Russian Gas Supplies to Europe via TurkStream Hit New All-Time High in January

Russian state supplies to Europe via the TurkStream state pipeline acceptable a caller grounds past week, according to information from the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG), the state-run TASS news agency reported Wednesday.

Gas flows done the TurkStream pipeline reached a grounds play level betwixt Feb. 3 and 9, with implicit 390 cardinal cubic meters (mcm) pumped done the Strandzha-2 compressor presumption connected the Turkish-Bulgarian border. This marks the highest play transportation since the pipeline's motorboat successful January 2020, surpassing the erstwhile grounds of 376 mcm, acceptable betwixt Jan. 13 and 19.

The pipeline besides acceptable a caller regular proviso record, peaking astatine 56.7 mcm connected Monday, breaking erstwhile highs respective times passim the week.

Since Ukraine unopen down its transit of Russian state to Europe connected Jan. 1, TurkStream has go the lone way delivering Russian state to European markets. Last twelvemonth Ukraine transmitted immoderate 15 cardinal cubic meters (bcm) of state to the EU, a proviso that has present stopped, expanding the unit connected Europe to find a caller root of state to regenerate this gas.

In addition, a acold wintertime means that EU state tanks person been emptying faster than mean and the EU volition person to find an further 10bcm to regenerate the excess state utilized this wintertime to powerfulness manufacture and vigor homes.

The shortfall has already sent prices of state up and led to speech of restarting the damaged Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. Of the 4 strands of the 2 pipelines, 1 was not damaged by the explosions in September 2022 and is inactive afloat of method gas. That strand could beryllium turned connected again time and has a capableness of 25bcm — precisely the magnitude of missing state that Europe needs.

Since the opening of the heating season, the EU has already withdrawn much than fractional of the accumulated wintertime substance reserves, totaling 53.2 bcm. The past play of state withdrawal from European underground retention facilities ended connected March 31, 2024, with a grounds 58.44% of reserves inactive successful place.

Gas prices rising

Gas prices deed a two-year precocious this week, rising supra $620 per 1000 cubic meters arsenic Europe braces for freezing weather. The EU’s state reserves successful underground retention facilities successful Europe dropped beneath 50% this week, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), portion the complaint of withdrawal successful February was astir 60% higher than successful 2024.

Rising request and a shortage of proviso person been made worse arsenic Asia starts hoarding state successful anticipation of harsh tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Title Transfer Facility (TTF) state prices for the summertime of 2025, expanding the projection to $580 per kcm (€50 per megawatt-hour) from the erstwhile estimation of $464 per kcm (€40 per MWh).

"A operation of weather-driven request and disappointing proviso has importantly tightened the state equilibrium successful Europe," the bank's analysts said successful their report. "As a result, we judge the portion volition request to pull further LNG imports this twelvemonth to negociate state inventories to comfy levels up of adjacent winter."

Goldman Sachs maintains its forecasts for 2026 and 2027 astatine $278 per kcm (€36 per MWh) and $253 per kcm (€24 per MWh), respectively.

Goldman Sachs besides highlighted the higher-than-expected LNG request successful Asia this twelvemonth and said it could propulsion TTF prices to the precocious bound of the fuel-switching range, presently adjacent $975 per kcm (€84 per MWh). Conversely, a imaginable bid statement betwixt Russia and Ukraine could pb to accrued flows of Russian state to Europe and little prices.

If Russian flows done Ukraine were to instrumentality to pre-war levels, TTF prices for summertime 2025 could autumn to betwixt $232 per kcm (€20 per MWh) and $349 per kcm (€30 per MWh), depending connected however aboriginal successful the twelvemonth pipeline exports commence.

As of Jan. 23, European earthy state prices person stabilized astatine astir $580 per kcm, adjacent a three-week high, arsenic markets equilibrium mixed signals astir proviso and demand.

In November 2024, Goldman Sachs had antecedently revised its 2025 TTF terms forecast upward to $464 per kcm (€40 per MWh), compared with $395 per kcm (€34 per MWh) previously, citing akin concerns implicit proviso and request dynamics.

TurkStream hits monthly records

The TurkStream pipeline transports Russian state to Turkey and confederate and southeastern Europe via the Black Sea. It has a full yearly capableness of 31.5 cardinal bcm, of which astir fractional goes to Turkey, which does not person its ain retention facilities. The pipeline originates from the Russkaya compressor presumption adjacent Anapa connected Russia’s Black Sea coast.

According to ENTSOG information cited by TASS, TurkStream state deliveries to Europe deed a monthly grounds of 1.56 bcm successful January. In 2024, full proscription via the way accrued 23% y/y, reaching 16.7 bcm, with Hungary receiving a grounds 7.6 bcm of this supply.

Hungary, a cardinal recipient of TurkStream gas, received assurances from Brussels connected Jan. 27 that the EU would question to reconstruct Ukraine’s transit of Russian gas, forestall disruptions to Russian lipid deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, and support the TurkStream infrastructure from attacks.

In return, Budapest agreed to widen EU sectoral sanctions against Russia for different six months beyond Jan. 31. Hungary has consistently opposed efforts to trim Russian vigor imports, citing concerns implicit its vigor security.

Talks are besides underway betwixt Baku and Kyiv connected the anticipation of connecting the state fields successful Azerbaijan to Europe via Ukraine’s pipeline web to summation the supplies of gas.

In 2025, Gazprom volition export 38 bcm to China, astir 25 bcm to Turkey and 15 bcm to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline crossed the Black Sea. The 15 bcm that Gazprom has mislaid owed to the suspension of Ukrainian transit would truthful person made up astir 16% of this export portfolio: a noticeable but not cardinal volume.

This nonfiction archetypal appeared successful bne IntelliNews.