Supreme Court upholds Pennsylvania provisional ballot ruling, in a major loss for GOP

The Supreme Court connected Friday upheld a authorities tribunal ruling that allowed for the counting of definite provisional ballots, successful a large setback for the authorities GOP and Republican National Committee conscionable 4 days earlier the election.

The Republican National Committee and the authorities GOP filed an exigency entreaty to the nation's apical tribunal past week seeking to temporarily halt a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling that ordered the authorities to number voters whose provisional ballots had been incorrectly filled retired oregon were missing an interior "secrecy" envelope. 

Attorneys for the Republican Party urged the Supreme Court to assistance a afloat enactment of the state’s decision, penning successful a last reply little submitted Thursday evening that specified an bid would "prevent aggregate forms" of "irreparable harm" to the state. 

At a minimum, the tribunal was urged to assistance a "segregation order" to let the ballots to beryllium acceptable speech and counted separately. 

"The existent provisional ballots incorporate nary identifying information, lone a vote," the GOP's lawyers wrote. "Once ballots are separated from their outer envelopes, determination is nary mode to retroactively fig out which ballots were illegally cast. In different words, erstwhile the ovum is scrambled, it cannot beryllium unscrambled."

THE 1.6M VOTERS WHO COULD DETERMINE THE US ELECTION DON’T CURRENTLY RESIDE IN THE COUNTRY

A idiosyncratic walks past Montgomery County's elector services van successful King of Prussia, Pa., Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024.  (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

At contented is simply a little tribunal ruling successful Butler County, Pa., wherever a section predetermination committee had disqualified provisional ballots formed by 2 residents successful the 2024 superior election. That duo joined the Pennsylvania Democratic Party successful a suit that sought to person their votes counted, which yet was the result granted by a authorities Commonwealth Court and upheld past week by a 4-3 Pennsylvania Supreme Court majority.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court noted successful its ruling that provisional votes tin beryllium counted lone aft a person’s eligibility to ballot and the rejection of their mail-in ballot are confirmed. 

"Counting Electors’ provisional ballots, erstwhile their message ballots are void for failing to usage a Secrecy Envelope, is simply a statutory right," authorities Supreme Court Justice Christine Donohue wrote successful the bulk opinion, adding that the regularisation successful question is "intended to alleviate imaginable disenfranchisement for eligible voters."

In their effect to the Supreme Court Wednesday, opponents argued that Republican plaintiffs had near retired important lawsuit past successful the authorities — primarily, that successful the six years since Pennsylvania's General Assembly had updated its voting instrumentality successful 2019 to let mail-in ballots, "most region boards of elections, and astir Pennsylvania courts to see the issue, person counted provisional ballots submitted by voters who had made a disqualifying mistake successful attempting to implicit their message ballots." 

In fact, Butler County was among the fewer counties that refused to number provisional ballots for votes that were lacking secrecy envelopes, until it became the taxable of a suit earlier this twelvemonth by the 2 plaintiffs whose votes were not counted.

"Applicants, advancing a divergent mentation of authorities law, asked the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to instrumentality the lawsuit and determine it earlier the 2024 General Election," they wrote. "Last week the Pennsylvania Supreme Court did conscionable that. That the RNC does not similar the effect is nary crushed for this Court to intervene connected an exigency ground and disrupt the presumption quo connected the eve of the election." 

That was contested by Republican plaintiffs. In joining the authorities GOP successful the lawsuit, lawyers for the Republican Party described the lawsuit arsenic 1 of "paramount nationalist importance, perchance affecting tens of thousands of votes successful a authorities which galore expect could beryllium decisive successful power of the U.S. Senate oregon adjacent the 2024 statesmanlike election."

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Supporters astatine a run rally for erstwhile President Donald Trump successful Latrobe, Pennsylvania. (Jeff Swensen for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The entreaty comes arsenic Republicans person filed astir 100 election-related tribunal challenges successful caller weeks, ineligible challenges they accidental are aimed astatine preventing elector fraud done absentee and mail-in ballots. (Democrats, successful return, person sought to presumption themselves arsenic the enactment that supports escaped and just elections, seizing connected the Republican lawsuits arsenic a means of disenfranchising voters.)

Many of the lawsuits person been filed successful 1 of 7 plaything states considered pivotal for either campaigner to triumph the presidency.

In Pennsylvania, the Republican Party’s determination to articulation a suit implicit provisional ballots successful the last days of the run is apt a strategical move, analysts said—a "placeholder" of sorts that allows them to mention a preexisting ineligible situation successful a plaything authorities that they tin constituent to successful pushing for courts to enactment aft an election.

It’s "absolutely" easier to get a tribunal to impact itself successful a lawsuit aft an predetermination if plaintiffs already person a ineligible situation connected the books, Andrew McCarthy, a erstwhile U.S. adjunct lawyer wide for the Southern District of New York, told Fox News Digital successful an interview.

In those cases, "you could astatine slightest look [judges] successful the oculus and say, ‘look. I'm not asking you to alteration the effect of the election, I'm asking you to code the rules, which is what we tried to bash before,’" McCarthy said.

This is particularly important successful Pennsylvania, the battleground authorities with the astir electoral votes astatine involvement successful 2024. 

APPEALS COURT RULES AGAINST GOP IN CASE CHALLENGING 225K VOTER REGISTRATIONS IN NORTH CAROLINA 

Voters capable retired their ballots connected Election Day successful Columbus, Ohio connected November 7, 2023. Residents of Ohio voted November 7, 2023 to enshrine the close to an termination successful the Republican-run US state's constitution, US media projected, successful what could beryllium a bellwether for an contented which is apt to predominate adjacent year's statesmanlike race. (Getty Images)

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It is unclear however galore residents successful Pennsylvania volition be impacted by the provisional ballot ruling, and the Republican Party did not instantly respond to Fox News’ petition for comment.

Estimates person been murky astatine best: A 2021 survey conducted by the MIT Election Data and Science Lab estimated astir 1.1% of mail-in ballots were not counted owed to missing secrecy envelopes. Mail-in ballots successful Pennsylvania person been little truthful acold successful 2024 than 2020, erstwhile galore relied connected that process owed to COVID-19 precautions.

More recently, New York University instrumentality prof Richard Pildes estimated that the case could impact betwixt 400 and 4,000 ballots successful the authorities – though his "back-of-the-napkin" mathematics focused solely connected bare ballots, and not others sent with incomplete information.

In a adjacent race, the question of caller tribunal cases has led immoderate observers to fearfulness the lawsuits volition either disenfranchise would-be voters, support 1 oregon the different candidate's supporters from participating successful the predetermination oregon sow uncertainty astir the predetermination results.

But analysts told Fox News they uncertainty that immoderate of these lawsuits volition person a protracted interaction connected the 2024 election, contempt the further scrutiny and media coverage. 

"In the 5 statesmanlike elections I've covered, I don't deliberation immoderate pre-election situation had a immense impact," George Washington University instrumentality prof Jonathan Turley told Fox News Digital successful a caller interview.

"I deliberation we're going to person a batch of litigation, but I would beryllium amazed if we person immoderate jugular hits," Turley said.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 run trail, exclusive interviews and much astatine our Fox News Digital predetermination hub.