Rwanda-DRC tension: Have rebels taken control of Congolese city? What next?

The M23 rebel radical has declared the cardinal metropolis of Goma nether its control, signalling a large stroke to the Congolese service and a superior escalation successful the years-long struggle that has seen hundreds of radical killed and millions displaced successful the eastbound Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Goma’s reported seizure connected Monday came aft M23 – which the United Nations says is backed by neighbouring Rwanda – precocious rapidly connected Congolese service positions past week. Throughout the day, a barrage of gunfire and explosions rocked the city, which is the superior of North Kivu state and a determination hub for information and humanitarian efforts.

Hundreds of thousands of residents and antecedently displaced radical fled to neighbouring towns successful panic. Social media footage showed immense crowds moving connected ft and motorbikes, carrying luggage connected their heads and backs.

The crisis, which reignited successful 2022, has displaced millions of civilians successful the eastbound DRC. More than 237,000 radical were displaced successful January alone, according to a caller study by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

Here’s what you request to cognize astir M23’s ambitions and the latest fighting:

Who are the M23 rebels and who backs them?

M23, oregon the March 23 Movement, is 1 of hundreds of equipped groups operating successful the eastbound DRC and seeking to power captious mineral mines. The radical is composed of Tutsi fighters and claims to beryllium warring for the rights of the DRC’s number Tutsi population. It emerged successful 2012 aft a radical from the equipped forces of the DRC (FARDC) broke away, complaining of ill-treatment.

The DRC authorities and the UN impeach Rwanda nether President Paul Kagame of supporting M23 with soldiers and weapons successful a bid to power the mineral-rich eastbound DRC. Rwanda denies the complaint and accuses the DRC of harbouring members of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, an anti-Kagame rebel radical that was progressive successful the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The UN estimates determination are up to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers successful the DRC.

In 2012, M23 archetypal seized Goma, but the Congolese army, supported by a UN force, pushed the rebels backmost into the eastbound hills connected the borderline with Rwanda successful 2013.

However, the DRC faced a resurgence of M23 unit successful 2022. The radical has since precocious connected Goma, seizing territory successful battles with the Congolese service and 2 peacekeeping missions: the UN ngo to the DRC (MONUSCO) and the South African Development Community (SADC) Mission successful the DRC. South African troops, arsenic portion of the UN mission, were important successful the 2013 decision of M23.

European mercenaries from France, Romania and Belarus besides enactment the Congolese army.

People displaced by warring with M23 rebels marque their mode to the centre of Goma connected January 26, 2025 [Moses Sawasawa/AP]

What happened successful the lead-up to Monday’s events?

M23 has intensified its violative connected Goma since the opening of the year, capturing adjacent towns similar Sake and Minova on the way.

On Friday, Major General Peter Cirimwami, the subject politician of North Kivu province, was killed connected the beforehand lines.

Civilians from M23-captured areas fled to Goma though they were unsure of their information there.

“We are going to Goma, but I heard that determination are bombs successful Goma too, truthful present we don’t cognize wherever to go,” Adele Shimiye told The Associated Press quality agency. Others fled to borderline crossings with Rwanda wherever migration officials cautiously checked question documents.

On Saturday, M23 said it would seizure Goma and warned the service and peacekeepers to surrender by 3am (01:00 GMT) connected Monday.

At a UN Security Council exigency gathering connected Sunday, officials condemned the M23 beforehand and confirmed that 13 peacekeepers were killed from Friday to Saturday. South Africa said 9 of its soldiers were killed trying to fend disconnected M23’s beforehand connected Goma portion the UN said 3 Malawian soldiers and 1 Uruguayan were besides killed.

Bintou Keita, the UN’s peculiar typical to the DRC, said astatine the gathering that nonessential UN unit had begun evacuating but warned that “we are trapped” arsenic M23 declared the airspace implicit Goma closed and roads to the metropolis were blocked.

Meanwhile, the United States, United Kingdom and France warned their citizens to permission Goma arsenic residents poured retired of the city.

How did M23’s reported seizure of Goma happen?

On Sunday nighttime astir 10:30pm (20:30 GMT), M23 fighters entered Goma amid dense gunfire and explosions. Residents posted videos connected societal media showing heavy equipped M23 fighters wearing subject apparel and patrolling the main streets.

About 100 authorities soldiers released their weapons to Uruguayan MONUSCO troops connected Sunday nighttime portion hundreds of European mercenaries are besides believed to person surrendered their weapons aft M23 threatened to pain them alive, according to reporting by Sky News.

“More than a 100 FARDC soldiers are sheltered successful the facilities of the ‘Siempre Presente’ basal awaiting the [disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) process,” the Uruguay service said successful a connection connected X connected Sunday.

In a connection connected Monday, M23 said it had “liberated” Goma and urged those remaining successful the metropolis to “remain calm”. The radical besides ordered Congolese troops to “hand over” their weapons to MONUSCO and stitchery astatine the cardinal stadium.

Goma was mostly quiescent connected Monday, but gunfire rang retired successful parts of the city, including adjacent the airport, successful the metropolis centre and connected the border, the Reuters quality bureau reported. Congolese peculiar forces and government-aligned militia were inactive engaging M23 rebels connected the outskirts of the city, residents said.

Corneille Nangaa – the person of the Congo River Alliance, which includes the M23 – told Reuters connected Monday that his forces were successful power of Goma. “They [Congolese service soldiers] person started to surrender, but it takes time,” helium said.

