One-tenth of Maharashtra seats SC-reserved, with BJP, allies sliding since 2014

In the 2014 Assembly polls, which saw the BJP look arsenic the azygous largest enactment and state with the past undivided Shiv Sena to signifier the government, the saffron enactment led successful the SC seats. The BJP won 15 of the 29 reserved seats, followed by the Shiv Sena astatine nine. The Congress and past agreed Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) won conscionable 2 and 3 SC seats, respectively. Incidentally, the BJP did not person a pre-poll confederation with the Shiv Sena, and hence went head-to-head with its eventual state successful galore seats.

[CHART: Assembly canvass results successful SC-reserved seats]

It was a beardown show for the BJP, which won each but 1 of its SC-reserved seats by margins implicit 10,000 votes. The Congress-NCP confederation was the runner-up successful 13 seats and placed 3rd oregon worse successful 11 seats, wherever mostly the BJP, Shiv Sena and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) were the runners-up.

In presumption of ballot stock successful the SC seats, the BJP was acold up of its rivals astatine 28.67%, followed by the Shiv Sena astatine 20.38%, the Congress astatine 16.79% and the NCP astatine 14.73%.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, allies BJP and Shiv Sena won 2 SC seats each, with Independent Navneet Ravi Rana, who joined the BJP earlier this year, winning the past reserved seat. This was much oregon little the aforesaid arsenic the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, erstwhile the BJP-Shiv Sena harvester had won each the 5 SC seats.

But successful the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena descent was more, winning conscionable 9 and 5 SC seats, respectively, arsenic the Congress and NCP improved to 7 and six seats, respectively. The 2 remaining seats were won by Independents.

Of the six seats that were decided by margins little than 10,000 votes, the BJP won four, and the Congress and NCP 1 each. The BJP was besides the runner-up successful the astir seats astatine eight, followed by the Shiv Sena successful seven, the Congress successful 5 and the NCP successful three. Notably, the champion outings for the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), led by B R Ambedkar’s grandson Prakash Ambedkar, were successful 2 seats wherever it finished arsenic the runner-up down the BJP.

Between 2014 and 2019, voters’ preferences remained unchanged successful 17 SC seats that elected the aforesaid enactment again. But the remaining 12 seats elected a caller enactment compared to 2014. The Congress and NCP were capable to flip 5 and 4 seats, respectively, won by the BJP oregon Shiv Sena successful 2014, portion the BJP was capable to flip 1 NCP seat. Two Independents besides won seats wherever the BJP had emerged victorious successful 2014.

In presumption of ballot shares successful SC seats that year, the BJP was inactive connected apical astatine 25.12% contempt declining by 3.55% points from 2014. The NCP and Congress some improved, to 17.37% and 17.21%, respectively, with the Shiv Sena dropping to 15.53%.

By the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the authorities had undergone a large governmental realignment with the splits successful the Shiv Sena successful 2022 and the NCP successful 2023, and the emergence of the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and the ruling Mahayuti alliances. While Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP factions joined the Mahayuti, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) joined the MVA.

In this caller landscape, the BJP-led Mahayuti suffered large reversals crossed the authorities and successful the SC seats successful peculiar successful the Lok Sabha polls this year. The MVA was capable to flip each 5 SC-reserved seats from 2014, reducing the Mahayuti to zero seats. While the Congress won 4 SC seats, the Sena (UBT) won one, with the BJP finishing arsenic the runner-up successful 3 seats and Shinde’s Sena successful two. The MVA parties won these seats comfortably with margins exceeding 4 lakh votes successful 4 of the 5 SC-reserved Lok Sabha seats.

Breaking these Lok Sabha results down to the Assembly conception level – each parliamentary constituency contains respective Assembly seats – shows that the Congress led successful 12 segments, followed by the Shine Sena successful six, the Sena (UBT) successful five, the BJP successful four, and the NCP (SP) and an Independent successful 1 each. Combined, the MVA’s tally successful the SC-reserved segments stood astatine 18, portion the Mahayuti managed 10, with the past conception going to an Independent.