Namibia elections 2024: Who’s in the running and what’s at stake?

Amid a question of historical predetermination upsets successful Southern Africa, Namibians volition spell to the polls this week to ballot successful statesmanlike and parliamentary elections acceptable to beryllium the astir competitory and tightly contested yet.

The ballot connected Wednesday comes aft independence-era liberation parties that agelong held onto powerfulness were kicked retired successful Botswana and crippled successful South Africa earlier this year. In Mozambique, the governing Frelimo party’s caller triumph has led to ongoing deadly protests amid allegations of electoral manipulation.

A newcomer enactment is acceptable to further loosen the grip of the governing SWAPO (South West Africa People’s Organisation) Party of Namibia. The enactment has governed the state since independency from apartheid South Africa successful 1990.

Increasing dissatisfaction among the younker could mean that the enactment risks losing the presidency and parliamentary bulk for the archetypal time. Its ballot stock has declined rapidly implicit the past 2 elections.

However, analysts accidental that though SWAPO faces the aforesaid issues arsenic its counterparts successful neighbouring countries, the Namibian absorption lacks coordination.

“Opposition parties are not good organised present similar successful South Africa oregon Botswana. That mightiness spot SWAPO get disconnected the hook and get connected way to triumph parliament,” Graham Hopwood, the enforcement manager of the Windhoek-based Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), told Al Jazeera.

Namibia is immense but with conscionable 3 cardinal people, making it 1 of the most-sparsely populated countries successful Africa. Its harsh, arid situation is mostly unsuitable for living. The state is location to the Kalahari and Namib deserts. Its superior metropolis is Windhoek.

The November 27 ballot volition beryllium the seventh since independence. Some 1.45 cardinal radical are registered to vote.

Here’s each you request to cognize astir who is moving and what’s astatine stake:

How volition radical vote?

• Some 1.45 cardinal eligible voters volition prime the president and members of the National Assembly.
• Twenty-one parties are competing for 96 parliament seats. There are 15 statesmanlike candidates.
• Presidential candidates are required to triumph much than 50 percent of the ballot to unafraid the apical job.
• If nary campaigner wins the bulk vote, the 2 highest-polling candidates volition look disconnected successful a 2nd predetermination round. This has ne'er happened successful Namibia.

Who is moving for president?

Namibia’s Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, centre, of the governing SWAPO Party attends an predetermination rally successful Windhoek, Namibia, November 24, 2024 [Esther Mbathera/AP]

Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (72): She is the governing SWAPO Party’s archetypal pistillate statesmanlike campaigner and the favourite to triumph the election, though analysts accidental she faces beardown competition. If she wins, she volition go Namibia’s archetypal pistillate president.

Nandi-Ndaitwah was among a big of SWAPO members actively progressive successful the country’s combat for independency successful exile. She returned from the United Kingdom to articulation parliament successful 1990 and went connected to service arsenic curate with respective portfolios implicit the years. The precocious President Hage Geingob, who died of crab in February, picked Nandi-Ndaitwah arsenic lawman premier curate and had selected her arsenic his successor earlier his passing.

Despite SWAPO’s incumbency, the person faces respective hurdles, analysts say. There is fashionable dissatisfaction with the enactment successful a highly unequal state wherever lodging and employment stay retired of grasp for many, and wherever corruption is rife. Young people, successful particular, don’t judge successful SWAPO’s continued power.

While Geingob received much than 80 percent of the votes successful 2014, his 2019 stock dropped to 56 percent. SWAPO likewise mislaid a two-thirds bulk successful parliament successful 2019. It was the archetypal clip that happened since 1994.

“The allure of the liberation conflict is fading for SWAPO, due to the fact that galore young radical can’t retrieve it, oregon were calved afterwards,” Hopwood of the IPPR said. Also untested is the appetite among Namibia’s antheral voters for a pistillate president, the expert added.

Namibia is 1 of Africa’s astir gender-equal countries. Nearly fractional of the seats successful parliament are held by women, and Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila is female. However, the premier curate is appointed, portion this would beryllium the archetypal clip voters would beryllium electing a pistillate leader.

Still, Hopwood added, Nandi-Ndaitwah is popularly seen arsenic not corrupt, dissimilar immoderate of her SWAPO counterparts.

In a peculiar ballot league connected November 12, held for immoderate 16,300 people, including those similar information officials who cannot formed ballots connected November 27, the person led the different candidates with 60 percent of the vote.

A antheral walks past a run poster of the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) party’s statesmanlike candidate, Panduleni Itula, successful Windhoek, connected November 25, 2024 [Simon Maina/AFP]

Panduleni Itula (67): Itula was erstwhile a SWAPO younker person earlier his exile to the UK successful the 1970s. There, helium studied and practised arsenic a dentist for much than 30 years, and returned to Namibia successful 2013.

In the 2019 elections, Itula shook up the governmental scenery erstwhile helium ran arsenic an autarkic campaigner against precocious President Geingob, overmuch to the choler of the SWAPO leadership. Itula managed to clinch a important 29 percent of the vote. It was not capable to artifact Geingob’s second-term plans, but it was the champion immoderate challenger had done against the governing party.

Itula criticises the SWAPO authorities for what helium describes arsenic endemic corruption and wide inefficiency successful Namibia. He was expelled from SWAPO successful 2020.

