North Korea eyes Russian military assistance in exchange for Ukraine troop deployment, say experts

washington — 

North Korea is apt anticipating Russian method assistance to cleanable its atomic and rocket programs successful speech for sending its troops to enactment Russia successful the Ukraine war, U.S. experts say.

On Wednesday, the U.S. authorities confirmed for the archetypal clip the beingness of astatine slightest 3,000 North Korean troops successful Russia. Last Friday, South Korea's quality bureau said North Korea had sent 1,500 peculiar forces troops to Russia for grooming and apt deployment for combat successful the warfare successful Ukraine.

Seoul has expressed sedate concerns astir the development.

"North Korea volition expect a generous payoff from Moscow successful instrumentality for its unit contribution," Hwang Joon-kook, South Korean ambassador to the United Nations, said Monday astatine a United Nations Security Council Briefing connected Ukraine. "It could beryllium either subject oregon fiscal assistance; it could beryllium atomic weapons-related technology."

Weapons upgrades

North Korea has precocious been much unfastened astir showing its atomic and rocket ambitions. State media outlets past period released photos showing person Kim Jong Un visiting what they said was a uranium enrichment facility.

The Kim authorities has exported dozens of ballistic missiles and much than 18,000 containers of munitions and munitions-related worldly to Russia since its penetration of Ukraine, according to the U.S. State Department.

Bruce Bennett, a elder defence expert astatine the Rand Corporation, told VOA Korean connected Wednesday that Kim Jong Un is present successful a presumption wherever helium tin "leverage Russia to get overmuch more" by deploying his ain soldiers to the Ukraine war.

"As they were doing their atomic tests, they would person discovered that immoderate things didn't work," Bennett said. "I deliberation Kim has got a batch of exertion helium would similar to get from Russia."

Robert Peters, probe chap for atomic deterrence and rocket defence astatine the Heritage Foundation, said sending successful North Korean troops "could beryllium a token of goodwill connected the portion of Kim," and Kim's anticipation would beryllium that "the quid pro quo is Russian method assistance."

"The eventual extremity for Kim is simply a revitalized confederation with Russia that helps North Korea drawback up its rocket programme and its atomic programme with those successful the West," Peters told VOA Korean Tuesday connected the phone. "I deliberation that's portion of his game."

Peters added that Kim could inquire Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply method assistance for effectual miniaturization of atomic warheads that could spell connected the extremity of intercontinental ballistic missiles, oregon ICBMs, targeting the United States.

Sung-Yoon Lee, a chap with the Wilson Center's Indo-Pacific Program, told VOA Korean successful an email that helium believes Russia apt promised "to supply Pyongyang with delicate atomic exertion similar nuclear-powered submarines, subject satellites, and ICBM reentry into the earth's atmosphere" successful instrumentality for North Korea sending troops to the warfare successful Ukraine.

Economic benefits

Another payment for North Korea is that its troops mightiness beryllium paid successful hard currency that tin beryllium exchanged internationally.

"The fiscal benefits from this archetypal deployment whitethorn look comparatively small, but they are comparatively important for North Korea," Troy Stangarone, manager of the Center for Korean History and Public Policy astatine Wilson Center, told VOA Korean via email Thursday.

"If Russia is compensating North Korea astatine the aforesaid complaint arsenic caller Russian recruits, we could expect Pyongyang to gain a small little than $10 cardinal a period from the 3,000 troops that are reported to person already been deployed."

Stangarone says that magnitude would beryllium adjacent to astir 40% of North Korea's ineligible exports to China implicit the people of a afloat year. China is North Korea's main trading partner, with immoderate studies saying China makes up arsenic overmuch arsenic 95% of North Korea's full trade.

Robert Abrams, a retired U.S. Army four-star wide who served arsenic commandant of U.S. Forces Korea from 2018 to 2021, said the deployment of North Korean soldiers volition not beryllium a subject crippled changer for Russia. But, helium said, it shows "the extent of committedness by Kim Jong Un to beryllium a strategical spouse of Russia."

"Russia is losing 10,000 soldiers astir each 10 days, truthful this deployment of 10,000 North Korean soldiers volition not noticeably alteration the outcome," Abrams told VOA Korean via email Wednesday.

"However, this deployment of North Korean soldiers has important symbolism for some North Korea and Russia; this is an evident result of the caller North Korea-Russia broad strategical concern agreement."

Putin and Kim signed their concern pact successful June, vowing to situation the U.S.-led satellite order.

The caller pact mandates Russia and North Korea to instantly supply subject assistance utilizing each disposable means if either of them is attacked by a 3rd country.

Putin did not contradict the beingness of North Korean soldiers successful Russia during a Thursday property league astatine the BRICS acme successful the Russian metropolis of Kazan.

"We person ne'er doubted astatine each that the North Korean enactment takes our agreements seriously," Putin said. "What and however we volition bash wrong the model of this nonfiction [of the agreement] is our business."