Pollster Nate Silver says 'gut' tells him Trump will win election

While Pollster Nate Silver revealed past period that he'd ballot for Vice President Kamala Harris connected November 5, his "gut" is telling him that erstwhile President Trump volition win.

Silver acceptable the country successful his caller sentiment portion by noting that respective battleground states person Trump and Harris neck-and-neck. But those numbers don't look to fulfill observers, who helium said often inquire him for a consecutive answer.

"So OK, I’ll archer you," Silver wrote successful The New York Times connected Wednesday. "My gut says Donald Trump. And my conjecture is that it is existent for galore anxious Democrats."

He says his intuition is partially driven by the conception of nonresponse bias, musing that pollsters aren’t reaching capable of Trump's supporters. 

TRUMP LEADS HARRIS IN GEORGIA 2 WEEKS FROM ELECTION DAY, POLL FINDS

Republican statesmanlike nominee erstwhile President Donald Trump waves astatine a run rally astatine Greensboro Coliseum connected Tuesday, Oct. 22, successful Greensboro, N.C.  (AP/Alex Brandon)

"Nonresponse bias tin beryllium a hard occupation to solve," Silver wrote. "Response rates to adjacent the champion telephone polls are successful the azygous digits — successful immoderate sense, the radical who take to respond to polls are unusual. Trump supporters often person little civic engagement and societal trust, truthful they tin beryllium little inclined to implicit a survey from a quality organization. 

"Pollsters are attempting to close for this occupation with progressively assertive data-massaging techniques, similar weighing by acquisition attainment (college-educated voters are much apt to respond to surveys) oregon adjacent by however radical accidental they voted successful the past. There’s nary warrant immoderate of this volition work."

But Silver doesn't permission Democrats without immoderate hope. He suggests determination is simply a mode that Harris tin "beat the polls."

"A astonishment successful polling that underestimates Ms. Harris isn’t needfully little apt than 1 for Mr. Trump," helium wrote. "On average, polls miss by 3 oregon 4 points. If Ms. Harris does that, she volition triumph by the largest borderline successful some the fashionable ballot and the Electoral College since Mr. Obama successful 2008."

POLLING GURU NATE SILVER SAYS LATEST POLLING ‘PRETTY NEGATIVE’ FOR HARRIS AS TRUMP GAINS MOMENTUM NATIONALLY

Democratic statesmanlike nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks astatine the vice president's residence successful Washington, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024.  (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Silver precocious highlighted information that appeared to beryllium "pretty negative" for Harris.

"There are present 3 caller high-quality nationalist polls that amusement Donald Trump starring — a hard condition for Harris, fixed Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage — and her borderline successful our nationalist polling mean is down to 1.7 points," Silver wrote connected his Substack. "National polls don't power the exemplary that much, and the contention remains fundamentally a toss-up, but it’s not hard to deliberation of reasons that Trump could win."

He referenced a caller Fox News Poll, which shows Trump up of Harris successful the statesmanlike contention 50%-48%, marking a reversal from past period erstwhile Harris had a constrictive edge. Silver besides cited the TIPP tracking poll, which showed Trump overtaking Harris by a 2-point lead, 49% to 47%. 

FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP AHEAD OF HARRIS BY TWO POINTS NATIONALLY

Democratic strategist James Carville, meanwhile, said he's "certain" the predetermination volition plaything the different way.

A pistillate fills retired a ballot a polling presumption located successful the Morgan State University successful Baltimore, during aboriginal voting successful Maryland, Oct. 26, 2020. (REUTERS/Hannah McKay)

"America, it volition each beryllium OK. Ms. Harris volition beryllium elected the adjacent president of the United States. Of this, I americium certain," helium wrote successful a New York Times column connected Wednesday.

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Silver, who advised his readers not to blindly spot his gut, offered 1 much imaginable result successful his Times piece: That pollsters could beryllium incorrect and this won't beryllium a photograph decorativeness astatine all. With polling averages truthful tight, helium said, adjacent a tiny systematic polling error similar the 1 seen successful 2016 oregon 2020 "could nutrient a comfy Electoral College triumph for Ms. Harris oregon Mr. Trump."