Nearly 1m workers in job market have been 'lost' due to unreliable official data

The Resolution Foundation has accused the Office for National Statistics of misrepresenting trends successful the jobs assemblage done inaccurate figures from its Labour Force Survey

Nearly a cardinal workers successful the UK's occupation marketplace person been "lost" owed to inaccurate and unreliable authoritative data, starring to imaginable overestimations of unemployment and inactivity rates, according to claims by a deliberation tank.

The Resolution Foundation has accused the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of misrepresenting trends successful the occupation assemblage done its Labour Force Survey (LFS), which they reason has underestimated employment maturation by 930,000 workers since 2019.

The ONS has antecedently expressed concerns astir the accuracy of its main LFS information owed to mediocre survey effect rates since the pandemic began, causing economists to go progressively sceptical astir the statistics. The Resolution Foundation has developed its ain alternate estimation of UK employment, utilizing HM Revenue and Customs payroll and self-employment data, arsenic good arsenic the latest ONS colonisation data.

They suggest that the existent employment complaint could beryllium astir 76%, alternatively than the authoritative complaint of astir 75% reported by the ONS. This could besides interaction the existent estimated unemployment complaint of 4.3% for the 3rd quarter, arsenic good arsenic the level of workforce inactivity, which ONS information shows has been connected the emergence successful caller years.

Adam Corlett, main economist astatine the Resolution Foundation, criticised authoritative readings of the labour market: "Official statistic person misrepresented what has happened successful the UK labour marketplace since the pandemic, and near policymakers successful the acheronian by coating an overly pessimistic representation of our labour market.

"The ONS Labour Force Survey appears to person ‘lost’ astir a cardinal workers implicit the past fewer years compared to amended sources. This has led to authoritative information underestimating people’s chances of having a job, overstating the standard of Britain’s economical inactivity challenge, and apt overestimating productivity growth."

The Resolution Foundation warned that this could marque achieving authorities ambitions much challenging: "The Government’s people to scope an 80% employment complaint volition beryllium marred by poor-quality data", hindering the crafting of effectual policies.

The organisation pointed retired issues with the ONS Labour Force Survey's (LFS) methodology: It claims that the effect complaint to the ONS’s jobs survey has slumped to conscionable 13% from 39% betwixt 2019 and 2023. The diminution indicates that immoderate colonisation groups are little apt to respond, and determination are difficulties capturing the emergence of workers from extracurricular the European Union.

The ONS said it was alert of issues with the LFS information and has been placing much value connected different statistics, specified arsenic the much timely payroll information from HMRC. It besides stressed that caller improvements to summation effect rates person seen the fig of interviews carried retired emergence from 44,238 to 59,139.

An ONS spokesperson stated: "We person been wide for immoderate clip that we judge the trends successful employees produced from the HMRC taxation accusation and our ain abstracted survey of employers are apt to beryllium coating a much close representation than that presently presented by the LFS.

"Our ongoing enactment to amended the LFS estimates by expanding the sample, reintroducing face-to-face interviews, expanding incentives for those taking portion and reweighting the information utilizing the latest colonisation accusation volition each assistance to amended the prime of the survey."

The ONS added that it was collaborating with outer experts to find if immoderate further measures were necessary. This announcement coincides with the Resolution Foundation's assignment of Ruth Curtice, erstwhile Treasury manager of policy, arsenic its caller main executive, effectual January 20.