Now, helium is backmost nether his Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) party. He remains popular, particularly among Namibia’s young. Itula has promised economical prosperity for the youth, and wants to trim firm taxes truthful much overseas companies tin determination to the country.

If young radical crook retired astatine the polls, Itula could endanger SWAPO’s chances, arsenic the person appeals to the youth, expert Hopwood said. The Namibian Electoral Commission says 91 percent of eligible voters person registered to vote, with galore caller voters being nether 30.

“SWAPO faces a superior situation from Dr Itula and they’ll beryllium disquieted up of the vote,” Hopwood said.

McHenry Venaani (47): He is the person of the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), Namibia’s largest absorption party. Although the enactment holds 16 retired of 96 seats successful parliament, the astir aft SWAPO, Venaani lone managed to clinch 5 percent of the votes successful 2019 erstwhile helium ran for president.

Bernadus Swartbooi (47): He leads the Landless People’s Movement (LPM) which campaigns for onshore redistribution to Namibians whose onshore was dispossessed by German settlers successful the 1900s. The LPM has 4 seats successful parliament. In 2019, Swartbooi, formerly of SWAPO, won 3 percent of the vote.

Job Amupanda (37): The assemblage prof leads the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) question which started disconnected arsenic an advocacy group. The entity focuses connected onshore betterment programmes arsenic well, and advocates for much assertive approaches, specified arsenic forceful takeovers of foreign-owned land.

Many absentee landowners are of German and South African descent, and unrecorded permanently successful South Africa, Germany oregon different European countries.

Election posters bent connected poles successful Windhoek, Namibia, November 24, 2024 [Esther Mbathera/AP]

What are the cardinal issues?

Economy and inequality: Although a middle-income state affluent successful uranium and diamonds, Namibia’s wealthiness is unevenly distributed, dating backmost to a bequest of apartheid and violent colonialism. It is the 2nd astir unequal state successful the satellite aft South Africa.

Poverty levels are high, with much than 64 percent of the colonisation surviving beneath $5.50 regular according to the World Bank. The bulk Black Namibian colonisation and number taste groups are particularly astatine a disadvantage.

A punishing drought, meanwhile, is ravaging the country’s nutrient production. It is the worst successful a century, according to the World Food Programme. Some 48 percent of the colonisation request urgent nutrient assistance, and 17 percent of children nether 5 are stunted.

Unemployment: About 43 percent of Namibia’s younker are unemployed, 1 of the highest rates connected the continent, according to authoritative numbers past released successful 2016. Nandi-Ndaitwah of SWAPO has pledged to walk astir 85 cardinal Namibian dollars ($4.7bn) implicit the adjacent 5 years to make much than 500,000 jobs, but determination are questions astir however the funds volition beryllium sourced.

The IPC’s Itula, meanwhile, wants to liberalise the system and let much overseas companies in.

A vendor grills nutrient wrong a wholesale marketplace successful Windhoek connected November 25, 2024 [Simon Maina/AFP]

Corruption: Successive SWAPO governments are accused of deep-rooted corruption. The fish-rot ungraded that broke successful 2019 inactive causes a stench. Fishing is lucrative successful Namibia and accounts for 20 percent of export revenue.

Several apical authorities officials, including precocious President Geingob, were implicated aft WikiLeaks released files revealing however officials ran schemes to power invaluable sportfishing quotas earlier diverting them to an Iceland institution for kickbacks. Six people, including 2 ministers from SWAPO, were jailed.

Although Vice President Nandi-Nanditwah is not implicated, SWAPO has travel nether occurrence for allowing immoderate enactment members who are inactive being investigated to run for her up of the election, similar SWAPO’s Youth League Secretary Ephraim Nekongo.

Housing situation and onshore reform: The inequality spills implicit into onshore and spot ownership. Namibia urgently needs much than fractional a cardinal homes to lick a terrible lodging shortage, but astir of the colonisation would not suffice for a owe due to the fact that of poorness and precocious spot prices, according to the World Economic Forum. Close to fractional a cardinal radical unrecorded successful shacks and informal lodging units successful Windhoek.

Leftist parties similar the Affirmative Repositioning question person promised to conception 300,000 houses implicit 5 years. Meanwhile, Itula’s IPC says it volition state a authorities of exigency connected housing.

A land betterment programme, which aimed to bargain backmost onshore from mostly achromatic workplace owners to resettle poorer Namibians, has not tally smoothly. Farmers are reluctant to merchantability land, oregon merchantability it astatine inflated prices, making it hard for the authorities to get capable onshore for resettlement purposes.

Parties similar the AR person taken what analysts telephone a “radical position”, promising to forcibly reclaim immoderate 1.4 cardinal hectares (3,500,000) acres of onshore from foreigners and absentee landlords. The PDM has besides promised to supply escaped onshore plots to the people.

What else?

Polls connected Wednesday volition adjacent astatine 9pm CAT (19:00 GMT).

Results could beryllium announced connected the pursuing day, November 28.

However, with the electoral committee reverting to ballot papers, the results mightiness instrumentality a fewer much days to emerge. Numerous ballot tallying problems successful the 2019 elections marred the usage of physics paper readers and prompted the switch.

Analysts accidental Wednesday’s ballot is apt to beryllium peaceful arsenic elections person been successful the past. However, immoderate experts interest that delayed results could effect successful allegations of fraud oregon adjacent pockets of violence, arsenic was seen successful Mozambique.