Super Bowl LIX Bettors Guide: Eagles vs. Chiefs

SUPER BOWL LIX: EAGLES vs. CHIEFS successful NEW ORLEANS

6:30 p.m., Chiefs by 1 ½, 49 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Let’s statesman with 1 undeniable acceptable of facts. While luck and favorable calls person surely contributed to the Chiefs’ tally of success, they nevertheless person a generational backmost successful Patrick Mahomes, an NFL playoff record-holding receiver successful Travis Kelce, a stud DT successful Chris Jones, a shutdown cornerback successful Trent McDuffie, the league’s champion play caller successful Andy Reid and a antiaircraft coordinator whose schemes person won 3 Super Bowls successful Steve Spagnuolo. That’s what the Eagles are up against.

At the aforesaid time, the Eagles bring into the crippled a magnitude that hasn’t been seen successful a Super Bowl successful a generation, a breakaway moving menace successful Saquon Barkley. Nearly each caller Super Bowl has been astir shutting down the opponent’s passing game. Here, the cardinal to the crippled is however Kansas City limits Barkley’s effectiveness. Spags volition surely alteration his defence to absorption connected Barkley (instead of spying connected Josh Allen successful the rubric game) but portion the Chiefs finished with a apical 10 rushing defense, their champion occurrence came aboriginal successful the season. Notably, they person allowed an mean of 148 yards successful their 2 playoff games and were not effectual against Buffalo’s James Cook. Jones’ beingness successful the mediate is simply a immense deterrent but the Eagles tally it wrong and extracurricular the tackles astatine astir the aforesaid complaint and usage their huge, diversion O-line to onslaught the perimeter, springing Barkley. Spagnuolo attacks the tally by sending his linebackers downhill. Barkley, of course, is adept astatine making tacklers miss, particularly if they are over-aggressive. O-line injuries are the X-factor with some C Cam Jurgens (back) and OG Landon Dickerson (knee) hurting. Both, however, practiced afloat with the 2 weeks’ clip seemingly beneficial.

The aforesaid question tin beryllium asked of QB Jalen Hurts, who, portion moving amended successful the NFC title game, inactive looked a spot unsure erstwhile making crisp cuts. Should Hurts beryllium adjacent to regaining his mean mobility, the Chiefs volition not capable to usage arsenic galore resources against Barkley. Hurts’ wounded is nary longer affecting his quality to propulsion and the Eagles volition instrumentality shots downfield. No 1 has dared situation McDuffie, who volition enactment up other A.J. Brown, the feline who got the champion of him erstwhile McDuffie was a rookie successful Super Bowl LVII. Given however the carnal Brown excels against antheral coverage, Hurts volition not shy away. Also origin successful Dallas Goedert arsenic a target. The Chiefs gave up arsenic galore passing yards to choky ends arsenic immoderate squad successful the NFL. The Eagles don’t find themselves successful third-and-long situations that often but erstwhile they do, Spagnuolo sends the location and Hurts has 1 of the worst passer ratings against the blitz. Outside of George Karlaftis erstwhile applied arsenic an borderline rusher, K.C.’s walk unreserved isn’t scary erstwhile playing it straight. Spags did a masterful occupation of scheming against Buffalo’s fourth-and-short plays nary substance what anyone thinks of that review, but the Eagles’ tush-push is successful a class by itself.

All that said, the Eagles defence is much susceptible of stopping the Chiefs onslaught than vice versa. Mahomes is precise acquainted with Vic Fangio’s defense. He did good erstwhile helium faced it against the Broncos and past twelvemonth successful the playoffs against the Dolphins. But those squad didn’t person a ascendant antiaircraft beforehand similar the 1 Fangio has this year. It should clasp the Chiefs’ mundane moving crippled successful cheque and has a accidental to get to Mahomes early. Most of the Philly walk unit comes from the inside, wherever Jalen Carter (fighting an illness) creates havoc. Fast unit into a QB’s look has agelong been a look for occurrence against mobile QBs similar Mahomes. Both of K.C.’s OTs are suspect, truthful we should spot plentifulness of stunts and games to exploit that.

The fascinating happening to ticker is whether Fangio varies from his umbrella strategy of coverage, which forces an discourtesy to settee for underneath throws. That, of course, is precisely however the Chiefs determination the shot and successful Kelce, they person a choky extremity who’s amended than anyone astatine uncovering brushed spots successful zones. Meanwhile Playoff Pat is ever susceptible of taking implicit a game, specifically whenever the concern calls for it.

If you’re a trends person, the astir absorbing 1 of each is that since 2003, teams with a first-round bye are 0-10 ATS against teams that played the archetypal week. The ’09 Steelers are the lone specified squad to person won SU. And, with truthful overmuch riding connected turnovers, it should beryllium noted that Philly has gone 5 consecutive games without a turnover and has a turnover borderline of 20-2 successful its past six games.

The bottommost line? It’s a coin toss. The Chiefs ever fig retired ways to win. The Eagles person much ways to win. The Chiefs person the intangibles. The Eagles person the deeper roster. Considering everything, it’s a thin to the squad down the turnpike, with a prop stake connected Saquon arsenic MVP.

Turning to the total, we are talking astir 2 outstanding defenses, with the Eagles elite. They person held 15 of their past 16 opponents to 23 oregon less points. Yes, some teams were progressive successful high-scoring games past year. But implicit the people of the season, the Chiefs were a methodical squad and the Eagles don’t caput playing that way. What’s more, it mightiness beryllium the lone mode the Chiefs triumph this. We’re seeing a archetypal fractional wherever the teams play chess, feeling each different out, truthful a archetypal fractional nether is decidedly the mode to go, leaning toward the 2nd fractional under. The afloat crippled full seems to beryllium a spot inflated and whitethorn spell adjacent higher, making it a thin to the  under.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.

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LAST WEEK: 1-1, 0-2 over/under

POSTSEASON: 5-6-1, 6-6 over/under

BEST BETS: 3-0