Washington, DC – Election Day is yet here.
Polls person opened for the 2024 United States election, a nationalist ballot that volition determine not lone the adjacent president of the state but besides the constitution of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Tuesday caps a mad-dash stretch of campaigning that saw Democratic campaigner Kamala Harris and her Republican challenger Donald Trump crisscrossing the state successful hopes of shoring up voters.
For weeks, polls person shown a remarkably choky race, with nary campaigner having the borderline going into Election Day.
Whatever the result of the vote, the effect volition specify US authorities and argumentation for the adjacent 4 years. It volition besides beryllium historical arsenic voters volition either elite the archetypal pistillate president successful Harris oregon the archetypal convicted felon successful Trump.
In the last sprint of the race, some candidates person laid retired vastly antithetic visions for the country’s future. They person besides staked retired divergent positions connected key issues similar the economy, immigration, women’s rights and democracy.
Harris has pledged to “turn the page” connected what she calls Trump’s divisive rhetoric. She has besides positioned herself arsenic a “new generation” person who volition boost the mediate class, support women’s rights and support the integrity of US institutions astatine location and abroad.
Nevertheless, she has faced regular protests implicit her enactment for Israel’s warfare successful Gaza and Lebanon.
Trump, meanwhile, has promised a instrumentality to a US “golden age”. To bash that, helium has sketched a program to assistance economical regulations, task US spot overseas and ace down connected migrants – a enactment of onslaught that regularly dips into racist tropes.
But portion the candidates’ platforms person starkly contrasted successful some substance and tone, they overlap connected 1 lofty theme: that the result of this year’s ballot is pivotal.
Trump has dubbed the 2024 contention “the astir important” 1 the state has ever seen, portion Harris says it is the “most consequential” of voters’ lifetimes.
Both candidates spent the last 24 hours up of Election Day busily campaigning successful cardinal states.
“With your ballot tomorrow, we tin hole each azygous occupation our state faces and pb America – indeed, the satellite – to caller heights of glory,” said Trump arsenic helium delivered his closing transportation astatine the last rally of his run successful the aboriginal hours of the greeting successful Grand Rapids, successful the plaything authorities of Michigan.
Harris said “the momentum is connected our side” arsenic she signed disconnected successful Philadelphia.
“We indispensable decorativeness strong,” the Democrat campaigner declared. “Make nary mistake, we volition win.”
Record aboriginal voting
Election Day is the culmination of weeks of aboriginal voting successful immoderate locations. Several states began aboriginal voting – whether by message oregon successful idiosyncratic – arsenic acold backmost arsenic September.
Nearly 81 million voters already formed their ballot earlier Election Day, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
That is much than fractional of the 158.4 cardinal (PDF) full votes formed successful the 2020 statesmanlike predetermination – and a motion of grounds turnout this twelvemonth for aboriginal voting successful immoderate parts of the country.
Election Day volition yet uncover not conscionable which campaigner comes retired connected top, but the afloat grade of the changing demographics of the US electorate.
The archetypal voting tract technically opened close aft Monday midnight Eastern clip (05:00 GMT, Tuesday) successful the tiny New Hampshire municipality of Dixville Notch. The adjacent slate opened astatine 5am ET (10:00 GMT) successful Vermont.
Other polling sites volition unfastened arsenic greeting breaks crossed the six clip zones that screen the 50 US states.
Once the polls adjacent successful the evening, the results whitethorn instrumentality hours or days to beryllium tabulated. States cannot statesman reporting their ballot counts until polls close.
Results volition commencement to trickle successful by astir 6pm ET (23:00 GMT) erstwhile the archetypal polls adjacent successful states similar Indiana and Kentucky.
The past polls volition adjacent successful the states farthest west, Alaska and Hawaii, astir Tuesday midnight ET (05:00 GMT, Wednesday).
After that, the timing of the results volition travel down to idiosyncratic states, arsenic the US does not person a centralised predetermination system. Each authorities is liable for tallying its ballots. The tighter the margins, the longer that process whitethorn take.
All eyes volition beryllium connected 7 key states that are apt to determine the outcome: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.
In the US, the statesmanlike predetermination is decided not by the fashionable ballot but by a weighted strategy called the Electoral College.
