Ottawa’s immigration cuts will chop 1.7% off GDP in 3 years: PBO

Canada’s program to trim the fig of immigrants implicit the adjacent 3 years volition effect successful a 1.7 per cent driblet successful the country’s gross home merchandise  (GDP) by 2027, according to the national fiscal watchdog.

The report from the parliamentary fund officer (PBO), Yves Giroux, connected Thursday besides said that new migration targets released by the national authorities past fall volition slash the country’s colonisation by 3.2 per cent oregon 1.4 cardinal radical implicit the adjacent 3 years.

The PBO study comes days aft Statistics Canada reported this week that Canada’s colonisation could scope up to 80 cardinal successful 50 years, with migratory summation a “key operator of colonisation growth.”

The PBO study said that the national government’s caller people to trim migration levels would pb to 1.3 cardinal less hours worked successful 2027, resulting successful the driblet successful the existent GDP.

“However, fixed the sizeable colonisation shock, existent GDP per capita would beryllium 1.4 per cent higher successful 2027 nether the 2025-2027 [Immigration Levels Plan],” the study said.

“Overall, we estimation that the caller migration targets would trim nominal GDP — the broadest measurement of the authorities taxation basal — by 37 cardinal [dollars] connected mean implicit the adjacent 3 years.”

Canada’s system continued to turn past year, with StatCan’s latest report showing existent gross home merchandise rising by 1 per cent successful the 3rd 4th of 2024.

Trending Now

Canada’s population, which has been rapidly increasing owed to accrued immigration, currently stands astatine 41.59 million, arsenic of Thursday.

In an effort to frost colonisation growth, the national authorities announced successful October its program to trim the fig of caller imperishable residents to the state by 21 per cent from 500,000 to 395,000 successful 2025.

According to the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, this fig is expected to autumn further to 380,000 by 2026 and 365,000 by 2027.

The PBO study said that the “large simplification successful planetary migration results successful a comparably older full population” since immigrants and non-permanent residents are typically younger.

“The reduced labour proviso raises wages by 0.6 per cent connected mean betwixt 2025 and 2027. However, implicit the aforesaid period, the smaller colonisation reduces full household depletion by 2.0 per cent connected average,” the watchdog said.

Ottawa’s migration program is besides looking to trim the fig of impermanent residents, including planetary students and impermanent overseas workers, to 5 per cent of the colonisation by the extremity of adjacent year.

With that target, the national authorities estimates that Canada’s impermanent colonisation volition diminution by astir 909,002 radical betwixt 2025 and 2027.