Meanwhile, determination are reports that rebels looted and attacked infrastructure. The AFP quality bureau reported a jailbreak astatine a Goma situation connected Monday aft which the jailhouse was torched.

“Goma’s seizure by the M23 is simply a monolithic setback for the DRC authorities,” Vincent Rouget, an expert astatine Control Risks, a planetary information consultancy, told Al Jazeera, adding that the layout and positioning of the metropolis besides contiguous challenges.

“You person the volcano connected 1 side, the water connected the other, and it’s successful highly adjacent proximity to the Rwandan border. That means that erstwhile you person mislaid Goma, it’s going to beryllium highly hard for the DRC service to recapture the metropolis militarily,” helium said.

Congolese soldiers deploy extracurricular Goma arsenic M23 rebels adjacent the municipality [File: Moses Sawasawa/AP Photo]

What person DRC and Rwandan governments said?

Congolese authorities spokesperson Patrick Muyaya, successful a connection posted connected X connected Monday, announced the beingness of the Rwandan service successful Goma.

“The authorities continues to enactment to debar carnage and nonaccomplishment of quality beingness successful presumption of the manifest intentions of Rwanda,” helium said, telling residents to enactment location and refrain from carrying retired vandalism and looting.

In a video posted connected X, helium called for the extortion of civilians and said the DRC was “in a warfare concern wherever the quality is changing”.

DRC President Felix Tshisekedi has not yet commented.

Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner said astatine the UN Security Council gathering connected Sunday that Rwandan troops crossing the borderline into Goma was a “declaration of war” by Rwanda and the DRC was severing each diplomatic ties. Wagner besides called connected countries to authorisation Rwanda.

Rwanda’s UN ambassador, Ernest Rwamucyo, did not corroborate oregon contradict the DRC’s claims astatine the gathering but said the DRC could person averted the situation if it had “demonstrated a genuine committedness to peace”.

What person different countries said?

Kenyan President William Ruto – president of the Eastern African Countries (EAC) determination bloc, to which the DRC and Rwanda beryllium – called for an exigency gathering of EAC leaders by Tuesday, saying the portion had a “critical work successful de-escalating unit and facilitating dialogue” betwixt each sides.

Ruto besides said helium spoke to Tshisekedi and Kagame connected Sunday evening and some leaders confirmed attendance astatine the EAC meeting.

“It’s the champion imaginable for a ceasefire,” an expert successful Goma who spoke connected information of anonymity told Al Jazeera. “At the moment, the concern is rather dicey due to the fact that the weapons they’re utilizing are not meant for municipality warfare.”

From left, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Angolan President Joao Lourenco and DRC President Felix Tshisekedi be a gathering successful Luanda connected July 6, 2022, during a surge successful unit successful the eastbound DRC [Jorge Nsimba/AFP]

Rouget said that successful the lead-up to Monday, it looked similar determination was a “decisive push” by M23 and its backers to chopped Goma disconnected from resupply routes linking it to different Congolese cities, adding: “The timing of the propulsion is astir apt not coincidental.”

“One happening we had said for a portion is that the main backer of M23, according to the UN radical of experts – that is, Rwanda – was not going to beryllium consenting to hazard the monolithic PR backlash of an cognition successful Goma. But the alteration successful the medication successful the US perchance whitethorn person played a relation successful changing the calculation determination and the reasoning that, actually, the diplomatic blowback whitethorn not beryllium arsenic terrible arsenic erstwhile feared,” helium told Al Jazeera.

At the Security Council meeting, the US called for a ceasefire and urged Rwanda to retreat enactment from M23. Acting US Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Shea warned that Washington would “consider each the tools astatine its disposal” to clasp accountable those liable for sustaining the conflict.

Meanwhile, France has sided with the DRC. “As Goma prepares to fall, France expresses its solidarity with the Democratic Republic of Congo and its territorial integrity. France firmly condemns the offensive,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said connected Monday.

What happens next?

All eyes are connected Ruto arsenic analysts look to spot however the EAC volition effort to negociate a ceasefire. Previous ceasefires negotiated by Angola were violated by some sides.

“[Capturing Goma] puts the M23 successful a overmuch stronger presumption to beryllium capable to proceed its offensive,” Rouget said. “We’re not needfully astatine the extremity of the group’s progression successful eastbound Congo. We tin spot further clashes, further progressions into different cities.”

Goma’s seizure could besides dramatically worsen 1 of Africa’s longest wars and displace thousands much civilians, analysts said. More than a 3rd of the colonisation of North Kivu is displaced, according to the UN.

Diplomatic tensions betwixt Rwanda and South Africa are besides apt to deepen aft the decease of the peacekeepers past week, the unnamed expert successful Goma told Al Jazeera, adding: “It won’t beryllium concern arsenic accustomed betwixt Rwanda and SADC.”

Already, the 2 governments person little than lukewarm relations: Assassinations of Rwandan dissidents successful South Africa successful 2014 were traced to Kigali, starring some sides to temporarily sever diplomatic ties.

Jason Stearns, a researcher connected the DRC, said countries similar the US tin instrumentality enactment to halt Rwanda’s enactment of M23. “In the past, donors person utilized that leverage,” Stearns wrote successful the Financial Times this week, referring to 2012 erstwhile the US and different Western countries withdrew assistance to Rwanda and erstwhile M23 was subsequently defeated.

But “this clip astir we look to beryllium surviving successful a antithetic world, 1 successful which migration, concern investments, and nationalist concerns are much important than humanitarianism, and wherever apathy trumps solidarity,” helium wrote.