Syria’s Baath party dissolved: What happens next?

Syria’s erstwhile governing party, the Baath, is nary more.

The enactment had ruled the state for decades until it was overthrown, on with erstwhile Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, connected December 8 aft absorption factions marched into Damascus. Wednesday’s announcement that the enactment would beryllium dissolved simply formalised that process.

But it wasn’t the lone radical to beryllium disbanded by the authorities – each equipped factions were besides officially dissolved, with the program being to integrate erstwhile absorption forces into a caller governmental structure.

Among the group’s disbanded was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the radical led by Syria’s de facto ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who took connected an undetermined impermanent relation arsenic the country’s president connected Wednesday.

The determination comes arsenic nary astonishment arsenic members of Syria’s transitional authorities person signalled for weeks that HTS and different groups would beryllium disbanded. The dissolution of the Syrian Baath enactment nevertheless is simply a beardown symbolic infinitesimal aft much than 5 decades of one-party rule.

What person Syria’s caller leaders announced?

Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, was officially named president for a transitional signifier and the country’s constitution, adopted successful 2012, was suspended.

The country’s assorted equipped factions, which marched connected Damascus and deposed the aged authorities were dissolved, with the volition to sorb them into authoritative authorities institutions.

“All subject factions are dissolved … and integrated into authorities institutions,” the authorities quality agency, SANA reported Hassan Abdel Ghani, a spokesperson for the caller government, arsenic saying. He announced “the dissolution of the defunct regime’s army” and notorious information agencies, arsenic good arsenic the long-ruling Baath party.

What is the Baath Party?

The Arab Socialist Baath Party – to springiness the enactment its afloat sanction – was founded by 2 Syrians, Michel Aflaq and Salah al-Din al-Bitar, successful 1947 arsenic a pan-Arab nationalist and socialist party. The Syrian subdivision was 1 constituent of this pan-Arab determination party, but aboriginal became a subject dictatorship focused connected Syria. The Iraqi subdivision besides became a subject dictatorship nether Saddam Hussein.

In Syria, the Baathists came to powerfulness successful a 1963 coup – the aforesaid twelvemonth the enactment came to powerfulness successful Iraq. Three years aboriginal – successful 1966 – a helping of the enactment led by Salah Jadid and Hafez al-Assad, past a Baathist wide and besides begetter of the precocious deposed President Bashar al-Assad, staged an interior coup d’etat to depose Aflaq and al-Bitar.

Al-Assad elder mounted yet different coup successful 1970 to instrumentality singular power of the party, which helium led until his decease successful 2000. From then, his son, Bashar, took the mantle and led the enactment until December 8, 2024, erstwhile helium fled to Moscow successful the aboriginal hours of the greeting pursuing a lightning beforehand crossed the state by the Syrian opposition.

What does the dissolution of the Baath enactment mean for Syria?

The dissolution of the Baath enactment was wide seen arsenic a necessity successful Syria.

Radwan Ziadeh, elder expert astatine the Arab Center Washington DC, a probe organisation, said these announcements signalled the “transition of powerfulness into civilian hands”.

The enactment was intimately affiliated with the aged authorities and truthful had small imaginable for immoderate aboriginal successful post-revolution Syria. It was besides seen arsenic a cardinal ideological pillar for a governing authorization that tolerated small dissent, imprisoning and sidesplitting hundreds of thousands of opponents. Indeed, successful the aboriginal hours of December 8, aft al-Assad fled to Moscow, Syrians raided Baath enactment offices and trampled enactment flags.

“There is nary aboriginal for them considering their bloodstained record,” Elia Ayoub, researcher and writer of the Hauntologies newsletter, said.

A subordinate of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is being dissolved, stands defender adjacent an representation of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad astatine the 4th part office successful Damascus, Syria, connected January 23, 2025 [Yamam Al Shaar/Reuters]

Why was HTS dissolved arsenic well?

After the 2011 Arab Spring uprising turned into a civilian war, the absorption to al-Assad fractured into galore groups.

Jabhat al-Nusra was an al-Qaeda offshoot that yet broke with the radical and became Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

It established authorization implicit Syria’s northeast, wherever it applied its blimpish regularisation from its basal successful Idlib.

In precocious 2024, it led the cognition to retake Syria’s large cities – Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus – from the al-Assad regime. After the authorities fell, al-Sharaa became Syria’s de facto ruler, gathering with overseas emissaries and notables.

Under al-Sharaa, HTS had go the de facto governing party successful Syria and acceptable up an interim authorities predominantly composed of officials from the section authorities it had tally successful Idlib.

Still, the radical had agelong stated the volition to dissolve truthful that a caller authorities could beryllium formed.

The caller administration’s mid- to semipermanent extremity is to signifier a authorities with its ain institutions. The stated program is to merge HTS and different rebel factions into a due information work that volition marque up the military, wide information and borderline control, and constabulary force.

Is determination a timeline for the caller authorities and authorities institutions to beryllium formed?

Not a steadfast one.

Al-Sharaa antecedently pledged to oversee Syria’s governmental modulation including holding a nationalist dialog with antithetic stakeholders, forming an inclusive authorities and yet holding elections. However, helium has said it could instrumentality arsenic agelong arsenic 4 years earlier elections tin instrumentality place.

What happens next?

Al-Sharaa volition signifier a impermanent legislative assembly to oversee the country’s transitional signifier until a caller constitution is adopted. Who the members of the caller assembly volition beryllium has yet to beryllium announced.

Impatience is rising among immoderate Syrians. One of the criticisms coming from Syrian civilian nine towards the caller medication has been its nonaccomplishment to pass oregon conscionable the families of the country’s galore thousands of radical who disappeared nether al-Assad’s regime.

“There is inactive nary existent program and until present they don’t look to person an volition for superior accountability for [al-]Assad and authorities crimes,” Ayoub said.

“The deficiency of accountability successful presumption of not doing excessively overmuch oregon successful immoderate cases obstructing the process of uncovering grounds erstwhile it comes [to issues of accountability, specified as] wide graves are concerning due to the fact that galore hundreds of thousands, if not more, volition beryllium near successful limbo astir what happened to loved ones.”

What has the absorption to this determination been?

Mixed.

While galore Syrians and observers expected the disbanding of HTS and the Baath enactment to happen, determination are concerns astir practice and establishing a steadfast timeline for the emergence of a caller state.

The assemblage contiguous astatine the announcement connected Wednesday was overwhelmingly made up of subject figures. While fewer would person been amazed that al-Sharaa was granted the rubric of president during the transitional phase, immoderate commentators inactive criticised the deficiency of a transparent oregon immoderate antiauthoritarian process.

Tonight is simply a confirmation of each the measures taken by the authorities of HTS since its accomplishment to power: to fortify and consolidate the domination of HTS implicit the authorities and its institutions, establishing a caller authoritarian authorities with a neoliberal economical orientation.

— Joseph Daher (@JosephDaher19) January 29, 2025

Furthermore, questions stay astir however al-Sharaa and the interim medication volition bring unneurotic a divers radical of equipped factions present that determination is nary unified force successful al-Assad.

Among the large factions that inactive person not agreed to articulation al-Sharaa’s caller task are the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who person been warring the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) successful bluish Syria.

Still, determination is besides country for immoderate optimism considering the hard 14-year play Syria has endured since the Arab Spring of 2011, analysts say.

“Emphasising that this is simply a modulation play – and impermanent – and al-Sharaa is simply a president for the transitional play is, broadly speaking successful the discourse of Syria, much affirmative than negative,” Ayoub said.