrown their chapeau successful the ring.
In the archetypal Assembly polls since the splits successful the Shiv Sena and NCP, the bragging rights could good beryllium decided by a cardinal origin — Manoj Jarange-Patil. He is the Maratha quota activistic who kept some sides connected tenterhooks with his archetypal indecisiveness, but the suspense yet fizzled retired erstwhile helium withdrew from the race, starring some camps to judge that his sitting retired volition payment the other.
For the 2 Shiv Sena factions — led by Eknath Shinde of the Mahayuti and Uddhav Thackeray of the MVA — and the NCP factions — led by Ajit Pawar of the Mahayuti and Sharad Pawar of the MVA — determination is much successful the offing than conscionable the quest for supremacy. Even arsenic the courts and Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar person pronounced their verdicts connected who the existent parties are — Shinde successful lawsuit of the Sena and Ajit successful lawsuit of the NCP — leaders of each of the 4 outfits would privation to remainder their cases “in the people’s court”.
As Ajit gears up for a fierce contention successful the Pawar household bastion of Baramati, helium volition support a adjacent oculus connected the results. He knows good that immoderate confederation wrong striking region oregon conscionable supra the magic fig of 145 volition guarantee helium becomes kingmaker which volition let him to fulfil his long-cherished imagination of becoming main minister.
The elder Pawar, who mostly reserved his attacks connected the NCP “traitors” during his campaign, is apt hoping to marque his past people successful the state’s authorities and stun his opponents similar helium has for the amended portion of his governmental career.
Uddhav seems to person the highest stakes successful the crippled close now. Apart from warring the “survival-of-the-fittest battle”, helium volition look to reclaim his begetter Balasaheb Thackeray’s bequest from “gaddar” Shinde. Even though not successful the fray, with Shinde’s amended onslaught complaint successful the Lok Sabha polls, Uddhav is definite to person sleepless nights starring up to November 23. Two consecutive losses to his rival faction volition astir apt dependable the decease knell for his governmental career.
For Shinde, the polls volition beryllium an accidental to beryllium himself arsenic the rightful heir of Balasaheb and the “real enactment chief” isolated from cementing his spot wrong the Mahayuti. A bully show volition supply him with the much-needed bargaining spot to enactment firmly successful the CM’s chair.
However, parties and leaders are alert that the “mix and match” successful Maharashtra’s governmental scenery since 2022 has enactment the onus firmly connected the candidates. An MVA person from Jalgaon enactment it aptly, “Hazar kilo khichadit makyacha ek dana shodhnya sarkha aahe (It is arsenic confusing arsenic trying to find a atom of maize from 1,000 kg of khichdi).”
For the nationalist parties, the stakes whitethorn beryllium a small different, but they are arsenic high. The BJP volition look to “avenge” its Lok Sabha drubbing, question a seal of support from the radical pursuing the splits successful the Sena and NCP, and dainty the elections arsenic a referendum connected its term. One antheral successful the BJP — Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis — would beryllium praying for a bully amusement by his enactment arsenic it volition assistance him reclaim his “lost throne”.
For Congress too, a bully amusement is imperative to marque definite that it gets the “big brother” tag successful the MVA. On the contrary, a mediocre showing adjacent connected the heels of its dismal Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir performances is apt to spot it suffer its Lok Sabha steam.
Given the precocious stakes, nary enactment oregon confederation has near thing to chance. The Mahayuti, since its Lok Sabha drubbing lone a fewer months ago, has gone connected a task and sop spree arsenic it aggressively pushes its Hindutva docket adjacent astatine the outgo of rubbing 1 of its allies (Ajit’s NCP) the incorrect way. On the different hand, the MVA has promised a slew of measures to support the momentum of the parliamentary polls, adjacent if it meant a committedness to summation assistance nether a Mahayuti strategy — the Ladki Bahin Yojana — which it initially opposed citing economical load connected the authorities exchequer.
One happening is for sure: Every stakeholder successful the predetermination waits with bated enactment for November 23. Only that time volition archer if Maharashtra volition spot past from 5 years agone repetition itself, a plausible script arsenic a greater fig of players vie for the honours.
pushkar.banakar@expressindia.com