New Jersey battleground House district poll finds tight race as GOP seeks to retain seat

A battleground U.S. House is locked successful a choky contention arsenic the first-term Republican incumbent fights to support the spot successful New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, according to a caller poll. 

Rep. Tom Kean, Jr., R-N.J., maintains an vantage among voters connected respective cardinal issues, including economical maturation and jobs, crime, migration and inflation. But connected termination and reproductive policy, Democrat challenger Sue Altman, a erstwhile person of the state’s progressive Working Families Alliance, has the biggest edge, according to the caller Monmouth University Poll released connected Tuesday. 

The canvass recovered 47% of voters spot Kean connected economical maturation and jobs, compared to 38% who favour Altman; and 47% spot the Republican incumbent's handling of crime, portion 38% spot the Democratic challenger. On immigration, 40% similar Kean compared to the 33% who spot Altman, and connected inflation, the GOP congressman is preferred by 41% of voters compared to 37% who spot Altman more. 

The canvass recovered 47% spot Altman connected termination and reproductive policy, portion conscionable 27% spot Kean. Despite the beardown advantage, conscionable 1 successful 4 voters, oregon 26%, said termination and reproductive argumentation was their apical contented erstwhile deciding who to ballot for successful the U.S. House spot among the six polled. The canvass recovered 28% listed ostentation arsenic their astir important issue, 19% cited immigration, and 16% said economical growth. 

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Sue Altman speaks astatine a nationalist forum, Aug. 23, 2016, successful Bordentown, N.J., left, and Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J., speaks during a quality league successful Ukraine, April 22, 2024.  (AP Photo)

New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District is among respective seats encircling New York City that could find who controls the House. GOP incumbents who won successful 2022 are present warring for 2nd terms.

Fox News powerfulness rankings shows the district leans Republican.

"Altman’s vantage connected termination acold surpasses the borderline Kean has connected immoderate different issue. But that’s conscionable 1 portion of the equation," Patrick Murray, manager of the autarkic Monmouth University Polling Institute, said successful a statement. "The different portion is however galore voters are really motivated by this issue." 

The canvass recovered that 46% of voters successful the territory supported Kean – 31% of those respondents said they'd decidedly and 15% said they'd astir apt ballot for the GOP incumbent. That compares to the 44% who enactment Altman, including the 32% who decidedly and 12% who said they'd astir apt pick the Democrat. 

Rep. Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J., during the property league connected April 22, 2024, successful Kyiv, Ukraine during a bipartisan legislature delegation's authoritative visit.  (Vitalii Nosach/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

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In the last weeks of the contest, some candidates person an accidental to tribunal caller votes, arsenic the canvass recovered 37% of respondents accidental they volition decidedly not ballot for Kean and 38% volition decidedly not ballot for Altman. 

"The level of enactment for each campaigner whitethorn beryllium adjacent close now, but determination is much than capable country for 1 of them to interruption away," Murray said. "There is simply a sizable undecided ballot and some candidates person comparatively precocious ceilings for their imaginable ballot share." 

Sue Altman attends the Green New Deal Network Day of Action rally connected Aug. 19, 2021, successful Atlantic City, New Jersey.  (Dave Kotinsky/Getty Images for Green New Deal Network)

Among voters polled, 49% viewed Kean arsenic successful sync with the district's residents, portion 33% considered him retired of touch. For Altman, 35% saw her arsenic successful enactment with the district, portion 43% saw her retired of sync. 

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"Which messages volition truly motivate your base? Altman’s across-the-board vantage connected termination is keeping her competitive. But Kean counters that with spot among voters without a assemblage grade arsenic good arsenic an borderline among achromatic college-educated men who are much acrophobic astir the system than different issues," Murray said, adding, "Altman is doing good among number voters successful this district, but determination is little wide information to get retired and ballot this year. On apical of that, they don’t spot overmuch quality betwixt the 2 House candidates connected the contented that matters astir to them."