Under the system, each authorities is worthy a definite fig of Electoral College votes, adjacent to the fig of senators and representatives successful Congress each authorities has.
For example, the plaything authorities of North Carolina has 14 representatives successful Congress based connected its colonisation size. Two senators correspond each state, bringing the full fig of Electoral College votes for North Carolina to 16.
The result of the statesmanlike contention successful a fixed authorities determines which campaigner receives that state’s Electoral College votes.
All but 2 states person a winner-takes-all system: if a campaigner wins the state, adjacent by a tiny margin, they get each its Electoral College votes.
There are 538 Electoral College votes successful total, dispersed crossed the US. Whoever passes the threshold of 270 wins the race.
Since definite states consistently thin Republican oregon Democrat, Harris is apt to triumph 226 Electoral College votes easily, and Trump is expected to transportation 219 without issue. Beyond that, Harris has 20 paths to victory and Trump 21.
Al Jazeera volition trust connected The Associated Press quality bureau to find who has won each authorities and, eventually, the wide election. The AP does not contented projections. It declares the effect of a contention lone erstwhile a victor emerges and nary different result is possible.
History-making race
This year’s ballot volition reason an predetermination play that repeatedly saw historical upheavals.
Donald Trump, 78, has go the cardinal fig successful the Republican Party and has led a question that has sown uncertainty successful the US predetermination process.
Trump archetypal entered the White House successful 2016 aft a astonishment triumph implicit Democrat Hillary Clinton. But helium fell abbreviated successful his re-election bid successful 2020, erstwhile Joe Biden bested him astatine the ballot box.
The Republican leader, however, ne'er conceded decision and alternatively claimed that wide elector fraud outgo him the race, an unsubstantiated assertion.
Critics accidental since his 2020 defeat, Trump has ne'er truly stopped campaigning, laying the groundwork for his present-day bid. He officially announced helium would question re-election successful 2022 astatine his Mar-a-Lago edifice successful Florida.
But his run has, astatine times, been overshadowed by historical tribunal cases. Trump is the archetypal president, past oregon present, to look transgression charges.
Four abstracted indictments person been issued against him: 1 for withholding classified documents, 1 for falsifying concern records and 2 for efforts to overturn the 2020 predetermination results.
In the concern records lawsuit successful New York, Trump was recovered blameworthy connected 34 felony counts. But alternatively than dampen his re-election prospects, his ineligible troubles person mostly energised his base, according to polls.
Trump has pleaded not blameworthy to each the charges against him and has called the indictments grounds of a coordinated “witch-hunt” designed to derail his statesmanlike bid.
But helium was not the lone campaigner facing historical hurdles arsenic helium raced for the White House.
His Democratic rival Harris was not adjacent a campaigner until astir 3 months ago. Initially, successful April 2023, President Biden announced plans to tally for re-election.
He cruised done the Democratic superior season, moving mostly unopposed successful the state-level contests. But concerns astir the 81-year-old’s property and quality began to equine arsenic helium deed the run trail.
A peculiar counsel study released successful February, for instance, said Biden “did not remember, adjacent wrong respective years, erstwhile his lad Beau died” – thing the president aboriginal denied. And Biden made respective high-profile gaffes, calling Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi the “president of Mexico”.
The concerns implicit Biden crescendoed aft a stumbling statement show successful June, wherever the president seemed to way disconnected mid-thought.
By July, Biden had abruptly dropped out of the race, and Democrats rapidly coalesced astir his vice president, Harris.
By aboriginal August, capable Democratic delegates had sided with Harris successful a virtual ballot for her to beryllium named the party’s nominee for the presidency.
But it was an unorthodox process: ne'er earlier had an incumbent president dropped retired truthful precocious successful a race, and ne'er successful caller past had a large enactment nominee bypassed the accepted superior process.
The predetermination whitethorn inactive interruption caller ground. In the charged governmental climate, fears of carnal threats to polling sites person surged similar ne'er before.
And aft 4 years of Trump claiming that the 2020 predetermination had been stolen, observers person warned helium and his allies could situation the 2024 contention if the results bash not spell his way.
That means the unreality of uncertainty that has hung implicit US authorities for months whitethorn not dissipate anytime soon.